MLBengine v14
← NYM at WSH, Sep 27, 2026
12:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · lineup projected
Hitter · NYM · batting 2Juan Soto
Bats leftTalent grade APowerHot
.312wOBA vs LHP.314xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · WSHDJ Herz
Throws leftBTB Stuff 96Stable
3.4projected K21%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
DJ Herz's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 54% usage, 93.5 mph, +12.5″ arm side, +16.0″ rise. Juan Soto: wOBA .395 vs league .347 (hitter's edge).Fastball 54%Changeup: 25% usage, 83.5 mph, +15.6″ arm side, +6.2″ rise. Juan Soto: wOBA .374 vs league .326 (hitter's edge).Changeup 25%Slider: 18% usage, 86.3 mph, -0.1″ arm side, +3.1″ rise. Juan Soto: wOBA .334 vs league .286 (hitter's edge).Slider 18%Curveball: 3% usage, 81.2 mph, 0.0″ arm side, -2.0″ rise. Juan Soto: wOBA .329 vs league .281 (hitter's edge).Curveball 3%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Juan Soto's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Juan Soto's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 98.9 mph at 27°Single: 103.3 mph at 6°Single: 61.9 mph at -8°Out: 92.4 mph at 30°Out: 72.0 mph at 79°Out: 73.0 mph at 85°Out: 90.1 mph at -37°Home run: 106.2 mph at 35°Out: 78.9 mph at -11°Single: 105.2 mph at 4°Single: 78.9 mph at -3°Out: 94.5 mph at -14°Out: 100.5 mph at 24°Out: 92.4 mph at 33°Out: 107.4 mph at -9°Single: 107.8 mph at 7°Out: 96.6 mph at -14°Out: 70.2 mph at 54°Single: 86.8 mph at 19°Out: 76.3 mph at -15°Single: 85.2 mph at 10°Double: 108.9 mph at 16°Home run: 109.4 mph at 27°Out: 87.0 mph at 26°Out: 92.7 mph at 4°Out: 98.4 mph at -7°Out: 106.3 mph at -5°Out: 104.0 mph at 17°Out: 99.8 mph at 41°Out: 103.6 mph at 0°Single: 92.9 mph at 15°Out: 95.3 mph at -29°Out: 84.1 mph at -21°Single: 101.2 mph at 10°Single: 105.5 mph at 11°Out: 83.3 mph at 76°Out: 93.8 mph at 59°Out: 93.9 mph at 77°Double: 99.0 mph at 11°Out: 98.0 mph at -11°
50% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.5%61.8%-0.3
2+ total bases40.9%41.5%-0.6
Home run18.3%19.4%-1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
-1.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Juan Soto hits
Juan Soto · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .224 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .243 · 5 pitches seen.224xwOBA .354 shrunk (raw .471 on 6 PA) · league .296 · 12 pitches seen.354xwOBA .218 shrunk (raw .002 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 6 pitches seen.218xwOBA .330 shrunk (raw .373 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 14 pitches seen.330xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .166 on 7 PA) · league .385 · 14 pitches seen.304xwOBA .363 shrunk (raw .393 on 9 PA) · league .340 · 20 pitches seen.363xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .573 on 2 PA) · league .273 · 12 pitches seen.316xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .114 on 1 PA) · league .350 · 14 pitches seen.332xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .492 on 7 PA) · league .299 · 15 pitches seen.370xwOBA .257 shrunk (raw .078 on 3 PA) · league .302 · 17 pitches seen.257xwOBA .321 shrunk (raw .284 on 8 PA) · league .346 · 28 pitches seen.321xwOBA .341 shrunk (raw .404 on 10 PA) · league .289 · 69 pitches seen.341xwOBA .203 shrunk (raw .072 on 5 PA) · league .257 · 23 pitches seen.203
vs LHP · 249 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 67% of 3 swings · league 19%67%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 21%20%Whiff 60% of 5 swings · league 23%60%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 9%20%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 10%27%Whiff 6% of 17 swings · league 11%6%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 14%9%Whiff 0% of 13 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 25%20%Whiff 36% of 14 swings · league 29%36%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 48%27%Whiff 44% of 9 swings · league 34%44%
vs LHP · 249 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 63%60%Swings at 83% of 12 pitches · league 71%83%Swings at 83% of 6 pitches · league 64%83%Swings at 71% of 14 pitches · league 67%71%Swings at 79% of 14 pitches · league 76%79%Swings at 85% of 20 pitches · league 72%85%Swings at 33% of 12 pitches · league 59%33%Swings at 79% of 14 pitches · league 68%79%Swings at 87% of 15 pitches · league 66%87%Swings at 29% of 17 pitches · league 30%29%Swings at 50% of 28 pitches · league 26%50%Swings at 16% of 69 pitches · league 31%16%Swings at 39% of 23 pitches · league 41%39%
vs LHP · 249 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Juan Soto against each of DJ Herz's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball54%93.5+13″ / +16″.395.34715.0%15.4%341Hits these better than most
Changeup25%83.5+16″ / +6″.374.32616.3%19.1%156Hits these better than most
Slider18%86.3-0″ / +3″.334.28627.3%32.4%231Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Curveball3%81.20″ / -2″.329.28127.4%32.6%170Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Juan Soto · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.429.529.643.550.4980.0%17.6%9.1%92.9107.821.4%57.1%14.3%
Last 15 G1430.333.400.556.426.41616.7%10.0%19.6%94.0107.818.2%59.1%22.7%
Last 30 G2446.256.304.395.309.31121.7%6.5%21.2%91.3110.012.1%48.5%21.2%
90 days3470.242.329.339.318.33717.1%11.4%22.0%89.8110.08.0%40.0%28.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 50 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 20%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.000.333.000.220.26716.7%33.3%50.0%86.394.50.0%0.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1441.206.341.353.318.37217.1%17.1%20.6%91.9109.47.4%37.0%40.7%
Last 30 G2888.225.375.437.363.40512.5%19.3%21.2%92.9111.811.7%45.0%36.7%
90 days42130.245.423.531.417.45113.1%23.8%18.5%92.3111.815.9%47.6%36.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 82 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 18%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G523.333.478.500.463.4374.3%21.7%17.9%91.8107.817.6%47.1%17.6%
Last 15 G1571.262.366.443.362.39016.9%14.1%20.2%92.8109.412.2%46.9%32.7%
Last 30 G30134.237.351.421.345.37415.7%14.9%21.2%92.3111.811.8%46.2%31.2%
90 days45200.244.390.456.382.41114.5%19.5%19.8%91.4111.812.9%44.7%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 132 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 19%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 15%
Juan Soto · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating98Elite
Last 100 pitches100steady
wOBA / xwOBA.370 / .402running 32 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSlider83.998.927.860Out
Sep 25LHPSinker90.6103.36.603Single
Sep 25LHPCurveball84.961.9-8.062Single
Sep 25RHPSplitter88.592.430.076Out
Sep 24RHPSlider82.572.079.000Out
Sep 24LHPSlider84.773.085.003Out
Sep 24LHPSinker91.490.1-37.042Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup81.1106.2351.437Home run
Sep 23LHPSinker88.978.9-11.059Out
Sep 22LHPSlider86.8105.24.529Single
Sep 22LHPSlider87.878.9-3.099Single
Sep 22RHPChangeup88.894.5-14.161Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25522010
Sep 24400010
Sep 23514130
Sep 22522000
Sep 20411001
Sep 19511003
Sep 18537100
Sep 17400020
Sep 16400000
Sep 15622011

