MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 27, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · NYM · batting 1Francisco Lindor
Switch hitterTalent grade APowerNormal
.313wOBA vs LHP.322xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · WSHDJ Herz
Throws leftBTB Stuff 96Stable
3.4projected K21%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
DJ Herz's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 54% usage, 93.5 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +16.0″ rise. Francisco Lindor: wOBA .362 vs league .354 (about even).Fastball 54%Changeup: 25% usage, 83.5 mph, +15.6″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Francisco Lindor: wOBA .337 vs league .329 (about even).Changeup 25%Slider: 18% usage, 86.3 mph, -0.1″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Francisco Lindor: wOBA .342 vs league .334 (about even).Slider 18%Curveball: 3% usage, 81.2 mph, 0.0″ arm side, -2.0″ rise. Francisco Lindor: wOBA .331 vs league .323 (about even).Curveball 3%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Francisco Lindor's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Francisco Lindor's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 107.8 mph at 3°Out: 107.2 mph at 15°Out: 107.5 mph at -24°Out: 93.5 mph at 47°Double: 90.5 mph at 26°Out: 102.4 mph at 40°Single: 103.4 mph at -11°Out: 41.9 mph at -75°Out: 111.5 mph at 16°Out: 94.6 mph at 32°Out: 97.2 mph at 42°Out: 97.6 mph at -10°Out: 97.7 mph at 18°Single: 99.7 mph at 13°Out: 75.2 mph at 5°Out: 96.2 mph at 54°Out: 98.6 mph at 71°Out: 93.6 mph at -18°Out: 105.2 mph at 7°Out: 103.2 mph at 29°Out: 83.7 mph at -27°Out: 101.8 mph at 20°Single: 108.8 mph at 8°Double: 100.3 mph at 23°Out: 95.2 mph at -2°Out: 35.0 mph at -47°Out: 101.7 mph at 5°Single: 100.1 mph at 14°Out: 95.7 mph at 33°Out: 82.9 mph at 72°Out: 69.0 mph at -61°Out: 78.8 mph at 50°Double: 100.3 mph at 20°Out: 83.8 mph at 68°Out: 94.6 mph at 31°Out: 84.8 mph at 49°Out: 93.6 mph at 59°Single: 93.9 mph at 6°Out: 86.9 mph at 38°Home run: 104.3 mph at 41°
57% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.1%62.7%+1.5
2+ total bases42.1%40.8%+1.4
Home run16.4%15.8%+0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Francisco Lindor hits
Francisco Lindor · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .215 shrunk (raw .133 on 4 PA) · league .243 · 8 pitches seen.215xwOBA .369 shrunk (raw .442 on 12 PA) · league .296 · 34 pitches seen.369xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw .399 on 6 PA) · league .254 · 21 pitches seen.302xwOBA .315 shrunk (raw .341 on 3 PA) · league .308 · 20 pitches seen.315xwOBA .473 shrunk (raw .684 on 5 PA) · league .385 · 23 pitches seen.473xwOBA .365 shrunk (raw .390 on 12 PA) · league .340 · 28 pitches seen.365xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .187 on 6 PA) · league .273 · 26 pitches seen.244xwOBA .356 shrunk (raw .366 on 7 PA) · league .350 · 21 pitches seen.356xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .261 on 6 PA) · league .299 · 18 pitches seen.286xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .353 on 8 PA) · league .302 · 42 pitches seen.322xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .304 on 12 PA) · league .346 · 79 pitches seen.325xwOBA .319 shrunk (raw .360 on 9 PA) · league .289 · 84 pitches seen.319xwOBA .203 shrunk (raw .174 on 22 PA) · league .257 · 78 pitches seen.203
vs LHP · 482 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 0% of 24 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 14% of 14 swings · league 23%14%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 7% of 14 swings · league 10%7%Whiff 15% of 20 swings · league 11%15%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 17%18%Whiff 0% of 13 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 16%15%Whiff 7% of 14 swings · league 25%7%Whiff 35% of 20 swings · league 29%35%Whiff 58% of 26 swings · league 48%58%Whiff 28% of 29 swings · league 34%28%
vs LHP · 482 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 88% of 8 pitches · league 63%88%Swings at 71% of 34 pitches · league 71%71%Swings at 67% of 21 pitches · league 64%67%Swings at 55% of 20 pitches · league 67%55%Swings at 61% of 23 pitches · league 76%61%Swings at 71% of 28 pitches · league 72%71%Swings at 42% of 26 pitches · league 59%42%Swings at 62% of 21 pitches · league 68%62%Swings at 72% of 18 pitches · league 66%72%Swings at 33% of 42 pitches · league 30%33%Swings at 25% of 79 pitches · league 26%25%Swings at 31% of 84 pitches · league 31%31%Swings at 37% of 78 pitches · league 41%37%
vs LHP · 482 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Francisco Lindor against each of DJ Herz's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball54%93.5+13″ / +16″.362.35413.1%19.2%304About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup25%83.5+16″ / +6″.337.32918.8%26.5%146About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider18%86.3-0″ / +3″.342.33427.3%27.8%149About league average vs these
Curveball3%81.20″ / -2″.331.32332.3%32.7%115About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Francisco Lindor · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.133.188.133.156.23518.8%6.2%20.0%94.1111.58.3%66.7%16.7%
Last 15 G1227.200.259.240.231.29814.8%7.4%15.7%94.1111.54.8%61.9%28.6%
Last 30 G2451.174.255.283.263.30719.6%9.8%22.7%92.1111.55.6%52.8%25.0%
90 days49112.198.277.396.310.32317.0%9.8%19.0%91.1111.57.3%48.8%26.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 82 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 17%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.250.250.375.269.26625.0%0.0%47.1%97.9107.20.0%66.7%66.7%
Last 15 G1446.195.283.463.320.28628.3%8.7%32.6%92.8107.27.1%57.1%35.7%
Last 30 G2890.229.289.518.342.29726.7%5.6%28.7%91.1107.710.2%54.2%28.8%
90 days70229.240.323.466.344.32924.0%9.2%26.0%91.5107.710.1%52.7%32.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 148 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 24%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.174.208.217.194.24520.8%4.2%29.8%95.3111.55.6%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1573.197.274.379.287.29123.3%8.2%26.3%93.4111.56.1%59.2%32.7%
Last 30 G30141.209.277.434.313.30124.1%7.1%26.5%91.5111.58.4%53.7%27.4%
90 days75341.226.308.443.333.32721.7%9.4%23.7%91.4111.59.1%51.3%30.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 230 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 21%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 14%
Francisco Lindor · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating70Above average
Last 100 pitches18trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.334 / .337results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPFastball90.9107.83.479Single
Sep 25RHPSinker99.4107.215.688Out
Sep 25LHPFastball91.2107.5-24.103Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper86.393.547.014Out
Sep 24RHPSinker94.090.526.114Double
Sep 24LHPFastball93.8102.440.334Out
Sep 23LHPFastball89.6103.4-11.249Single
Sep 23LHPChangeup80.541.9-75.176Out
Sep 23LHPFastball89.8111.516.842Out
Sep 23LHPFastball94.794.632.230Out
Sep 23LHPCutter87.797.242.056Out
Sep 22LHPFastball94.697.6-10.211Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25511002
Sep 24412001
Sep 23511000
Sep 22511010
Sep 20500002
Sep 19500011
Sep 18523002
Sep 17400010
Sep 16411002
Sep 15612010

