MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 27, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · WSH · batting 9Jorbit Vivas
Bats leftTalent grade DContactCold
.289wOBA vs LHP.285xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · NYMSean Manaea
Throws leftBTB Stuff 87Trending Up
5.1projected K22%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Sean Manaea's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Sinker: 30% usage, 92.3 mph, +15.7″ arm side, +10.8″ rise. Jorbit Vivas: wOBA .332 vs league .331 (about even).Sinker 30%Fastball: 28% usage, 91.8 mph, +13.2″ arm side, +11.5″ rise. Jorbit Vivas: wOBA .343 vs league .342 (about even).Fastball 28%Changeup: 16% usage, 85.0 mph, +13.3″ arm side, +5.9″ rise. Jorbit Vivas: wOBA .293 vs league .292 (about even).Changeup 16%Sweeper: 14% usage, 77.3 mph, -12.7″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Jorbit Vivas: wOBA .265 vs league .263 (about even).Sweeper 14%Slider: 9% usage, 83.4 mph, -3.6″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Jorbit Vivas: wOBA .285 vs league .284 (about even).Slider 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jorbit Vivas's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jorbit Vivas's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 53.3 mph at -34°Out: 100.6 mph at 14°Out: 87.7 mph at -25°Out: 75.0 mph at 35°Out: 91.2 mph at 30°Out: 71.1 mph at 67°Out: 99.8 mph at 15°Out: 85.1 mph at 49°Out: 90.7 mph at -8°Out: 90.9 mph at 48°Single: 84.8 mph at 18°Out: 81.3 mph at 41°Single: 92.0 mph at 17°Single: 78.8 mph at 16°Single: 102.0 mph at -7°Out: 74.7 mph at -19°Out: 93.3 mph at -43°Out: 95.7 mph at -19°Out: 92.8 mph at 21°Out: 82.8 mph at -34°Single: 63.0 mph at 23°Single: 78.0 mph at 11°Double: 87.3 mph at 29°Out: 73.4 mph at -35°Double: 84.2 mph at 28°Out: 91.8 mph at 28°Double: 105.5 mph at 15°Out: 104.7 mph at -8°Single: 91.6 mph at 13°Out: 84.5 mph at 45°Out: 100.2 mph at -24°Out: 52.1 mph at -15°Out: 62.8 mph at -12°Out: 74.6 mph at 2°Double: 80.6 mph at 9°Out: 73.7 mph at 5°Out: 81.5 mph at 78°Out: 85.1 mph at 22°Double: 100.8 mph at 24°Single: 101.2 mph at 15°
23% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit50.4%49.4%+1.0
2+ total bases23.8%23.5%+0.4
Home run3.9%4.5%-0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jorbit Vivas hits
Where they meet

