Mets at Nationals
12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · 62F · Crosswind 8 mph · 65% precip risk
The game
Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.
- Carry
- – vs neutral air
- Weather
- 62°F · Crosswind · roof open
- Park factor
- Runs 104 · HR 103 100 = average
Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | 99 | 35% | 16% | 27% | .260 |
| Sep 15 | 67 | 32% | 9% | 32% | .305 |
| Sep 8 | 61 | 20% | 10% | 35% | .260 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Pitch-mix battles
each lineup against the starter it faces| DJ Herz's pitches | NYM lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Fastball | 48% | 93.0 | 103 | 13.3% | 1.15 | .315 | 9.5% | 31.3% | -0.67 |
| Changeup | 32% | 82.8 | 96 | 10.0% | -5.00 | .265 | 15.8% | 22.2% | +0.45 |
| Slider | 18% | 87.5 | 79 | 0.0% | -4.20 | .271 | 13.3% | 25.5% | +0.26 |
| Curveball | 3% | 80.3 | 93 | 0.0% | -30.40 | .305 | 11.1% | 29.1% | +0.97 |
| Sean Manaea's pitches | WSH lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Fastball | 41% | 91.9 | 90 | 13.0% | 0.06 | .380 | 10.0% | 27.1% | +1.44 |
| Sweeper | 29% | 76.5 | 84 | 12.3% | -1.89 | .303 | 14.6% | 26.0% | +0.38 |
| Sinker | 18% | 90.6 | 91 | 2.0% | -0.11 | .372 | 5.7% | 31.4% | +0.71 |
| Cutter | 8% | 84.9 | 82 | 11.5% | -0.17 | .312 | 11.4% | 25.2% | -0.02 |
| Changeup | 4% | 84.8 | 67 | 3.3% | -4.30 | .291 | 19.3% | 19.5% | +0.05 |
Bullpens
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
Two strikes
how each starter finishes hitters| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 41% | 48% | 26.9% | 23.8% | 18.4% |
| Sweeper | 29% | 33% | 25.9% | 19.5% | 21.2% |
| Sinker | 18% | 8% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 17.8% |
| Changeup | 4% | 7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 18.3% |
| Cutter | 8% | 5% | 33.3% | 26.3% | 18.3% |
| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 48% | 50% | 40.0% | 37.5% | 18.4% |
| Changeup | 32% | 44% | 0.0% | 14.3% | 18.3% |
| Slider | 18% | 6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 22.2% |
Mets lineup
Projected · facing DJ Herz LHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Lindor SS · bats S | 64.1% | 42.1% | 16.4% | 4.0 | +1.5 | .313 | A | Power | Normal |
| 2 | Juan Soto LF · bats L | 61.5% | 40.9% | 18.3% | 3.9 | -0.3 | .312 | A | Power | Hot |
| 3 | Bo Bichette 3B · bats R | 69.6% | 42.2% | 11.0% | 3.8 | +1.3 | .364 | B | Contact | Hot |
| 4 | Mark Vientos DH · bats R | 59.3% | 38.2% | 15.8% | 3.8 | +1.6 | .323 | B | Balanced | Normal |
| 5 | Carson Benge RF · bats L | 63.8% | 34.7% | 10.4% | 3.7 | 0.0 | .326 | C | Balanced | Hot |
| 6 | Francisco Alvarez C · bats R | 56.1% | 36.2% | 17.1% | 3.6 | +2.2 | .287 | B | Balanced | Hot |
| 7 | Marcus Semien 2B · bats R | 58.5% | 32.8% | 10.0% | 3.5 | +1.0 | .296 | Avg | Contact | Normal |
| 8 | A.J. Ewing CF · bats L | 56.3% | 30.5% | 8.8% | 3.4 | +0.9 | .322 | Avg | Balanced | Cold |
| 9 | Christopher Morel 1B · bats R | 48.8% | 29.9% | 12.4% | 3.3 | +0.7 | .270 | Avg | Balanced | Normal |
Nationals lineup
Projected · facing Sean Manaea LHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Wood DH · bats L | 63.6% | 40.7% | 16.9% | 4.0 | +1.4 | .360 | A | Power | Cold |
| 2 | Andrés Chaparro 1B · bats R | 62.5% | 42.3% | 20.4% | 3.9 | +2.6 | .404 | C | Power | Cold |
| 3 | Brady House 3B · bats R | 66.9% | 41.3% | 14.4% | 3.8 | +2.9 | .389 | B | Power | Normal |
| 4 | Dylan Crews RF · bats R | 61.8% | 37.4% | 14.9% | 3.8 | +1.9 | .320 | Avg | Balanced | Hot |
| 5 | CJ Abrams 2B · bats L | 59.1% | 35.9% | 13.8% | 3.7 | +0.7 | .300 | C | Balanced | Hot |
| 6 | Jacob Young CF · bats R | 60.3% | 32.4% | 7.9% | 3.6 | +1.7 | .401 | C | Contact | Hot |
| 7 | Daylen Lile LF · bats L | 62.3% | 39.3% | 14.2% | 3.5 | +0.1 | .305 | A | Power | Cold |
| 8 | Keibert Ruiz C · bats S | 64.5% | 36.7% | 8.2% | 3.4 | +1.7 | .322 | Avg | Balanced | Normal |
| 9 | Jorbit Vivas 2B · bats L | 50.4% | 23.8% | 3.9% | 3.3 | +1.0 | .289 | D | Contact | Cold |