MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 27, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · NYM · batting 9Christopher Morel
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.270wOBA vs LHP.256xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · WSHDJ Herz
Throws leftBTB Stuff 96Stable
3.4projected K21%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
DJ Herz's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 54% usage, 93.5 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +16.0″ rise. Christopher Morel: wOBA .332 vs league .354 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 54%Changeup: 25% usage, 83.5 mph, +15.6″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Christopher Morel: wOBA .309 vs league .329 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 25%Slider: 18% usage, 86.3 mph, -0.1″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Christopher Morel: wOBA .314 vs league .334 (pitcher's edge).Slider 18%Curveball: 3% usage, 81.2 mph, 0.0″ arm side, -2.0″ rise. Christopher Morel: wOBA .302 vs league .323 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 3%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Christopher Morel's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit48.8%48.2%+0.7
2+ total bases29.9%28.6%+1.3
Home run12.4%11.1%+1.3
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Christopher Morel against each of DJ Herz's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball54%93.5+13″ / +16″.332.35431.3%19.2%138About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup25%83.5+16″ / +6″.309.32935.8%26.5%70About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider18%86.3-0″ / +3″.314.33432.2%27.8%70About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball3%81.20″ / -2″.302.32338.2%32.7%47About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.261 / .198running 63 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

DJ Herz WSH · LHPwith two strikes
DJ Herz with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball48%50%40.0%37.5%18.4%
Changeup32%44%0.0%14.3%18.3%
Slider18%6%0.0%0.0%22.2%
Christopher Morel bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Christopher Morel with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%52.0%41.4%
Whiff%29.9%22.0%
Contact%70.1%78.0%
Chase%30.6%40.7%
wOBA.230.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes27.6%19.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.308
K%30.0%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%10.9%
Barrel%6.5%
Hard-hit%26.2%
Avg EV89.7

Against left-handers, last 90 days

19 PA
wOBA.270
xwOBA vs this mix.256against pitches like his
RV/100-1.09
Hard-hit%24.3%
K%23.5%
BB%7.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
DJ HerzLHP · WSH vs NYM
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 16.3 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 55.7%56%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 12.6%13%56 strikeouts: 7.3%7%67 strikeouts: 3.5%3%78 strikeouts: 1.5%2%89+ strikeouts: 0.9%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 44% (red bars) · under: 56%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.1%
BB%10.5%
Whiff%9.5%
Velo88.4
BTB Stuff96
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball48%10393.013.3%
Changeup32%9682.810.0%
Slider18%7987.50.0%
Curveball3%9380.30.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

DJ Herz WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Christopher Morel: every projection we've made →