MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · DET · batting 1Max Clark
Bats leftTalent grade DBalancedNormal
.308wOBA vs RHP.306xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · PITJared Jones
Throws rightBTB Stuff 107Trending Up
6.3projected K32%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Jared Jones's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 48% usage, 97.8 mph, +8.8″ arm side, +16.6″ rise. Max Clark: wOBA .328 vs league .336 (about even).Fastball 48%Slider: 35% usage, 89.3 mph, -3.4″ arm side, +2.0″ rise. Max Clark: wOBA .315 vs league .323 (about even).Slider 35%Curveball: 9% usage, 83.6 mph, -6.0″ arm side, -10.2″ rise. Max Clark: wOBA .277 vs league .285 (about even).Curveball 9%Changeup: 9% usage, 91.8 mph, +12.1″ arm side, +4.7″ rise. Max Clark: wOBA .312 vs league .320 (about even).Changeup 9%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Max Clark's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Max Clark's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 96.5 mph at -7°Out: 100.4 mph at 41°Single: 20.0 mph at 12°Out: 93.3 mph at -10°Double: 64.6 mph at 14°Out: 31.8 mph at 11°Single: 89.2 mph at 12°Single: 71.0 mph at 27°Out: 106.7 mph at 1°Out: 101.8 mph at 33°Out: 100.7 mph at -31°Out: 89.8 mph at 67°Out: 93.9 mph at -13°Single: 68.5 mph at 37°Out: 90.9 mph at -5°Out: 81.0 mph at 50°Out: 101.1 mph at 23°Out: 77.5 mph at 41°Single: 95.5 mph at 11°Single: 84.7 mph at -31°Out: 70.4 mph at -50°Out: 88.2 mph at 60°Single: 75.7 mph at 13°Out: 74.0 mph at 52°Out: 65.0 mph at -24°Double: 99.4 mph at 3°Single: 60.9 mph at 9°Out: 79.0 mph at -51°Double: 86.2 mph at 27°Out: 100.6 mph at 0°Out: 81.2 mph at -26°Out: 102.2 mph at -6°Single: 92.0 mph at 8°Out: 97.2 mph at 20°Single: 102.3 mph at 3°Out: 75.4 mph at 55°Single: 52.5 mph at -60°Double: 103.4 mph at 5°Home run: 95.2 mph at 28°Out: 99.3 mph at 33°
38% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.2%63.8%-2.6
2+ total bases31.9%34.3%-2.4
Home run7.2%8.4%-1.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Max Clark hits
Where they meet

