MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · DET · batting 7Brett Callahan
Bats leftTalent grade AvgBalancedNormal
.287wOBA vs RHP.296xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · PITJared Jones
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
6.3projected K32%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jared Jones's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 48% usage, 97.8 mph, +8.8″ arm side, +16.6″ rise. Brett Callahan: wOBA .328 vs league .336 (about even).Fastball 48%Slider: 35% usage, 89.3 mph, -3.4″ arm side, +2.0″ rise. Brett Callahan: wOBA .315 vs league .323 (about even).Slider 35%Curveball: 9% usage, 83.6 mph, -6.0″ arm side, -10.2″ rise. Brett Callahan: wOBA .278 vs league .285 (about even).Curveball 9%Changeup: 9% usage, 91.8 mph, +12.1″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Brett Callahan: wOBA .312 vs league .320 (about even).Changeup 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brett Callahan's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit50.6%52.9%-2.3
2+ total bases28.2%29.5%-1.3
Home run10.2%10.3%-0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Brett Callahan hits
Jared Jones · where he throws to left-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing5%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing6%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing8%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 21% per swing5%19% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing19%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing5%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing10%20% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 61% per swing20%
All · 706 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%1% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters1%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%27% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters27%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%
Fastball · 359 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%12% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters12%33% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters33%
Slider · 210 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters20% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters20%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters34% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters34%21% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters21%
Changeup · 85 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%39% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters39%
Curveball · 52 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Pitch by pitch

Brett Callahan against each of Jared Jones's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball48%97.8+9″ / +17″.328.33623.5%20.6%23About league average vs these
Slider35%89.3-3″ / +2″.315.32329.4%29.5%7Little history vs this shape
Curveball9%83.6-6″ / -10″.278.28532.5%32.7%8About league average vs these
Changeup9%91.8+12″ / +5″.312.32028.5%24.3%10About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating43Below average
Last 100 pitches48steady
wOBA / xwOBA.289 / .310running 20 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Jared Jones PIT · RHPwith two strikes
Jared Jones with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball50%46%20.6%21.8%18.3%
Slider35%39%37.6%31.9%21.4%
Changeup8%8%35.7%17.2%18.4%
Curveball7%6%41.7%30.4%20.7%
Brett Callahan bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Brett Callahan with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%49.8%41.3%
Whiff%27.1%21.6%
Contact%72.9%78.4%
Chase%41.8%39.4%
wOBA.237.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes30.3%24.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.308
K%25.9%
BB%7.9%
Whiff%11.8%
Barrel%5.1%
Hard-hit%26.0%
Avg EV88.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

76 PA
wOBA.287
xwOBA vs this mix.296against pitches like his
RV/100-0.76
Hard-hit%26.2%
K%31.5%
BB%7.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jared JonesRHP · PIT vs DET
6.3projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 10 · 20.9 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 12.9%13%≤34 strikeouts: 12.1%12%45 strikeouts: 15.2%15%56 strikeouts: 15.8%16%67 strikeouts: 14.2%14%78 strikeouts: 11.2%11%89+ strikeouts: 18.6%19%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 44% (red bars) · under: 56%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%31.8%
BB%7.5%
Whiff%14.9%
Velo93.8
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball50%10698.19.9%
Slider35%11489.721.9%
Changeup8%9192.415.8%
Curveball7%9785.715.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228641%20%18%.057
Sep 169139%15%22%.320
Sep 109033%20%17%.110

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jared Jones PIT · RHPvsDET lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brett Callahan: every projection we've made →