MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · DET · batting 6Dillon Dingler
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedHot
.318wOBA vs RHP.309xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · PITJared Jones
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
6.3projected K32%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jared Jones's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 48% usage, 97.8 mph, +8.8″ arm side, +16.6″ rise. Dillon Dingler: wOBA .341 vs league .329 (about even).Fastball 48%Slider: 35% usage, 89.3 mph, -3.4″ arm side, +2.0″ rise. Dillon Dingler: wOBA .301 vs league .290 (about even).Slider 35%Curveball: 9% usage, 83.6 mph, -6.0″ arm side, -10.2″ rise. Dillon Dingler: wOBA .291 vs league .280 (about even).Curveball 9%Changeup: 9% usage, 91.8 mph, +12.1″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Dillon Dingler: wOBA .347 vs league .336 (about even).Changeup 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Dillon Dingler's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Dillon Dingler's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 86.2 mph at 14°Out: 97.0 mph at 27°Out: 100.0 mph at -2°Out: 110.8 mph at -3°Out: 107.2 mph at 35°Out: 73.0 mph at 48°Out: 98.2 mph at 65°Out: 104.0 mph at 9°Double: 100.8 mph at 23°Single: 95.4 mph at -1°Out: 99.9 mph at 31°Out: 98.6 mph at 6°Single: 95.7 mph at 5°Single: 79.2 mph at 19°Double: 104.1 mph at 18°Out: 100.4 mph at 9°Out: 88.8 mph at 8°Out: 100.4 mph at 2°Out: 79.5 mph at 65°Out: 94.9 mph at -20°Out: 97.4 mph at 35°Out: 84.4 mph at -31°Single: 78.1 mph at 20°Out: 93.0 mph at -2°Out: 76.3 mph at -22°Out: 86.8 mph at 26°Out: 84.3 mph at 28°Out: 86.7 mph at -15°Home run: 107.4 mph at 25°Out: 88.9 mph at 1°Out: 74.7 mph at 37°Single: 88.2 mph at 19°Out: 69.0 mph at 13°Out: 95.8 mph at -17°Out: 97.9 mph at 34°Single: 72.6 mph at 39°Out: 91.5 mph at 27°Out: 96.3 mph at -17°Out: 90.5 mph at 36°Out: 98.2 mph at 0°
50% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.4%60.2%-1.8
2+ total bases32.9%34.1%-1.2
Home run10.5%10.4%+0.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Dillon Dingler hits
Where they meet

