MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 27, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · WSH · batting 1James Wood
Bats leftTalent grade APowerCold
.360wOBA vs LHP.323xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · NYMSean Manaea
Throws leftBTB Stuff 87Trending Up
5.1projected K22%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Sean Manaea's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 30% usage, 92.3 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +10.8″ rise. James Wood: wOBA .353 vs league .331 (hitter's edge).Sinker 30%Fastball: 28% usage, 91.8 mph, +13.2″ arm side, +11.5″ rise. James Wood: wOBA .364 vs league .342 (hitter's edge).Fastball 28%Changeup: 16% usage, 85.0 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +5.9″ rise. James Wood: wOBA .313 vs league .292 (hitter's edge).Changeup 16%Sweeper: 14% usage, 77.3 mph, -12.7″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. James Wood: wOBA .285 vs league .263 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 14%Slider: 9% usage, 83.4 mph, -3.6″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. James Wood: wOBA .306 vs league .284 (hitter's edge).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is James Wood's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

James Wood's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 110.0 mph at 6°Out: 87.4 mph at -38°Single: 112.9 mph at -5°Out: 87.8 mph at -14°Out: 96.9 mph at -12°Single: 103.5 mph at 6°Out: 82.9 mph at -18°Single: 111.0 mph at -6°Out: 103.9 mph at 17°Out: 105.9 mph at -4°Out: 99.6 mph at 43°Single: 110.6 mph at 10°Single: 83.4 mph at 9°Out: 89.5 mph at -25°Double: 87.9 mph at 12°Out: 78.8 mph at 6°Out: 98.7 mph at 41°Out: 106.7 mph at -25°Out: 108.4 mph at -10°Out: 102.2 mph at 8°Out: 107.0 mph at 16°Single: 79.9 mph at 14°Single: 97.3 mph at 4°Out: 69.9 mph at 3°Single: 48.7 mph at -48°Single: 104.8 mph at -4°Out: 104.5 mph at -19°Out: 76.4 mph at -12°Single: 105.6 mph at -10°Out: 67.6 mph at -26°Out: 113.0 mph at -3°Double: 114.3 mph at 20°Out: 107.2 mph at -23°Out: 112.8 mph at 1°Out: 100.9 mph at -6°Out: 85.2 mph at -33°Single: 109.3 mph at -4°Single: 109.4 mph at 0°Out: 62.5 mph at -32°Out: 104.7 mph at 40°
65% hit 95+ mph20% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.6%62.2%+1.4
2+ total bases40.7%39.8%+0.9
Home run16.9%17.0%-0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.6
Home run
Starter
-0.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where James Wood hits
Where they meet

.278 xwOBA for James Wood in the spots Sean Manaea throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .305 (-27 points). His best spot against lefties is middle-right, and Sean Manaea puts 7% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Sean Manaea · where he throws to left-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing3%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 57% per swing3%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing5%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing6%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing7%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing7%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing7%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 16% per swing8%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing7%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing10%25% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 56% per swing25%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing8%
All · 370 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%6% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters8%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%9% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9%50% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters50%4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%
Sweeper · 126 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters1%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%13% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters13%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%1% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters1%11% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters11%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%19% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters19%
Sinker · 118 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%
Fastball · 105 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters11% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters11%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%11% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters11%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters28% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters28%6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%33% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters33%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters
Cutter · 18 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

James Wood · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .224 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .243 · 10 pitches seen.224xwOBA .359 shrunk (raw .510 on 5 PA) · league .296 · 18 pitches seen.359xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .380 on 1 PA) · league .254 · 10 pitches seen.264xwOBA .327 shrunk (raw .373 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 17 pitches seen.327xwOBA .444 shrunk (raw .515 on 10 PA) · league .385 · 22 pitches seen.444xwOBA .425 shrunk (raw .517 on 11 PA) · league .340 · 17 pitches seen.425xwOBA .249 shrunk (raw .200 on 6 PA) · league .273 · 29 pitches seen.249xwOBA .334 shrunk (raw .303 on 6 PA) · league .350 · 17 pitches seen.334xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .232 on 7 PA) · league .299 · 16 pitches seen.274xwOBA .226 shrunk (raw .000 on 4 PA) · league .302 · 27 pitches seen.226xwOBA .361 shrunk (raw .373 on 14 PA) · league .346 · 35 pitches seen.361xwOBA .151 shrunk (raw .000 on 11 PA) · league .289 · 86 pitches seen.151xwOBA .302 shrunk (raw .570 on 2 PA) · league .257 · 20 pitches seen.302
vs LHP · 324 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 19%33%Whiff 33% of 12 swings · league 21%33%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 23%33%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 9%22%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 10%6%Whiff 7% of 15 swings · league 11%7%Whiff 14% of 14 swings · league 17%14%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 14%18%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 16%27%Whiff 100% of 2 swings · league 25%100%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 29%27%Whiff 94% of 18 swings · league 48%94%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 34%0%
vs LHP · 324 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 60% of 10 pitches · league 63%60%Swings at 67% of 18 pitches · league 71%67%Swings at 60% of 10 pitches · league 64%60%Swings at 53% of 17 pitches · league 67%53%Swings at 82% of 22 pitches · league 76%82%Swings at 88% of 17 pitches · league 72%88%Swings at 48% of 29 pitches · league 59%48%Swings at 65% of 17 pitches · league 68%65%Swings at 69% of 16 pitches · league 66%69%Swings at 7% of 27 pitches · league 30%7%Swings at 31% of 35 pitches · league 26%31%Swings at 21% of 86 pitches · league 31%21%Swings at 30% of 20 pitches · league 41%30%
vs LHP · 324 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

