MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 27, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · WSH · batting 7Daylen Lile
Bats leftTalent grade APowerCold
.305wOBA vs LHP.279xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · NYMSean Manaea
Throws leftBTB Stuff 87Trending Up
5.1projected K22%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Sean Manaea's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 30% usage, 92.3 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +10.8″ rise. Daylen Lile: wOBA .326 vs league .331 (about even).Sinker 30%Fastball: 28% usage, 91.8 mph, +13.2″ arm side, +11.5″ rise. Daylen Lile: wOBA .337 vs league .342 (about even).Fastball 28%Changeup: 16% usage, 85.0 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +5.9″ rise. Daylen Lile: wOBA .287 vs league .292 (about even).Changeup 16%Sweeper: 14% usage, 77.3 mph, -12.7″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Daylen Lile: wOBA .259 vs league .263 (about even).Sweeper 14%Slider: 9% usage, 83.4 mph, -3.6″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Daylen Lile: wOBA .280 vs league .284 (about even).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Daylen Lile's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Daylen Lile's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 97.5 mph at 46°Single: 102.7 mph at -11°Single: 106.2 mph at 10°Out: 100.1 mph at 37°Out: 91.7 mph at 40°Out: 82.6 mph at 22°Out: 98.9 mph at 30°Out: 83.9 mph at -15°Out: 92.8 mph at 54°Out: 70.9 mph at 52°Out: 72.3 mph at -12°Double: 83.2 mph at 18°Out: 102.8 mph at 21°Single: 103.7 mph at 12°Out: 69.0 mph at 50°Out: 94.0 mph at -1°Home run: 103.3 mph at 27°Out: 94.7 mph at 20°Out: 91.2 mph at 45°Out: 68.0 mph at -3°Out: 77.7 mph at 48°Out: 86.8 mph at 36°Out: 64.6 mph at 58°Single: 49.8 mph at -63°Out: 74.2 mph at 39°Single: 104.7 mph at 14°Home run: 101.3 mph at 27°Out: 78.9 mph at 40°Triple: 105.0 mph at 23°Single: 102.6 mph at 13°Out: 80.4 mph at -4°Out: 89.8 mph at -32°Out: 86.6 mph at 31°Out: 86.2 mph at 61°Out: 93.1 mph at 45°Out: 102.5 mph at 31°Out: 70.1 mph at -12°Out: 105.1 mph at -10°Out: 96.0 mph at 60°Out: 61.9 mph at 0°
38% hit 95+ mph35% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.3%62.3%+0.1
2+ total bases39.3%39.4%-0.1
Home run14.2%14.8%-0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.6
Home run
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Daylen Lile hits
Where they meet

