MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 27, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · NYM · batting 5Carson Benge
Bats leftTalent grade CBalancedHot
.326wOBA vs LHP.335xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · WSHDJ Herz
Throws leftBTB Stuff 96Stable
3.4projected K21%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
DJ Herz's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 54% usage, 93.5 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +16.0″ rise. Carson Benge: wOBA .359 vs league .347 (about even).Fastball 54%Changeup: 25% usage, 83.5 mph, +15.6″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Carson Benge: wOBA .338 vs league .326 (about even).Changeup 25%Slider: 18% usage, 86.3 mph, -0.1″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Carson Benge: wOBA .298 vs league .286 (about even).Slider 18%Curveball: 3% usage, 81.2 mph, 0.0″ arm side, -2.0″ rise. Carson Benge: wOBA .293 vs league .281 (about even).Curveball 3%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Carson Benge's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Carson Benge's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Home run: 99.8 mph at 30°Single: 86.9 mph at 3°Out: 79.1 mph at 8°Single: 89.9 mph at 22°Out: 100.7 mph at 36°Out: 100.6 mph at -8°Out: 104.8 mph at 8°Out: 97.0 mph at 34°Double: 101.4 mph at 18°Double: 86.2 mph at 13°Out: 90.4 mph at 38°Out: 92.4 mph at 27°Single: 98.8 mph at 6°Out: 69.4 mph at 55°Out: 91.5 mph at 33°Single: 58.6 mph at -61°Home run: 100.3 mph at 28°Single: 78.7 mph at 17°Single: 82.5 mph at 20°Single: 98.7 mph at 4°Out: 74.8 mph at 10°Single: 103.7 mph at 7°Out: 98.3 mph at 38°Out: 84.1 mph at 42°Out: 89.8 mph at 41°Out: 102.8 mph at 32°Out: 75.8 mph at -4°Out: 96.9 mph at 52°Home run: 101.8 mph at 31°Out: 103.2 mph at 33°Out: 62.2 mph at 19°Out: 100.3 mph at 35°Single: 91.0 mph at -2°Out: 84.6 mph at 24°Single: 70.2 mph at 21°Out: 84.4 mph at -12°Out: 102.0 mph at 10°Single: 100.5 mph at 10°Home run: 105.2 mph at 43°Out: 94.3 mph at 20°
48% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.8%63.8%0.0
2+ total bases34.7%35.3%-0.7
Home run10.4%12.0%-1.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Carson Benge hits
Carson Benge · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .182 shrunk (raw .035 on 5 PA) · league .243 · 13 pitches seen.182xwOBA .336 shrunk (raw .416 on 6 PA) · league .296 · 19 pitches seen.336xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .376 on 9 PA) · league .254 · 22 pitches seen.306xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .351 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 33 pitches seen.326xwOBA .459 shrunk (raw .528 on 13 PA) · league .385 · 31 pitches seen.459xwOBA .423 shrunk (raw .522 on 10 PA) · league .340 · 33 pitches seen.423xwOBA .241 shrunk (raw .193 on 8 PA) · league .273 · 25 pitches seen.241xwOBA .427 shrunk (raw .659 on 4 PA) · league .350 · 22 pitches seen.427xwOBA .318 shrunk (raw .434 on 2 PA) · league .299 · 16 pitches seen.318xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .062 on 4 PA) · league .302 · 37 pitches seen.242xwOBA .414 shrunk (raw .482 on 12 PA) · league .346 · 54 pitches seen.414xwOBA .223 shrunk (raw .193 on 26 PA) · league .289 · 124 pitches seen.223xwOBA .205 shrunk (raw .050 on 4 PA) · league .257 · 42 pitches seen.205
vs LHP · 471 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 19%38%Whiff 10% of 10 swings · league 21%10%Whiff 6% of 17 swings · league 23%6%Whiff 19% of 21 swings · league 9%19%Whiff 4% of 25 swings · league 10%4%Whiff 5% of 22 swings · league 11%5%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 17%17%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 14%11%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 25%38%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 29%18%Whiff 51% of 39 swings · league 48%51%Whiff 42% of 12 swings · league 34%42%
vs LHP · 471 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 62% of 13 pitches · league 63%62%Swings at 53% of 19 pitches · league 71%53%Swings at 77% of 22 pitches · league 64%77%Swings at 64% of 33 pitches · league 67%64%Swings at 81% of 31 pitches · league 76%81%Swings at 67% of 33 pitches · league 72%67%Swings at 48% of 25 pitches · league 59%48%Swings at 41% of 22 pitches · league 68%41%Swings at 69% of 16 pitches · league 66%69%Swings at 22% of 37 pitches · league 30%22%Swings at 20% of 54 pitches · league 26%20%Swings at 32% of 124 pitches · league 31%32%Swings at 29% of 42 pitches · league 41%29%
vs LHP · 471 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Carson Benge against each of DJ Herz's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball54%93.5+13″ / +16″.359.34713.9%15.4%48About league average vs these
Changeup25%83.5+16″ / +6″.338.32616.8%19.1%23About league average vs these
Slider18%86.3-0″ / +3″.298.28627.5%32.4%31About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball3%81.20″ / -2″.293.28127.6%32.6%25About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Carson Benge · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.308.400.692.453.43020.0%13.3%22.2%97.2104.810.0%70.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1431.308.419.500.403.41422.6%12.9%18.3%90.4104.85.3%47.4%57.9%
Last 30 G2653.283.377.391.347.36326.4%11.3%20.2%86.5104.83.1%31.2%50.0%
90 days56112.245.312.412.318.33627.7%8.0%21.5%86.6107.78.5%35.2%42.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 71 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 27%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G57.333.429.333.357.23628.6%14.3%25.0%81.389.90.0%0.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1437.303.378.576.408.37216.2%8.1%15.4%89.7105.214.8%37.0%37.0%
Last 30 G2879.282.354.451.354.32121.5%8.9%24.1%86.1105.29.3%27.8%37.0%
90 days69207.324.391.481.396.34418.8%8.7%19.9%87.8107.65.5%35.9%35.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 145 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 24%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.316.409.579.423.36822.7%13.6%23.3%92.7104.87.1%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1568.305.397.542.406.39119.1%10.3%16.8%90.0105.210.9%41.3%45.7%
Last 30 G30132.282.364.427.352.33823.5%9.8%22.5%86.2105.27.0%29.1%41.9%
90 days74319.296.364.456.368.34121.9%8.5%20.5%87.4107.76.5%35.6%38.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 216 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 25%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 7%
Carson Benge · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating77Above average
Last 100 pitches95trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.370 / .346running 24 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSinker89.499.830.942Home run
Sep 25RHPChangeup89.286.93.409Single
Sep 24RHPCutter90.879.18.314Out
Sep 24RHPSlider83.389.922.187Single
Sep 24LHPSweeper81.2100.736.776Out
Sep 23LHPSinker88.0100.6-8.281Out
Sep 23LHPFastball89.1104.88.642Out
Sep 23LHPSlider87.097.034.375Out
Sep 22LHPFastball94.2101.418.494Double
Sep 22LHPFastball92.386.213.823Double
Sep 22LHPFastball92.990.438.028Out
Sep 20LHPSlider85.892.427.140Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25425120
Sep 24411001
Sep 23500002
Sep 22524011
Sep 20411001
Sep 19536110
Sep 18422000
Sep 17411001
Sep 16400000
Sep 15614112

