The game
Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.
- Carry
- – vs neutral air
- Weather
- 61°F · Wind in · roof open
- Park factor
- Runs 100 · HR 101 100 = average
Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | 86 | 41% | 20% | 18% | .057 |
| Sep 16 | 91 | 39% | 15% | 22% | .320 |
| Sep 10 | 90 | 33% | 20% | 17% | .110 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Pitch-mix battles
each lineup against the starter it faces| River Ryan's pitches | PIT lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Fastball | 33% | 96.5 | 126 | 0.0% | 4.03 | .331 | 11.8% | 28.1% | -1.23 |
| Changeup | 19% | 89.8 | 93 | 37.5% | 7.25 | .257 | 15.7% | 20.9% | -2.19 |
| Curveball | 14% | 82.3 | 101 | 16.7% | 3.63 | .354 | 14.7% | 23.5% | -0.20 |
| Sinker | 12% | 94.2 | 96 | 20.0% | -17.78 | .366 | 6.5% | 30.2% | +2.44 |
| Slider | 12% | 89.6 | 107 | 20.0% | 6.80 | .302 | 15.2% | 20.3% | -0.99 |
| Cutter | 12% | 93.0 | 117 | 0.0% | 4.08 | .369 | 12.3% | 30.7% | -0.21 |
| Jared Jones's pitches | DET lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Fastball | 50% | 98.1 | 106 | 9.9% | 1.10 | .388 | 7.5% | 29.1% | +1.90 |
| Slider | 35% | 89.7 | 114 | 21.9% | 1.75 | .291 | 14.1% | 25.1% | -1.42 |
| Changeup | 8% | 92.4 | 91 | 15.8% | -1.22 | .243 | 17.6% | 16.8% | -0.37 |
| Curveball | 7% | 85.7 | 97 | 15.5% | 2.22 | .262 | 11.5% | 25.2% | -0.36 |
Bullpens
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
Two strikes
how each starter finishes hitters| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 50% | 46% | 20.6% | 21.8% | 18.3% |
| Slider | 35% | 39% | 37.6% | 31.9% | 21.4% |
| Changeup | 8% | 8% | 35.7% | 17.2% | 18.4% |
| Curveball | 7% | 6% | 41.7% | 30.4% | 20.7% |
| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Changeup | 19% | 40% | 66.7% | 50.0% | 18.4% |
| Curveball | 14% | 30% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.7% |
| Fastball | 33% | 20% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.3% |
| Sinker | 12% | 10% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 17.7% |
Pirates lineup
Projected · facing River Ryan RHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Konnor Griffin SS · bats R | 61.1% | 34.4% | 7.7% | 4.0 | -1.2 | .266 | D | Balanced | Hot |
| 2 | Brandon Lowe 2B · bats L | 62.3% | 39.0% | 16.5% | 3.9 | -0.1 | .371 | B | Power | Hot |
| 3 | Bryan Reynolds LF · bats S | 58.6% | 37.3% | 12.0% | 3.8 | -0.1 | .320 | C | Balanced | Cold |
| 4 | Oneil Cruz CF · bats L | 57.2% | 35.7% | 15.0% | 3.8 | -0.2 | .429 | A | Balanced | Normal |
| 5 | Nick Gonzales 3B · bats R | 65.3% | 34.8% | 5.8% | 3.7 | -0.2 | .365 | B | Contact | Normal |
| 6 | Ryan O'Hearn DH · bats L | 57.8% | 33.6% | 10.0% | 3.6 | -0.1 | .350 | C | Balanced | Normal |
| 7 | Rafael Flores Jr. C · bats R | 57.2% | 35.5% | 14.7% | 3.5 | -0.9 | .366 | B | Power | Normal |
| 8 | Spencer Horwitz 1B · bats L | 54.2% | 27.5% | 5.7% | 3.4 | -0.1 | .224 | F | Balanced | Normal |
| 9 | Jake Mangum RF · bats S | 55.6% | 27.1% | 4.7% | 3.3 | +0.1 | .309 | F | Balanced | Hot |
Tigers lineup
Projected · facing Jared Jones RHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Clark CF · bats L | 61.2% | 31.9% | 7.2% | 4.0 | -2.6 | .308 | D | Balanced | Normal |
| 2 | Hao-Yu Lee 2B · bats R | 55.3% | 30.6% | 10.4% | 3.9 | -4.9 | .362 | B | Power | Normal |
| 3 | Kevin McGonigle 3B · bats L | 62.4% | 36.5% | 12.3% | 3.8 | -2.1 | .373 | B | Contact | Hot |
| 4 | Eduardo Valencia DH · bats R | 62.5% | 37.2% | 13.3% | 3.8 | -3.7 | .419 | B | Power | Hot |
| 5 | Riley Greene LF · bats L | 58.8% | 40.3% | 20.2% | 3.7 | -2.8 | .390 | B | Power | Normal |
| 6 | Dillon Dingler C · bats R | 58.4% | 32.9% | 10.5% | 3.6 | -1.8 | .318 | F | Balanced | Hot |
| 7 | Brett Callahan RF · bats L | 50.6% | 28.2% | 10.2% | 3.5 | -2.3 | .287 | Avg | Balanced | Normal |
| 8 | Spencer Torkelson 1B · bats R | 49.5% | 29.1% | 13.4% | 3.4 | -1.9 | .373 | C | Balanced | Hot |
| 9 | John Peck SS · bats R | 49.5% | 25.7% | 7.9% | 3.3 | -1.8 | .266 | Avg | Balanced | Normal |