MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · DET · batting 3Kevin McGonigle
Bats leftTalent grade BContactHot
.373wOBA vs RHP.364xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · PITJared Jones
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
6.3projected K32%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Jared Jones's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 48% usage, 97.8 mph, +8.8″ arm side, +16.6″ rise. Kevin McGonigle: wOBA .366 vs league .336 (hitter's edge).Fastball 48%Slider: 35% usage, 89.3 mph, -3.4″ arm side, +2.0″ rise. Kevin McGonigle: wOBA .354 vs league .323 (hitter's edge).Slider 35%Curveball: 9% usage, 83.6 mph, -6.0″ arm side, -10.2″ rise. Kevin McGonigle: wOBA .316 vs league .285 (hitter's edge).Curveball 9%Changeup: 9% usage, 91.8 mph, +12.1″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Kevin McGonigle: wOBA .350 vs league .320 (hitter's edge).Changeup 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Kevin McGonigle's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Kevin McGonigle's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 103.0 mph at 39°Out: 96.4 mph at 32°Double: 103.2 mph at 22°Single: 105.1 mph at 13°Out: 55.4 mph at -4°Single: 78.0 mph at -27°Single: 35.3 mph at -57°Double: 96.5 mph at 20°Out: 85.9 mph at -10°Out: 93.4 mph at 32°Out: 68.5 mph at 5°Out: 82.4 mph at 36°Out: 60.5 mph at 10°Out: 103.3 mph at -10°Out: 96.6 mph at 33°Single: 82.8 mph at 25°Triple: 103.8 mph at 28°Single: 81.7 mph at 19°Out: 98.7 mph at 32°Out: 94.3 mph at -9°Out: 102.5 mph at 7°Single: 69.3 mph at 15°Single: 79.6 mph at 3°Out: 98.7 mph at 36°Out: 87.8 mph at 65°Single: 88.6 mph at 14°Single: 96.8 mph at 14°Out: 99.6 mph at 2°Out: 100.9 mph at 35°Out: 33.0 mph at -72°Out: 83.4 mph at 39°Single: 99.9 mph at 12°Out: 68.9 mph at -21°Single: 101.5 mph at 12°Triple: 99.9 mph at 29°Out: 82.7 mph at -3°Out: 100.0 mph at 19°Home run: 106.0 mph at 23°Out: 97.4 mph at 22°Out: 100.8 mph at 16°
53% hit 95+ mph50% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.4%64.5%-2.1
2+ total bases36.5%38.3%-1.8
Home run12.3%13.5%-1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Kevin McGonigle hits
Where they meet

