MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · DET · batting 2Hao-Yu Lee
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerNormal
.362wOBA vs RHP.321xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · PITJared Jones
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
6.3projected K32%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Jared Jones's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 48% usage, 97.8 mph, +8.8″ arm side, +16.6″ rise. Hao-Yu Lee: wOBA .336 vs league .329 (about even).Fastball 48%Slider: 35% usage, 89.3 mph, -3.4″ arm side, +2.0″ rise. Hao-Yu Lee: wOBA .297 vs league .290 (about even).Slider 35%Curveball: 9% usage, 83.6 mph, -6.0″ arm side, -10.2″ rise. Hao-Yu Lee: wOBA .286 vs league .280 (about even).Curveball 9%Changeup: 9% usage, 91.8 mph, +12.1″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Hao-Yu Lee: wOBA .343 vs league .336 (about even).Changeup 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Hao-Yu Lee's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Hao-Yu Lee's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 88.3 mph at -42°Out: 65.2 mph at -59°Out: 101.9 mph at 4°Out: 95.3 mph at 39°Out: 36.6 mph at -43°Out: 60.8 mph at 7°Out: 79.2 mph at 77°Single: 87.4 mph at 16°Out: 92.2 mph at 45°Single: 100.0 mph at 13°Out: 101.8 mph at -13°Out: 95.0 mph at 34°Single: 99.0 mph at 4°Double: 92.1 mph at -13°Double: 101.9 mph at 24°Out: 92.9 mph at 23°Out: 77.8 mph at 39°Out: 88.7 mph at 36°Single: 105.8 mph at 14°Single: 97.5 mph at 9°Single: 101.1 mph at 13°Out: 92.9 mph at -3°Home run: 100.2 mph at 27°Single: 99.0 mph at 8°Double: 108.9 mph at 18°Out: 40.3 mph at 40°Out: 73.0 mph at 74°Out: 57.9 mph at -79°Single: 90.9 mph at 19°Out: 106.1 mph at -22°Home run: 106.1 mph at 33°Out: 56.3 mph at -44°Out: 90.1 mph at 47°Out: 86.4 mph at -7°Out: 105.9 mph at 17°Out: 62.3 mph at -60°Out: 91.5 mph at 51°Out: 83.0 mph at -5°Double: 96.9 mph at 26°Out: 87.0 mph at 39°
43% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.3%60.2%-4.9
2+ total bases30.6%34.7%-4.2
Home run10.4%12.5%-2.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-4.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-4.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-2.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Hao-Yu Lee hits
Where they meet