Two strikes

DJ Herz WSH · LHPwith two strikes
DJ Herz with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball48%50%40.0%37.5%18.4%
Changeup32%44%0.0%14.3%18.3%
Slider18%6%0.0%0.0%22.2%
Juan Soto bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Juan Soto with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%36.4%44.3%
Whiff%19.7%23.6%
Contact%80.3%76.4%
Chase%28.4%38.0%
wOBA.268.223
Whiff vs his put-away shapes15.8%18.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.388
K%16.0%
BB%17.7%
Whiff%8.4%
Barrel%9.2%
Hard-hit%30.6%
Avg EV91.6

Against left-handers, last 90 days

66 PA
wOBA.312
xwOBA vs this mix.314against pitches like his
RV/1000.01
Hard-hit%28.2%
K%19.0%
BB%17.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
DJ HerzLHP · WSH vs NYM
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 16.3 batters over 3.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 55.7%56%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 12.6%13%56 strikeouts: 7.3%7%67 strikeouts: 3.5%3%78 strikeouts: 1.5%2%89+ strikeouts: 0.9%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 44% (red bars) · under: 56%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%21.1%
BB%10.5%
Whiff%9.5%
Velo88.4
BTB Stuff96
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball48%10393.013.3%
Changeup32%9682.810.0%
Slider18%7987.50.0%
Curveball3%9380.30.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

DJ Herz WSH · LHPvsNYM lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameNYM @ WSH →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Juan Soto: every projection we've made →