.321 xwOBA for Max Clark in the spots Jared Jones throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .315 (+5 points). His best spot against righties is up and left, outside, and Jared Jones puts 19% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Jared Jones · where he throws to left-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing5%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing6%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing8%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 21% per swing5%19% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing19%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing5%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing10%20% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 61% per swing20%
All · 706 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%1% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters1%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%27% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters27%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%
Fastball · 359 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters3%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%6% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%8% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters8%1% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters1%12% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters12%33% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters33%
Slider · 210 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%4% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters20% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters20%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters34% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters34%21% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters21%
Changeup · 85 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%39% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters39%
Curveball · 52 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Max Clark · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .267 shrunk (raw .256 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 32 pitches seen.267xwOBA .265 shrunk (raw .182 on 6 PA) · league .307 · 26 pitches seen.265xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .299 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 13 pitches seen.274xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .224 on 8 PA) · league .342 · 31 pitches seen.295xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .219 on 15 PA) · league .386 · 34 pitches seen.293xwOBA .359 shrunk (raw .405 on 10 PA) · league .321 · 23 pitches seen.359xwOBA .289 shrunk (raw .266 on 10 PA) · league .308 · 21 pitches seen.289xwOBA .454 shrunk (raw .701 on 5 PA) · league .351 · 21 pitches seen.454xwOBA .303 shrunk (raw .323 on 7 PA) · league .292 · 22 pitches seen.303xwOBA .495 shrunk (raw .613 on 12 PA) · league .377 · 83 pitches seen.495xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .284 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 28 pitches seen.278xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .259 on 16 PA) · league .263 · 57 pitches seen.261xwOBA .211 shrunk (raw .173 on 20 PA) · league .274 · 95 pitches seen.211
vs RHP · 486 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 6% of 17 swings · league 22%6%Whiff 15% of 20 swings · league 20%15%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 6% of 16 swings · league 10%6%Whiff 0% of 24 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 11%6%Whiff 6% of 18 swings · league 14%6%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 13%8%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 17%8%Whiff 7% of 15 swings · league 28%7%Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 24%33%Whiff 21% of 19 swings · league 32%21%Whiff 42% of 36 swings · league 49%42%
vs RHP · 486 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 53% of 32 pitches · league 62%53%Swings at 77% of 26 pitches · league 72%77%Swings at 54% of 13 pitches · league 66%54%Swings at 52% of 31 pitches · league 70%52%Swings at 71% of 34 pitches · league 76%71%Swings at 78% of 23 pitches · league 70%78%Swings at 86% of 21 pitches · league 65%86%Swings at 57% of 21 pitches · league 68%57%Swings at 59% of 22 pitches · league 60%59%Swings at 18% of 83 pitches · league 24%18%Swings at 32% of 28 pitches · league 34%32%Swings at 33% of 57 pitches · league 40%33%Swings at 38% of 95 pitches · league 32%38%
vs RHP · 486 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Max Clark against each of Jared Jones's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball48%97.8+9″ / +17″.328.33610.9%20.6%38About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider35%89.3-3″ / +2″.315.32327.0%29.5%15About league average vs these
Curveball9%83.6-6″ / -10″.277.28529.6%32.7%5Little history vs this shape
Changeup9%91.8+12″ / +5″.312.32018.0%24.3%19About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Max Clark · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.091.214.091.164.36214.3%14.3%20.0%94.5106.710.0%50.0%10.0%
Last 15 G1547.243.383.405.352.33812.8%14.9%12.5%91.0106.76.2%43.8%25.0%
Last 30 G2877.190.325.302.291.32122.1%14.3%15.9%90.1106.74.3%46.8%34.0%
90 days47132.226.318.348.300.30622.0%9.8%14.3%88.3106.72.3%39.1%36.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 87 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 21%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.800.8331.000.808.47014.3%14.3%0.0%54.889.20.0%0.0%80.0%
Last 15 G1016.571.600.643.563.36812.5%6.2%13.6%69.5103.40.0%15.4%53.8%
Last 30 G2041.486.526.743.576.41412.2%4.9%10.4%77.6105.00.0%30.3%36.4%
90 days3465.393.452.607.477.38415.4%7.7%13.1%79.7105.02.0%36.7%36.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 49 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 27%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 2%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.312.400.375.358.39414.3%14.3%14.8%81.3106.76.7%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1563.333.435.471.403.34612.7%12.7%12.8%84.8106.74.4%35.6%33.3%
Last 30 G30118.296.391.459.386.35218.6%11.0%13.9%84.9106.72.5%40.0%35.0%
90 days49197.281.361.433.357.33119.8%9.1%13.9%85.2106.72.2%38.2%36.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 136 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 23%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 10%
Max Clark · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating59Average
Last 100 pitches98trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.346 / .327running 20 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit11/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider89.396.5-7.241Out
Sep 25RHPCutter93.2100.441.257Out
Sep 25LHPCurveball78.520.012.276Single
Sep 23RHPSweeper83.893.3-10.244Double play
Sep 23LHPFastball90.764.614.229Double
Sep 23LHPSinker90.031.811–Sac bunt
Sep 22LHPSlider85.489.212.751Single
Sep 22RHPFastball96.571.027.873Single
Sep 22RHPSlider90.1106.71.516Out
Sep 20RHPSlider84.1101.8331.116Sac fly
Sep 20RHPChangeup89.8100.7-31.078Force out
Sep 20RHPFastball96.689.867.015Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25511002
Sep 23412010
Sep 22422001
Sep 20400010
Sep 19411010
Sep 18511010
Sep 17411001
Sep 16411001
Sep 15523001
Sep 14412000

Two strikes

Jared Jones PIT · RHPwith two strikes
Jared Jones with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball50%46%20.6%21.8%18.3%
Slider35%39%37.6%31.9%21.4%
Changeup8%8%35.7%17.2%18.4%
Curveball7%6%41.7%30.4%20.7%
Max Clark bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Max Clark with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%45.2%41.3%
Whiff%21.5%21.6%
Contact%78.5%78.4%
Chase%43.3%39.4%
wOBA.237.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.4%24.4%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeDBalanced type
wOBA.337
K%20.5%
BB%8.7%
Whiff%7.0%
Barrel%2.9%
Hard-hit%26.3%
Avg EV85.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

132 PA
wOBA.308
xwOBA vs this mix.306against pitches like his
RV/100-0.54
Hard-hit%25.9%
K%21.8%
BB%9.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jared JonesRHP · PIT vs DET
6.3projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 10 · 20.9 batters over 4.9 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 12.9%13%≤34 strikeouts: 12.1%12%45 strikeouts: 15.2%15%56 strikeouts: 15.8%16%67 strikeouts: 14.2%14%78 strikeouts: 11.2%11%89+ strikeouts: 18.6%19%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 44% (red bars) · under: 56%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%31.8%
BB%7.5%
Whiff%14.9%
Velo93.8
BTB Stuff107
Location103
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball50%10698.19.9%
Slider35%11489.721.9%
Changeup8%9192.415.8%
Curveball7%9785.715.5%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 228641%20%18%.057
Sep 169139%15%22%.320
Sep 109033%20%17%.110

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jared Jones PIT · RHPvsDET lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Max Clark: every projection we've made →