Two strikes

DJ Herz WSH · LHPwith two strikes
DJ Herz with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball48%50%40.0%37.5%18.4%
Changeup32%44%0.0%14.3%18.3%
Slider18%6%0.0%0.0%22.2%
Francisco Lindor bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Francisco Lindor with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%31.9%41.4%
Whiff%17.5%22.0%
Contact%82.5%78.0%
Chase%43.6%40.7%
wOBA.282.248
Whiff vs his put-away shapes15.3%19.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.338
K%21.4%
BB%9.3%
Whiff%10.9%
Barrel%6.1%
Hard-hit%33.9%
Avg EV91.1

Against left-handers, last 90 days

112 PA
wOBA.313
xwOBA vs this mix.322against pitches like his
RV/100-0.03
Hard-hit%34.6%
K%18.1%
BB%9.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
DJ HerzLHP · WSH vs NYM
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 16.3 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 55.7%56%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 12.6%13%56 strikeouts: 7.3%7%67 strikeouts: 3.5%3%78 strikeouts: 1.5%2%89+ strikeouts: 0.9%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 44% (red bars) · under: 56%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.1%
BB%10.5%
Whiff%9.5%
Velo88.4
BTB Stuff96
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball48%10393.013.3%
Changeup32%9682.810.0%
Slider18%7987.50.0%
Curveball3%9380.30.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

DJ Herz WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Francisco Lindor: every projection we've made →