James Wood against each of Sean Manaea's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker30%92.3+16″ / +11″.353.33114.4%12.6%105About league average vs these
Fastball28%91.8+13″ / +12″.364.34214.6%12.7%124About league average vs these
Changeup16%85.0+13″ / +6″.313.29238.2%28.3%33About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper14%77.3-13″ / +2″.285.26336.8%30.7%65About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider9%83.4-4″ / +3″.306.28438.2%32.2%85About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
James Wood · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.182.250.182.208.21041.7%8.3%28.6%101.5112.90.0%66.7%16.7%
Last 15 G1326.208.269.250.240.25530.8%7.7%27.0%97.4112.90.0%62.5%18.8%
Last 30 G2452.245.288.367.289.27030.8%5.8%27.5%94.8112.96.1%51.5%21.2%
90 days3583.289.349.500.367.32131.3%8.4%29.5%94.5113.610.0%52.0%26.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 50 balls in play
Ground 70%Line drive 16%Fly ball 10%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.250.333.250.278.24544.4%11.1%33.3%98.3110.00.0%75.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1435.267.371.300.316.33031.4%14.3%19.6%95.7114.35.3%68.4%26.3%
Last 30 G2879.246.405.328.345.37824.1%21.5%20.9%96.2114.34.7%60.5%25.6%
90 days47141.271.433.514.412.43821.3%22.7%19.4%95.9115.111.4%60.8%34.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 79 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 23%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 5%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.211.286.211.238.22542.9%9.5%30.8%100.2112.90.0%70.0%10.0%
Last 15 G1561.241.328.278.284.29831.1%11.5%22.6%96.5114.32.9%65.7%22.9%
Last 30 G30131.245.359.345.323.33426.7%15.3%23.7%95.6114.35.3%56.6%23.7%
90 days49224.279.402.508.395.39425.0%17.4%23.5%95.4115.110.9%57.4%31.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 129 balls in play
Ground 62%Line drive 20%Fly ball 13%Pop-up 5%
James Wood · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating97Top tier
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.394 / .396results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball91.3110.06.684Single
Sep 25LHPFastball91.987.4-38.041Out
Sep 25LHPSinker99.0112.9-5.357Single
Sep 23LHPSinker93.887.8-14.123Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup84.096.9-12.165Out
Sep 22RHPFastball94.4103.56.603Single
Sep 22RHPChangeup87.782.9-18.056Out
Sep 21LHPFastball95.3111.0-6.363Single
Sep 20LHPSinker92.2103.917.563Out
Sep 20LHPSinker93.5105.9-4.369Out
Sep 19RHPCurveball81.399.643.103Out
Sep 19RHPSweeper84.0110.610.906Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25522020
Sep 23400002
Sep 22411002
Sep 21411003
Sep 20400002
Sep 19522001
Sep 18412010
Sep 16400000
Sep 15100001
Sep 13522011

Two strikes

Sean Manaea NYM · LHPwith two strikes
Sean Manaea with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball41%48%26.9%23.8%18.4%
Sweeper29%33%25.9%19.5%21.2%
Sinker18%8%8.7%9.7%17.8%
Changeup4%7%6.7%7.7%18.3%
Cutter8%5%33.3%26.3%18.3%
James Wood bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
James Wood with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%49.8%44.3%
Whiff%31.5%23.6%
Contact%68.5%76.4%
Chase%36.4%38.0%
wOBA.221.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes25.4%18.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.379
K%25.7%
BB%15.3%
Whiff%9.0%
Barrel%7.0%
Hard-hit%32.2%
Avg EV94.8

Against left-handers, last 90 days

82 PA
wOBA.360
xwOBA vs this mix.323against pitches like his
RV/1000.62
Hard-hit%30.3%
K%30.1%
BB%16.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Sean ManaeaLHP · NYM vs WSH
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.0 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.4%25%≤34 strikeouts: 17.2%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.8%15%67 strikeouts: 10.7%11%78 strikeouts: 6.9%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.6%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 40% (red bars) · under: 60%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.8%
BB%6.2%
Whiff%10.3%
Velo86.3
BTB Stuff87
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball41%9091.913.0%
Sweeper29%8476.512.3%
Sinker18%9190.62.0%
Cutter8%8284.911.5%
Changeup4%6784.83.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 229935%16%27%.260
Sep 156732%9%32%.305
Sep 86120%10%35%.260

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Sean Manaea NYM · LHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.James Wood: every projection we've made →