Two strikes

DJ Herz WSH · LHPwith two strikes
DJ Herz with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball48%50%40.0%37.5%18.4%
Changeup32%44%0.0%14.3%18.3%
Slider18%6%0.0%0.0%22.2%
Carson Benge bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Carson Benge with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.1%44.3%
Whiff%22.6%23.6%
Contact%77.4%76.4%
Chase%40.5%38.0%
wOBA.218.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.8%18.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.353
K%22.1%
BB%8.5%
Whiff%9.5%
Barrel%4.6%
Hard-hit%24.7%
Avg EV87.8

Against left-handers, last 90 days

108 PA
wOBA.326
xwOBA vs this mix.335against pitches like his
RV/1000.43
Hard-hit%23.6%
K%26.7%
BB%8.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
DJ HerzLHP · WSH vs NYM
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 16.3 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 55.7%56%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 12.6%13%56 strikeouts: 7.3%7%67 strikeouts: 3.5%3%78 strikeouts: 1.5%2%89+ strikeouts: 0.9%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 44% (red bars) · under: 56%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.1%
BB%10.5%
Whiff%9.5%
Velo88.4
BTB Stuff96
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball48%10393.013.3%
Changeup32%9682.810.0%
Slider18%7987.50.0%
Curveball3%9380.30.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

DJ Herz WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Carson Benge: every projection we've made →