MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 27, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · WSH · batting 4Dylan Crews
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedHot
.320wOBA vs LHP.336xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · NYMSean Manaea
Throws leftBTB Stuff 87Trending Up
5.1projected K22%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Sean Manaea's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 30% usage, 92.3 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +10.8″ rise. Dylan Crews: wOBA .356 vs league .361 (about even).Sinker 30%Fastball: 28% usage, 91.8 mph, +13.2″ arm side, +11.5″ rise. Dylan Crews: wOBA .359 vs league .364 (about even).Fastball 28%Changeup: 16% usage, 85.0 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +5.9″ rise. Dylan Crews: wOBA .303 vs league .308 (about even).Changeup 16%Sweeper: 14% usage, 77.3 mph, -12.7″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Dylan Crews: wOBA .319 vs league .324 (about even).Sweeper 14%Slider: 9% usage, 83.4 mph, -3.6″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Dylan Crews: wOBA .329 vs league .334 (about even).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Dylan Crews's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Dylan Crews's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Home run: 104.9 mph at 32°Out: 57.2 mph at 3°Out: 93.5 mph at 30°Out: 101.8 mph at -34°Out: 105.4 mph at -7°Out: 81.2 mph at 68°Out: 88.0 mph at 61°Single: 93.3 mph at -6°Out: 109.3 mph at 14°Single: 81.3 mph at 16°Single: 76.9 mph at 16°Out: 53.7 mph at -15°Out: 83.9 mph at 3°Out: 90.7 mph at 53°Out: 101.4 mph at 37°Out: 102.5 mph at 22°Out: 81.7 mph at 14°Out: 106.0 mph at 16°Out: 98.9 mph at -12°Single: 59.6 mph at 28°Out: 80.7 mph at 13°Home run: 100.3 mph at 33°Out: 101.4 mph at -15°Out: 63.7 mph at 40°Single: 88.6 mph at 13°Out: 97.3 mph at 38°Single: 61.0 mph at -17°Out: 100.0 mph at 53°Out: 73.7 mph at -16°Out: 105.3 mph at 31°Single: 74.5 mph at 19°Out: 80.6 mph at -5°Out: 106.1 mph at -6°Out: 100.9 mph at 30°Out: 89.7 mph at 34°Out: 79.6 mph at -39°Out: 80.1 mph at 27°Single: 31.1 mph at -56°Out: 86.0 mph at 33°Single: 94.0 mph at 21°
38% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.8%59.9%+1.9
2+ total bases37.4%34.8%+2.5
Home run14.9%12.2%+2.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.6
Home run
Starter
+2.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Dylan Crews hits
Where they meet

