MLBengine v14
← PIT at DET, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PIT · batting 5Nick Gonzales
Bats rightTalent grade BContactNormal
.365wOBA vs RHP.331xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · DETRiver Ryan
Throws rightBTB Stuff 110Stable
2.7projected K25%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
River Ryan's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 39% usage, 96.4 mph, +7.8″ arm side, +15.5″ rise. Nick Gonzales: wOBA .339 vs league .336 (about even).Fastball 39%Slider: 21% usage, 89.9 mph, -4.7″ arm side, -1.8″ rise. Nick Gonzales: wOBA .286 vs league .282 (about even).Slider 21%Curveball: 15% usage, 83.0 mph, -11.5″ arm side, -11.6″ rise. Nick Gonzales: wOBA .286 vs league .282 (about even).Curveball 15%Sinker: 10% usage, 94.6 mph, +15.2″ arm side, +7.3″ rise. Nick Gonzales: wOBA .349 vs league .345 (about even).Sinker 10%Changeup: 10% usage, 89.8 mph, +15.1″ arm side, +3.0″ rise. Nick Gonzales: wOBA .331 vs league .327 (about even).Changeup 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Nick Gonzales's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit65.3%65.5%-0.2
2+ total bases34.8%35.1%-0.3
Home run5.8%6.0%-0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
0.0
Park
+0.0

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Pitch by pitch

Nick Gonzales against each of River Ryan's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball39%96.4+8″ / +16″.339.33621.6%20.5%260About league average vs these
Slider21%89.9-5″ / -2″.286.28229.7%34.7%185About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball15%83.0-12″ / -12″.286.28225.5%30.9%71About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker10%94.6+15″ / +7″.349.34512.4%11.6%300About league average vs these
Changeup10%89.8+15″ / +3″.331.32722.1%25.9%142About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating69Above average
Last 100 pitches28trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.360 / .336running 24 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

River Ryan DET · RHPwith two strikes
River Ryan with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Changeup19%40%66.7%50.0%18.4%
Curveball14%30%0.0%0.0%20.7%
Fastball33%20%0.0%0.0%18.3%
Sinker12%10%100.0%100.0%17.7%
Nick Gonzales bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Nick Gonzales with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%39.1%43.3%
Whiff%21.3%23.5%
Contact%78.7%76.5%
Chase%37.5%39.4%
wOBA.259.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes––

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBContact type
wOBA.340
K%15.0%
BB%7.7%
Whiff%10.1%
Barrel%1.9%
Hard-hit%24.3%
Avg EV87.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

180 PA
wOBA.365
xwOBA vs this mix.331against pitches like his
RV/1001.20
Hard-hit%24.1%
K%16.6%
BB%8.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
River RyanRHP · DET vs PIT
2.7projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 5 · 10.7 batters over 2.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 71.9%72%≤34 strikeouts: 14.7%15%45 strikeouts: 7.8%8%56 strikeouts: 3.6%4%67 strikeouts: 1.3%1%78 strikeouts: 0.5%1%89+ strikeouts: 0.2%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.0%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%14.0%
Velo91.8
BTB Stuff110
Location99
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball33%12696.50.0%
Changeup19%9389.837.5%
Curveball14%10182.316.7%
Cutter12%11793.00.0%
Sinker12%9694.220.0%
Slider12%10789.620.0%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

River Ryan DET · RHPvsPIT lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gamePIT @ DET →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Nick Gonzales: every projection we've made →