.297 xwOBA for Jorbit Vivas in the spots Sean Manaea throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .305 (-8 points). His best spot against lefties is up and left, outside, and Sean Manaea puts 7% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Sean Manaea · where he throws to left-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing3%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 57% per swing3%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing5%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing6%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing7%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing7%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing7%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 16% per swing8%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing7%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing10%25% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 56% per swing25%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing8%
All · 370 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters1%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%6% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters8%2% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters2%9% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9%50% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters50%4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%
Sweeper · 126 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters1%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%13% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters13%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%1% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters1%11% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters11%10% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters10%19% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters19%
Sinker · 118 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%
Fastball · 105 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters11% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters11%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%11% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters11%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters28% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters28%6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%33% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters33%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters
Cutter · 18 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Jorbit Vivas · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .443 on 1 PA) · league .243 · 4 pitches seen.258xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .296 · 7 pitches seenxwOBA .231 shrunk (raw .096 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 4 pitches seen.231xwOBA .287 shrunk (raw .037 on 1 PA) · league .308 · 9 pitches seen.287xwOBA .361 shrunk (raw .068 on 1 PA) · league .385 · 6 pitches seen.361xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .144 on 7 PA) · league .340 · 8 pitches seen.268xwOBA .239 shrunk (raw .102 on 3 PA) · league .273 · 9 pitches seen.239xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .350 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .335 on 3 PA) · league .299 · 6 pitches seen.306xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .698 on 1 PA) · league .302 · 9 pitches seen.332xwOBA .373 shrunk (raw .698 on 1 PA) · league .346 · 7 pitches seen.373xwOBA .269 shrunk (raw .230 on 6 PA) · league .289 · 34 pitches seen.269xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .406 on 2 PA) · league .257 · 6 pitches seen.278
vs LHP · 111 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 21%25%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 23%50%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 9%29%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 10%17%Whiff 0% of 8 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 17%17%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 67% of 3 swings · league 25%67%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 29%0%Whiff 46% of 11 swings · league 48%46%Whiff 50% of 2 swings · league 34%50%
vs LHP · 111 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 63%75%Swings at 57% of 7 pitches · league 71%57%Swings at 50% of 4 pitches · league 64%50%Swings at 78% of 9 pitches · league 67%78%Swings at 100% of 6 pitches · league 76%100%Swings at 100% of 8 pitches · league 72%100%Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 59%67%Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 68%50%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 33% of 9 pitches · league 30%33%Swings at 29% of 7 pitches · league 26%29%Swings at 32% of 34 pitches · league 31%32%Swings at 33% of 6 pitches · league 41%33%
vs LHP · 111 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jorbit Vivas against each of Sean Manaea's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Sinker30%92.3+16″ / +11″.332.33111.2%12.6%14About league average vs these
Fastball28%91.8+13″ / +12″.343.34211.3%12.7%16About league average vs these
Changeup16%85.0+13″ / +6″.293.29227.0%28.3%3Little history vs this shape
Sweeper14%77.3-13″ / +2″.265.26327.0%30.7%3Little history vs this shape
Slider9%83.4-4″ / +3″.285.28428.1%32.2%10About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jorbit Vivas · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G25.200.200.200.180.23420.0%0.0%33.3%73.787.70.0%0.0%25.0%
Last 15 G715.231.333.308.357.22320.0%13.3%29.7%73.687.70.0%0.0%30.0%
Last 30 G1120.235.350.294.348.28415.0%15.0%24.0%75.495.70.0%7.1%28.6%
90 days1529.154.241.192.248.23717.2%10.3%23.7%76.6103.50.0%10.0%20.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 20 balls in play
Ground 75%Line drive 15%Fly ball 10%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.231.286.231.243.30914.3%7.1%8.7%90.0102.00.0%27.3%45.5%
Last 15 G1535.219.286.281.260.25225.7%8.6%22.4%89.9105.50.0%30.4%47.8%
Last 30 G3082.225.321.310.293.28815.9%12.2%16.7%85.5108.73.4%20.3%39.0%
90 days57162.222.335.289.295.29216.0%14.8%17.1%83.5108.71.8%18.0%37.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 111 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 24%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.222.263.222.226.29015.8%5.3%18.4%85.6102.00.0%20.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1550.222.300.289.289.24324.0%10.0%25.3%84.9105.50.0%21.2%42.4%
Last 30 G30102.227.327.307.303.28815.7%12.7%18.7%83.6108.72.7%17.8%37.0%
90 days58191.211.321.273.288.28416.2%14.1%18.3%82.4108.71.5%16.8%35.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 131 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 23%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 8%
Jorbit Vivas · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating26Below average
Last 100 pitches38trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.290 / .290results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSinker95.953.3-34.109Out
Sep 25RHPChangeup83.6100.614.811Out
Sep 25LHPSinker92.987.7-25.063Force out
Sep 25LHPFastball92.875.035.134Out
Sep 22RHPFastball93.191.230.061Out
Sep 22RHPFastball93.171.167.003Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball86.599.815.716Out
Sep 22RHPSlider88.285.149.008Out
Sep 21RHPSinker94.990.7-8.162Out
Sep 21RHPFastball91.790.948.000Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup86.284.818.855Single
Sep 19RHPFastball94.381.341.018Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400000
Sep 22400000
Sep 21400011
Sep 20100001
Sep 19644001
Sep 18400020
Sep 16300001
Sep 15411002
Sep 13111000
Sep 12412003

Two strikes

Sean Manaea NYM · LHPwith two strikes
Sean Manaea with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball41%48%26.9%23.8%18.4%
Sweeper29%33%25.9%19.5%21.2%
Sinker18%8%8.7%9.7%17.8%
Changeup4%7%6.7%7.7%18.3%
Cutter8%5%33.3%26.3%18.3%
Jorbit Vivas bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jorbit Vivas with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.2%44.3%
Whiff%19.7%23.6%
Contact%80.3%76.4%
Chase%36.7%38.0%
wOBA.235.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes15.7%18.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDContact type
wOBA.291
K%17.7%
BB%11.7%
Whiff%9.0%
Barrel%2.3%
Hard-hit%15.3%
Avg EV83.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

29 PA
wOBA.289
xwOBA vs this mix.285against pitches like his
RV/100-0.81
Hard-hit%18.0%
K%20.4%
BB%13.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Sean ManaeaLHP · NYM vs WSH
5.1projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 24.0 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 25.4%25%≤34 strikeouts: 17.2%17%45 strikeouts: 17.4%17%56 strikeouts: 14.8%15%67 strikeouts: 10.7%11%78 strikeouts: 6.9%7%89+ strikeouts: 7.6%8%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 40% (red bars) · under: 60%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.8%
BB%6.2%
Whiff%10.3%
Velo86.3
BTB Stuff87
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball41%9091.913.0%
Sweeper29%8476.512.3%
Sinker18%9190.62.0%
Cutter8%8284.911.5%
Changeup4%6784.83.3%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 229935%16%27%.260
Sep 156732%9%32%.305
Sep 86120%10%35%.260

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Sean Manaea NYM · LHPvsWSH lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jorbit Vivas: every projection we've made →