.329 xwOBA for Dylan Crews in the spots Sean Manaea throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .310 (+19 points). His best spot against lefties is up-left, and Sean Manaea puts 3% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Sean Manaea · where he throws to right-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing3%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 34% per swing7%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing6%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing9%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing8%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 16% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing5%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing6%17% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 42% per swing17%15% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 32% per swing15%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing9%
All · 982 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%22% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters22%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%
Fastball · 442 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%4% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters4%14% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters14%27% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters27%13% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters13%
Sweeper · 271 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%16% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters16%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%13% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters13%20% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters20%
Sinker · 126 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%12% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters12%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%15% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters15%8% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters8%20% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters20%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%
Cutter · 86 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%11% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters11%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters14%11% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters11%37% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters37%
Changeup · 57 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Dylan Crews · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .451 on 6 PA) · league .243 · 10 pitches seen.312xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .223 on 11 PA) · league .296 · 21 pitches seen.261xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .515 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 13 pitches seen.291xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .096 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 20 pitches seen.237xwOBA .436 shrunk (raw .503 on 9 PA) · league .385 · 29 pitches seen.436xwOBA .358 shrunk (raw .412 on 4 PA) · league .340 · 13 pitches seen.358xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .248 on 7 PA) · league .273 · 14 pitches seen.264xwOBA .309 shrunk (raw .265 on 11 PA) · league .350 · 19 pitches seen.309xwOBA .342 shrunk (raw .417 on 7 PA) · league .299 · 15 pitches seen.342xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .357 on 7 PA) · league .302 · 31 pitches seen.322xwOBA .367 shrunk (raw .403 on 7 PA) · league .346 · 47 pitches seen.367xwOBA .342 shrunk (raw .413 on 9 PA) · league .289 · 81 pitches seen.342xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .317 on 8 PA) · league .257 · 40 pitches seen.281
vs LHP · 353 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 19%13%Whiff 41% of 17 swings · league 21%41%Whiff 44% of 9 swings · league 23%44%Whiff 7% of 15 swings · league 9%7%Whiff 10% of 20 swings · league 10%10%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 17%20%Whiff 0% of 15 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 16%11%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 25%13%Whiff 25% of 12 swings · league 29%25%Whiff 73% of 22 swings · league 48%73%Whiff 50% of 12 swings · league 34%50%
vs LHP · 353 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 80% of 10 pitches · league 63%80%Swings at 81% of 21 pitches · league 71%81%Swings at 69% of 13 pitches · league 64%69%Swings at 75% of 20 pitches · league 67%75%Swings at 69% of 29 pitches · league 76%69%Swings at 85% of 13 pitches · league 72%85%Swings at 71% of 14 pitches · league 59%71%Swings at 79% of 19 pitches · league 68%79%Swings at 60% of 15 pitches · league 66%60%Swings at 26% of 31 pitches · league 30%26%Swings at 26% of 47 pitches · league 26%26%Swings at 27% of 81 pitches · league 31%27%Swings at 30% of 40 pitches · league 41%30%
vs LHP · 353 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Dylan Crews against each of Sean Manaea's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker30%92.3+16″ / +11″.356.36116.1%16.2%49About league average vs these
Fastball28%91.8+13″ / +12″.359.36415.8%15.9%60About league average vs these
Changeup16%85.0+13″ / +6″.303.30829.8%29.1%19About league average vs these
Sweeper14%77.3-13″ / +2″.319.32426.7%25.0%9About league average vs these
Slider9%83.4-4″ / +3″.329.33429.9%28.2%23About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Dylan Crews · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.000.000.000.000.1700.0%0.0%0.0%86.0101.80.0%33.3%0.0%
Last 15 G1221.238.238.429.283.4254.8%0.0%9.1%83.6111.710.0%35.0%40.0%
Last 30 G2034.212.235.364.267.34017.6%2.9%18.6%84.7111.77.4%29.6%33.3%
90 days4595.224.305.424.322.34123.2%9.5%26.2%88.9112.311.1%34.9%39.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 63 balls in play
Ground 32%Line drive 21%Fly ball 35%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.333.429.583.436.50414.3%14.3%14.8%90.9109.320.0%40.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1439.286.333.486.373.38420.5%7.7%24.4%90.4109.310.7%46.4%42.9%
Last 30 G2991.280.341.451.354.32624.2%7.7%27.0%89.9109.36.6%44.3%36.1%
90 days67203.225.300.352.308.31525.6%8.4%29.2%89.6109.37.8%45.0%34.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 129 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 22%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.222.300.389.305.40410.0%10.0%11.1%89.1109.312.5%37.5%37.5%
Last 15 G1560.268.300.464.342.39915.0%5.0%20.0%87.6111.710.4%41.7%41.7%
Last 30 G30125.261.312.426.331.32922.4%6.4%25.0%88.3111.76.8%39.8%35.2%
90 days72298.225.302.375.312.32424.8%8.7%28.3%89.3112.38.9%41.7%36.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 192 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 21%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 11%
Dylan Crews · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating63Average
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.310 / .329running 19 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball87.7104.9321.566Home run
Sep 25LHPFastball97.257.23.129Force out
Sep 25RHPFastball89.393.530.189Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup90.3101.8-34.090Out
Sep 23RHPCutter87.6105.4-7.356Double play
Sep 23LHPCurveball77.381.268.007Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball83.888.061.008Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball79.293.3-6.202Single
Sep 22RHPFastball93.7109.314.834Out
Sep 22RHPSinker95.881.316.898Single
Sep 21RHPSinker95.876.916.765Single
Sep 21RHPSinker96.053.7-15.089Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25414110
Sep 23400000
Sep 22422001
Sep 21411011
Sep 20400000
Sep 19611001
Sep 18525101
Sep 16311001
Sep 15300000
Sep 13211001

Two strikes

Sean Manaea NYM · LHPwith two strikes
Sean Manaea with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball41%48%26.9%23.8%18.4%
Sweeper29%33%25.9%19.5%21.2%
Sinker18%8%8.7%9.7%17.8%
Changeup4%7%6.7%7.7%18.3%
Cutter8%5%33.3%26.3%18.3%
Dylan Crews bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Dylan Crews with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.5%41.4%
Whiff%21.8%22.0%
Contact%78.2%78.0%
Chase%34.5%40.7%
wOBA.233.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.5%18.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.305
K%24.6%
BB%8.4%
Whiff%13.7%
Barrel%5.6%
Hard-hit%26.5%
Avg EV89.2

Against left-handers, last 90 days

95 PA
wOBA.320
xwOBA vs this mix.336against pitches like his
RV/1000.41
Hard-hit%23.8%
K%23.3%
BB%8.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Sean ManaeaLHP · NYM vs WSH
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.0 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.4%25%≤34 strikeouts: 17.2%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.8%15%67 strikeouts: 10.7%11%78 strikeouts: 6.9%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.6%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 40% (red bars) · under: 60%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.8%
BB%6.2%
Whiff%10.3%
Velo86.3
BTB Stuff87
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball41%9091.913.0%
Sweeper29%8476.512.3%
Sinker18%9190.62.0%
Cutter8%8284.911.5%
Changeup4%6784.83.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 229935%16%27%.260
Sep 156732%9%32%.305
Sep 86120%10%35%.260

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Sean Manaea NYM · LHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Dylan Crews: every projection we've made →