.309 xwOBA for Hao-Yu Lee in the spots Jared Jones throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .304 (+6 points). His best spot against righties is down-left, and Jared Jones puts 3% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Jared Jones · where he throws to right-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing4%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing3%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing5%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing6%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing8%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 26% per swing10%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 32% per swing9%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing10%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing7%28% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 66% per swing28%
All · 446 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%15% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters15%15% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters15%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%15% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters15%
Fastball · 216 pitches · catcher's view
4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%2% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%12% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters12%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%10% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters10%40% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters40%
Slider · 188 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%13% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters13%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%13% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters13%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%47% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters47%
Curveball · 32 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Hao-Yu Lee · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .282 shrunk (raw .297 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 21 pitches seen.282xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .124 on 5 PA) · league .307 · 22 pitches seen.253xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .378 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 23 pitches seen.312xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .216 on 14 PA) · league .342 · 33 pitches seen.274xwOBA .389 shrunk (raw .391 on 17 PA) · league .386 · 46 pitches seen.389xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw .388 on 9 PA) · league .321 · 31 pitches seen.350xwOBA .358 shrunk (raw .443 on 7 PA) · league .308 · 16 pitches seen.358xwOBA .381 shrunk (raw .406 on 14 PA) · league .351 · 35 pitches seen.381xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .260 on 12 PA) · league .292 · 40 pitches seen.276xwOBA .367 shrunk (raw .356 on 10 PA) · league .377 · 66 pitches seen.367xwOBA .309 shrunk (raw .362 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 55 pitches seen.309xwOBA .241 shrunk (raw .207 on 8 PA) · league .263 · 36 pitches seen.241xwOBA .287 shrunk (raw .293 on 26 PA) · league .274 · 163 pitches seen.287
vs RHP · 587 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 43% of 14 swings · league 22%43%Whiff 27% of 15 swings · league 20%27%Whiff 20% of 15 swings · league 19%20%Whiff 0% of 19 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 15% of 34 swings · league 9%15%Whiff 10% of 20 swings · league 11%10%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 14%18%Whiff 14% of 22 swings · league 13%14%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 17%13%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 28%13%Whiff 25% of 12 swings · league 24%25%Whiff 25% of 12 swings · league 32%25%Whiff 46% of 50 swings · league 49%46%
vs RHP · 587 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 21 pitches · league 62%67%Swings at 68% of 22 pitches · league 72%68%Swings at 65% of 23 pitches · league 66%65%Swings at 58% of 33 pitches · league 70%58%Swings at 74% of 46 pitches · league 76%74%Swings at 65% of 31 pitches · league 70%65%Swings at 69% of 16 pitches · league 65%69%Swings at 63% of 35 pitches · league 68%63%Swings at 38% of 40 pitches · league 60%38%Swings at 23% of 66 pitches · league 24%23%Swings at 22% of 55 pitches · league 34%22%Swings at 33% of 36 pitches · league 40%33%Swings at 31% of 163 pitches · league 32%31%
vs RHP · 587 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Hao-Yu Lee against each of Jared Jones's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball48%97.8+9″ / +17″.336.32926.6%21.0%49About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider35%89.3-3″ / +2″.297.29031.4%33.4%46About league average vs these
Curveball9%83.6-6″ / -10″.286.28030.4%33.0%17About league average vs these
Changeup9%91.8+12″ / +5″.343.33623.3%22.3%24About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Hao-Yu Lee · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.143.200.214.190.18113.3%6.7%16.7%86.1101.90.0%25.0%8.3%
Last 15 G1556.208.304.312.296.24523.2%12.5%20.4%86.3106.10.0%33.3%27.8%
Last 30 G2788.224.318.395.325.30423.9%12.5%23.9%89.1110.05.4%42.9%32.1%
90 days49146.270.356.468.364.32420.5%12.3%22.8%88.9110.08.2%43.9%31.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 98 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 21%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G59.375.444.500.417.46522.2%11.1%11.8%87.1101.916.7%66.7%50.0%
Last 15 G914.462.5001.077.643.54828.6%7.1%17.9%93.1108.944.4%77.8%55.6%
Last 30 G1840.270.325.486.350.34327.5%7.5%21.0%93.8112.219.2%57.7%34.6%
90 days4484.256.298.397.303.30825.0%6.0%23.1%91.2112.210.3%50.0%36.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 58 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 28%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G524.227.292.318.275.28716.7%8.3%14.6%86.4101.95.6%38.9%22.2%
Last 15 G1570.262.343.475.365.30624.3%11.4%19.8%87.6108.98.9%42.2%33.3%
Last 30 G30128.239.320.425.333.31625.0%10.9%23.0%90.6112.29.8%47.6%32.9%
90 days64230.265.335.441.342.31822.2%10.0%22.9%89.8112.29.0%46.2%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 156 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 24%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 11%
Hao-Yu Lee · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating71Above average
Last 100 pitches31trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.348 / .337results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider90.988.3-42.074Out
Sep 25RHPSlider86.165.2-59.235Out
Sep 25RHPCutter91.1101.94.554Out
Sep 25RHPSlider91.495.339.109Out
Sep 25LHPFastball91.636.6-43.261Force out
Sep 23RHPSinker94.960.87.120Out
Sep 23RHPSlider90.279.277.005Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper80.187.416.909Single
Sep 23RHPSweeper83.992.245.014Out
Sep 22LHPSinker90.7100.013.889Single
Sep 22LHPSlider87.2101.8-13.257Double play
Sep 21LHPChangeup81.595.034.149Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25500000
Sep 23511001
Sep 22511021
Sep 21535000
Sep 20400002
Sep 19522003
Sep 18548100
Sep 16400001
Sep 15525101
Sep 14400001

Two strikes

Jared Jones PIT · RHPwith two strikes
Jared Jones with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball50%46%20.6%21.8%18.3%
Slider35%39%37.6%31.9%21.4%
Changeup8%8%35.7%17.2%18.4%
Curveball7%6%41.7%30.4%20.7%
Hao-Yu Lee bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Hao-Yu Lee with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.7%43.3%
Whiff%24.8%23.5%
Contact%75.2%76.5%
Chase%38.2%39.4%
wOBA.232.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes26.5%24.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.333
K%22.3%
BB%9.3%
Whiff%10.4%
Barrel%5.8%
Hard-hit%30.4%
Avg EV90.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

142 PA
wOBA.362
xwOBA vs this mix.321against pitches like his
RV/1001.15
Hard-hit%29.4%
K%21.4%
BB%9.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jared JonesRHP · PIT vs DET
6.3projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 10 · 20.9 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 12.9%13%≤34 strikeouts: 12.1%12%45 strikeouts: 15.2%15%56 strikeouts: 15.8%16%67 strikeouts: 14.2%14%78 strikeouts: 11.2%11%89+ strikeouts: 18.6%19%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 44% (red bars) · under: 56%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%31.8%
BB%7.5%
Whiff%14.9%
Velo93.8
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball50%10698.19.9%
Slider35%11489.721.9%
Changeup8%9192.415.8%
Curveball7%9785.715.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228641%20%18%.057
Sep 169139%15%22%.320
Sep 109033%20%17%.110

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jared Jones PIT · RHPvsDET lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Hao-Yu Lee: every projection we've made →