.298 xwOBA for Dillon Dingler in the spots Jared Jones throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .304 (-6 points). His best spot against righties is up and left, outside, and Jared Jones puts 9% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Jared Jones · where he throws to right-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing4%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing3%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing5%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing6%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 26% per swing10%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 32% per swing9%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing10%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing7%28% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 66% per swing28%
All · 446 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%15% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters15%15% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters15%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%15% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters15%
Fastball · 216 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%12% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters12%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%10% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters10%40% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters40%
Slider · 188 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%13% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters13%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%13% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters13%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%47% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters47%
Curveball · 32 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Dillon Dingler · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .204 shrunk (raw .065 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 22 pitches seen.204xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .090 on 6 PA) · league .307 · 25 pitches seen.235xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .209 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 19 pitches seen.247xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .249 on 18 PA) · league .342 · 44 pitches seen.286xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw .265 on 22 PA) · league .386 · 44 pitches seen.308xwOBA .347 shrunk (raw .365 on 18 PA) · league .321 · 43 pitches seen.347xwOBA .387 shrunk (raw .455 on 14 PA) · league .308 · 32 pitches seen.387xwOBA .426 shrunk (raw .482 on 16 PA) · league .351 · 46 pitches seen.426xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .392 on 16 PA) · league .292 · 47 pitches seen.349xwOBA .487 shrunk (raw .561 on 18 PA) · league .377 · 85 pitches seen.487xwOBA .248 shrunk (raw .220 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 62 pitches seen.248xwOBA .188 shrunk (raw .128 on 15 PA) · league .263 · 67 pitches seen.188xwOBA .230 shrunk (raw .213 on 31 PA) · league .274 · 208 pitches seen.230
vs RHP · 744 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 6% of 17 swings · league 22%6%Whiff 6% of 16 swings · league 20%6%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 19%18%Whiff 0% of 26 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 5% of 37 swings · league 9%5%Whiff 7% of 28 swings · league 11%7%Whiff 13% of 23 swings · league 14%13%Whiff 7% of 30 swings · league 13%7%Whiff 19% of 27 swings · league 17%19%Whiff 22% of 18 swings · league 28%22%Whiff 40% of 15 swings · league 24%40%Whiff 25% of 32 swings · league 32%25%Whiff 52% of 64 swings · league 49%52%
vs RHP · 744 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 77% of 22 pitches · league 62%77%Swings at 64% of 25 pitches · league 72%64%Swings at 58% of 19 pitches · league 66%58%Swings at 59% of 44 pitches · league 70%59%Swings at 84% of 44 pitches · league 76%84%Swings at 65% of 43 pitches · league 70%65%Swings at 72% of 32 pitches · league 65%72%Swings at 65% of 46 pitches · league 68%65%Swings at 57% of 47 pitches · league 60%57%Swings at 21% of 85 pitches · league 24%21%Swings at 24% of 62 pitches · league 34%24%Swings at 48% of 67 pitches · league 40%48%Swings at 31% of 208 pitches · league 32%31%
vs RHP · 744 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Dillon Dingler against each of Jared Jones's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball48%97.8+9″ / +17″.341.32918.5%21.0%179About league average vs these
Slider35%89.3-3″ / +2″.301.29031.2%33.4%131About league average vs these
Curveball9%83.6-6″ / -10″.291.28033.2%33.0%66About league average vs these
Changeup9%91.8+12″ / +5″.347.33619.2%22.3%111About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Dillon Dingler · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.400.400.500.485.48110.0%0.0%22.2%95.3110.811.1%77.8%44.4%
Last 15 G1543.220.209.341.251.30423.3%0.0%24.4%90.3110.86.1%45.5%42.4%
Last 30 G2881.203.247.284.248.30421.0%3.7%21.5%87.7110.85.1%40.7%39.0%
90 days63196.230.291.416.316.30720.9%4.1%20.1%86.5110.86.5%35.3%38.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 139 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 22%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.125.300.125.230.50130.0%20.0%26.3%97.7107.220.0%80.0%40.0%
Last 15 G917.133.235.200.209.37735.3%11.8%20.6%93.7107.211.1%66.7%44.4%
Last 30 G1938.139.184.167.164.25334.2%5.3%25.9%89.8108.74.3%52.2%39.1%
90 days4693.193.226.227.216.26431.2%3.2%21.3%87.8108.73.3%40.0%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 60 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 23%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 13%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.278.350.333.358.49120.0%10.0%24.3%96.1110.814.3%78.6%42.9%
Last 15 G1560.196.217.304.239.32526.7%3.3%23.3%91.0110.87.1%50.0%42.9%
Last 30 G30119.182.227.245.221.28825.2%4.2%23.0%88.3110.84.9%43.9%39.0%
90 days68289.218.270.353.283.29324.2%3.8%20.5%86.9110.85.5%36.7%36.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 199 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 22%Fly ball 30%Pop-up 12%
Dillon Dingler · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating47Average
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.288 / .313running 25 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider90.686.214.862Single
Sep 25RHPFastball96.797.027.494Out
Sep 25LHPCurveball78.7100.0-2.298Force out
Sep 25RHPFastball97.7110.8-3.401Fielder's choice
Sep 25LHPFastball89.8107.2351.663Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper85.873.048.121Out
Sep 23LHPFastball91.098.265.017Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup81.9104.09.738Out
Sep 21RHPFastball97.6100.823.794Double
Sep 21RHPSlider84.195.4-1.271Single
Sep 19RHPSlider86.299.931.864Out
Sep 19RHPCurveball77.298.66.549Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25511000
Sep 23400010
Sep 21423011
Sep 19411001
Sep 18311002
Sep 17412000
Sep 16400000
Sep 14411002
Sep 13400001
Sep 11414102

Two strikes

Jared Jones PIT · RHPwith two strikes
Jared Jones with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball50%46%20.6%21.8%18.3%
Slider35%39%37.6%31.9%21.4%
Changeup8%8%35.7%17.2%18.4%
Curveball7%6%41.7%30.4%20.7%
Dillon Dingler bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Dillon Dingler with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.5%43.3%
Whiff%22.9%23.5%
Contact%77.1%76.5%
Chase%41.9%39.4%
wOBA.236.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.9%24.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.304
K%24.1%
BB%4.2%
Whiff%9.9%
Barrel%4.3%
Hard-hit%26.0%
Avg EV87.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

192 PA
wOBA.318
xwOBA vs this mix.309against pitches like his
RV/100-0.01
Hard-hit%25.1%
K%21.4%
BB%4.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jared JonesRHP · PIT vs DET
6.3projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 10 · 20.9 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 12.9%13%≤34 strikeouts: 12.1%12%45 strikeouts: 15.2%15%56 strikeouts: 15.8%16%67 strikeouts: 14.2%14%78 strikeouts: 11.2%11%89+ strikeouts: 18.6%19%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 44% (red bars) · under: 56%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%31.8%
BB%7.5%
Whiff%14.9%
Velo93.8
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball50%10698.19.9%
Slider35%11489.721.9%
Changeup8%9192.415.8%
Curveball7%9785.715.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228641%20%18%.057
Sep 169139%15%22%.320
Sep 109033%20%17%.110

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jared Jones PIT · RHPvsDET lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Dillon Dingler: every projection we've made →