.359 xwOBA for Kevin McGonigle in the spots Jared Jones throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .315 (+44 points). His best spot against righties is down and right, outside, and Jared Jones puts 20% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Jared Jones · where he throws to left-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing5%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing6%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing8%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 21% per swing5%19% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing19%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing5%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing10%20% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 61% per swing20%
All · 706 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%1% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters1%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%27% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters27%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%
Fastball · 359 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%12% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters12%33% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters33%
Slider · 210 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters20% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters20%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters34% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters34%21% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters21%
Changeup · 85 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%39% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters39%
Curveball · 52 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Kevin McGonigle · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .329 shrunk (raw .402 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 49 pitches seen.329xwOBA .281 shrunk (raw .255 on 12 PA) · league .307 · 45 pitches seen.281xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .330 on 10 PA) · league .263 · 30 pitches seen.293xwOBA .390 shrunk (raw .418 on 21 PA) · league .342 · 59 pitches seen.390xwOBA .428 shrunk (raw .444 on 32 PA) · league .386 · 73 pitches seen.428xwOBA .325 shrunk (raw .327 on 19 PA) · league .321 · 50 pitches seen.325xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .304 on 22 PA) · league .308 · 47 pitches seen.305xwOBA .425 shrunk (raw .468 on 21 PA) · league .351 · 60 pitches seen.425xwOBA .358 shrunk (raw .410 on 15 PA) · league .292 · 51 pitches seen.358xwOBA .425 shrunk (raw .454 on 20 PA) · league .377 · 117 pitches seen.425xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .171 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 45 pitches seen.253xwOBA .248 shrunk (raw .242 on 29 PA) · league .263 · 150 pitches seen.248xwOBA .382 shrunk (raw .432 on 26 PA) · league .274 · 176 pitches seen.382
vs RHP · 952 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 27% of 15 swings · league 22%27%Whiff 15% of 20 swings · league 20%15%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 19%6%Whiff 12% of 41 swings · league 10%12%Whiff 4% of 53 swings · league 9%4%Whiff 5% of 40 swings · league 11%5%Whiff 6% of 34 swings · league 14%6%Whiff 7% of 43 swings · league 13%7%Whiff 3% of 35 swings · league 17%3%Whiff 31% of 13 swings · league 28%31%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 24%8%Whiff 19% of 47 swings · league 32%19%Whiff 28% of 43 swings · league 49%28%
vs RHP · 952 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 31% of 49 pitches · league 62%31%Swings at 44% of 45 pitches · league 72%44%Swings at 60% of 30 pitches · league 66%60%Swings at 70% of 59 pitches · league 70%70%Swings at 73% of 73 pitches · league 76%73%Swings at 80% of 50 pitches · league 70%80%Swings at 72% of 47 pitches · league 65%72%Swings at 72% of 60 pitches · league 68%72%Swings at 69% of 51 pitches · league 60%69%Swings at 11% of 117 pitches · league 24%11%Swings at 27% of 45 pitches · league 34%27%Swings at 31% of 150 pitches · league 40%31%Swings at 24% of 176 pitches · league 32%24%
vs RHP · 952 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Kevin McGonigle against each of Jared Jones's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball48%97.8+9″ / +17″.366.33610.3%20.6%135Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Slider35%89.3-3″ / +2″.354.32315.2%29.5%51Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Curveball9%83.6-6″ / -10″.316.28517.5%32.7%26Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Changeup9%91.8+12″ / +5″.350.32016.5%24.3%83Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Kevin McGonigle · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.154.200.231.190.31420.0%6.7%12.0%90.8105.19.1%54.5%45.5%
Last 15 G1556.319.411.574.418.43614.3%14.3%11.8%89.3106.010.0%47.5%50.0%
Last 30 G2895.244.337.476.359.40412.6%12.6%10.4%88.2108.49.9%43.7%45.1%
90 days68241.282.378.476.382.37712.0%13.3%11.8%87.6108.47.3%39.3%40.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 178 balls in play
Ground 32%Line drive 26%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G510.444.500.556.535.16440.0%10.0%25.0%69.696.50.0%20.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1117.333.412.400.409.30829.4%11.8%19.2%80.4101.50.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 30 G2044.256.341.333.344.33818.2%11.4%25.4%84.7106.06.5%35.5%32.3%
90 days51106.239.321.315.313.28220.8%11.3%22.0%88.0106.04.2%36.1%31.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 72 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 18%Fly ball 33%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G525.273.320.364.328.25428.0%8.0%17.1%84.1105.16.2%43.8%43.8%
Last 15 G1573.323.411.532.416.40617.8%13.7%13.5%87.5106.08.0%48.0%50.0%
Last 30 G30139.248.338.430.355.38314.4%12.2%15.0%87.1108.48.8%41.2%41.2%
90 days74347.268.360.426.361.34814.7%12.7%14.8%87.7108.46.4%38.4%38.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 250 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 24%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 9%
Kevin McGonigle · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating90Top tier
Last 100 pitches18trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.357 / .366results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter91.8103.039.615Out
Sep 25RHPFastball96.596.432.362Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper84.1103.222.927Double
Sep 23RHPSinker98.5105.113.824Single
Sep 23LHPSinker88.455.4-4.109Out
Sep 23LHPFastball90.378.0-27.040Single
Sep 22LHPSlider83.235.3-57.266Single
Sep 22LHPSlider85.896.520.340Double
Sep 20RHPFastball92.785.9-10.119Out
Sep 20RHPFastball94.293.432.178Out
Sep 20RHPFastball93.368.55.208Out
Sep 19RHPCutter90.782.436.025Sac fly
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25500012
Sep 23534001
Sep 22523003
Sep 20500011
Sep 19511000
Sep 18624010
Sep 17522011
Sep 16522001
Sep 15400030
Sep 14522000

Two strikes

Jared Jones PIT · RHPwith two strikes
Jared Jones with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball50%46%20.6%21.8%18.3%
Slider35%39%37.6%31.9%21.4%
Changeup8%8%35.7%17.2%18.4%
Curveball7%6%41.7%30.4%20.7%
Kevin McGonigle bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Kevin McGonigle with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%28.3%41.3%
Whiff%11.8%21.6%
Contact%88.2%78.4%
Chase%32.4%39.4%
wOBA.292.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes13.5%24.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.347
K%15.8%
BB%11.4%
Whiff%7.0%
Barrel%4.7%
Hard-hit%27.5%
Avg EV87.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

238 PA
wOBA.373
xwOBA vs this mix.364against pitches like his
RV/1001.21
Hard-hit%28.7%
K%13.2%
BB%11.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jared JonesRHP · PIT vs DET
6.3projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 10 · 20.9 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 12.9%13%≤34 strikeouts: 12.1%12%45 strikeouts: 15.2%15%56 strikeouts: 15.8%16%67 strikeouts: 14.2%14%78 strikeouts: 11.2%11%89+ strikeouts: 18.6%19%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 44% (red bars) · under: 56%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%31.8%
BB%7.5%
Whiff%14.9%
Velo93.8
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball50%10698.19.9%
Slider35%11489.721.9%
Changeup8%9192.415.8%
Curveball7%9785.715.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228641%20%18%.057
Sep 169139%15%22%.320
Sep 109033%20%17%.110

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jared Jones PIT · RHPvsDET lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Kevin McGonigle: every projection we've made →