.276 xwOBA for Daylen Lile in the spots Sean Manaea throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .305 (-30 points). His best spot against lefties is middle-left, and Sean Manaea puts 6% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Sean Manaea · where he throws to left-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing3%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 57% per swing3%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing5%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing6%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing7%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing7%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing7%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 16% per swing8%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing7%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing10%25% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 56% per swing25%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing8%
All · 370 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%6% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters8%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%9% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9%50% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters50%4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%
Sweeper · 126 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters1%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%13% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters13%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%1% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters1%11% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters11%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%19% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters19%
Sinker · 118 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%
Fastball · 105 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters11% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters11%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%11% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters11%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters28% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters28%6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%33% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters33%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters
Cutter · 18 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Daylen Lile · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .221 shrunk (raw .087 on 2 PA) · league .243 · 8 pitches seen.221xwOBA .297 shrunk (raw .300 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 11 pitches seen.297xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .538 on 1 PA) · league .254 · 8 pitches seen.276xwOBA .341 shrunk (raw .439 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 11 pitches seen.341xwOBA .389 shrunk (raw .394 on 10 PA) · league .385 · 22 pitches seen.389xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .368 on 6 PA) · league .340 · 13 pitches seen.349xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .268 on 3 PA) · league .273 · 19 pitches seen.272xwOBA .363 shrunk (raw .381 on 9 PA) · league .350 · 21 pitches seen.363xwOBA .279 shrunk (raw .219 on 4 PA) · league .299 · 8 pitches seen.279xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .106 on 4 PA) · league .302 · 23 pitches seen.253xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .205 on 4 PA) · league .346 · 28 pitches seen.311xwOBA .193 shrunk (raw .136 on 20 PA) · league .289 · 73 pitches seen.193xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .257 · 17 pitches seen.237
vs LHP · 262 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 21%38%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 23%25%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 6% of 17 swings · league 10%6%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 31% of 13 swings · league 17%31%Whiff 25% of 16 swings · league 14%25%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 67% of 6 swings · league 25%67%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 29%27%Whiff 51% of 35 swings · league 48%51%Whiff 39% of 13 swings · league 34%39%
vs LHP · 262 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 63% of 8 pitches · league 63%63%Swings at 73% of 11 pitches · league 71%73%Swings at 50% of 8 pitches · league 64%50%Swings at 55% of 11 pitches · league 67%55%Swings at 77% of 22 pitches · league 76%77%Swings at 85% of 13 pitches · league 72%85%Swings at 68% of 19 pitches · league 59%68%Swings at 76% of 21 pitches · league 68%76%Swings at 75% of 8 pitches · league 66%75%Swings at 26% of 23 pitches · league 30%26%Swings at 39% of 28 pitches · league 26%39%Swings at 48% of 73 pitches · league 31%48%Swings at 77% of 17 pitches · league 41%77%
vs LHP · 262 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Daylen Lile against each of Sean Manaea's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker30%92.3+16″ / +11″.326.33112.9%12.6%41About league average vs these
Fastball28%91.8+13″ / +12″.337.34213.0%12.7%45About league average vs these
Changeup16%85.0+13″ / +6″.287.29230.4%28.3%11About league average vs these
Sweeper14%77.3-13″ / +2″.259.26328.2%30.7%32About league average vs these
Slider9%83.4-4″ / +3″.280.28429.3%32.2%45About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Daylen Lile · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.500.429.667.436.45528.6%0.0%26.7%98.5103.70.0%80.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1218.250.222.312.219.33722.2%0.0%23.5%90.2103.77.1%42.9%50.0%
Last 30 G2030.308.300.462.352.32523.3%3.3%27.1%89.1103.74.8%42.9%57.1%
90 days4173.221.233.368.298.26230.1%1.4%28.5%90.1109.86.4%44.7%48.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 47 balls in play
Ground 30%Line drive 30%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.100.100.100.090.2720.0%0.0%16.7%86.6106.210.0%30.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1537.171.216.400.286.27821.6%5.4%23.6%87.2106.214.8%33.3%25.9%
Last 30 G3088.256.341.615.417.41817.0%11.4%17.3%90.3107.017.5%44.4%36.5%
90 days74222.252.306.505.352.37219.8%6.8%19.8%90.2107.914.8%43.2%40.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 162 balls in play
Ground 28%Line drive 22%Fly ball 41%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.250.235.312.232.34711.8%0.0%21.2%90.6106.26.7%46.7%40.0%
Last 15 G1555.196.218.373.264.29721.8%3.6%23.6%88.3106.212.2%36.6%34.1%
Last 30 G30118.269.331.577.400.39418.6%9.3%19.7%90.0107.014.3%44.0%41.7%
90 days76295.245.288.471.339.34522.4%5.4%21.9%90.2109.812.9%43.5%42.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 209 balls in play
Ground 29%Line drive 24%Fly ball 39%Pop-up 9%
Daylen Lile · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating86Excellent
Last 100 pitches85steady
wOBA / xwOBA.339 / .359running 21 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter81.997.546.041Out
Sep 25LHPSinker96.8102.7-11.270Single
Sep 25RHPChangeup85.6106.210.867Single
Sep 25LHPSweeper82.7100.137.390Sac fly
Sep 23RHPSlider82.791.740.019Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup87.382.622.553Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup88.298.930.828Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup88.883.9-15.088Out
Sep 21RHPFastball95.492.854.003Out
Sep 21RHPChangeup86.670.952.144Out
Sep 21RHPChangeup90.972.3-12.046Out
Sep 20LHPCurveball75.683.218.903Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25422000
Sep 23100000
Sep 22400001
Sep 21400001
Sep 20423000
Sep 19614103
Sep 18500010
Sep 16422000
Sep 15114100
Sep 13424001

Two strikes

Sean Manaea NYM · LHPwith two strikes
Sean Manaea with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball41%48%26.9%23.8%18.4%
Sweeper29%33%25.9%19.5%21.2%
Sinker18%8%8.7%9.7%17.8%
Changeup4%7%6.7%7.7%18.3%
Cutter8%5%33.3%26.3%18.3%
Daylen Lile bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Daylen Lile with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.8%44.3%
Whiff%23.7%23.6%
Contact%76.3%76.4%
Chase%45.8%38.0%
wOBA.227.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.0%18.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.352
K%21.8%
BB%5.7%
Whiff%12.1%
Barrel%8.1%
Hard-hit%31.0%
Avg EV89.9

Against left-handers, last 90 days

73 PA
wOBA.305
xwOBA vs this mix.279against pitches like his
RV/100-0.74
Hard-hit%28.6%
K%28.2%
BB%5.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Sean ManaeaLHP · NYM vs WSH
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.0 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.4%25%≤34 strikeouts: 17.2%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.8%15%67 strikeouts: 10.7%11%78 strikeouts: 6.9%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.6%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 40% (red bars) · under: 60%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.8%
BB%6.2%
Whiff%10.3%
Velo86.3
BTB Stuff87
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball41%9091.913.0%
Sweeper29%8476.512.3%
Sinker18%9190.62.0%
Cutter8%8284.911.5%
Changeup4%6784.83.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 229935%16%27%.260
Sep 156732%9%32%.305
Sep 86120%10%35%.260

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Sean Manaea NYM · LHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Daylen Lile: every projection we've made →