MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · STL · batting 2Iván Herrera
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.304wOBA vs RHP.288xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · MILJacob Misiorowski
Throws rightBTB Stuff 134Trending Down
7.8projected K37%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Jacob Misiorowski's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 61% usage, 100.2 mph, +10.7″ arm side, +15.6″ rise. Iván Herrera: wOBA .341 vs league .321 (hitter's edge).Fastball 61%Slider: 15% usage, 93.1 mph, -3.1″ arm side, +5.5″ rise. Iván Herrera: wOBA .321 vs league .301 (hitter's edge).Slider 15%Curveball: 11% usage, 87.7 mph, -5.9″ arm side, -8.5″ rise. Iván Herrera: wOBA .290 vs league .270 (hitter's edge).Curveball 11%Cutter: 10% usage, 95.9 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Iván Herrera: wOBA .331 vs league .311 (hitter's edge).Cutter 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Iván Herrera's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Iván Herrera's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Home run: 102.1 mph at 32°Out: 58.9 mph at -23°Single: 77.7 mph at 21°Out: 104.8 mph at 34°Out: 90.6 mph at -13°Out: 92.7 mph at -19°Out: 77.3 mph at 56°Home run: 107.5 mph at 22°Home run: 111.1 mph at 25°Out: 101.2 mph at -11°Double: 94.7 mph at 25°Single: 94.9 mph at 10°Single: 70.2 mph at 21°Out: 79.3 mph at -27°Out: 88.9 mph at -21°Single: 90.1 mph at 12°Out: 103.4 mph at 19°Out: 58.1 mph at -15°Out: 103.5 mph at -16°Out: 100.6 mph at 21°Out: 103.6 mph at 4°Out: 98.1 mph at -15°Out: 99.0 mph at -20°Out: 96.7 mph at 25°Out: 92.2 mph at 21°Out: 93.3 mph at 39°Out: 77.8 mph at 42°Single: 88.3 mph at 2°Out: 94.9 mph at -9°Out: 81.4 mph at 1°Out: 105.7 mph at -5°Single: 95.4 mph at 14°Out: 92.0 mph at -40°Out: 63.3 mph at -12°Out: 71.5 mph at 5°Out: 91.4 mph at -16°Single: 79.2 mph at 16°Single: 81.0 mph at 9°Double: 95.7 mph at 17°Single: 94.7 mph at 0°
38% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.9%59.5%-4.7
2+ total bases28.9%32.5%-3.7
Home run8.8%10.5%-1.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-4.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-4.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
-2.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Iván Herrera hits
Where they meet

.296 xwOBA for Iván Herrera in the spots Jacob Misiorowski throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .309 (-13 points). His best spot against righties is middle-right, and Jacob Misiorowski puts 7% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Jacob Misiorowski · where he throws to right-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing5%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing3%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing8%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing6%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing7%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing1%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing3%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing6%15% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing15%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 39% per swing9%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing4%27% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 58% per swing27%
All · 446 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%22% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters22%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%14% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters14%
Fastball · 274 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%14% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters14%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%51% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters51%
Slider · 80 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters8%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%37% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters37%
Cutter · 65 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%12% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12%60% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters60%
Curveball · 25 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Iván Herrera · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .207 shrunk (raw .047 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 35 pitches seen.207xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .335 on 11 PA) · league .307 · 42 pitches seen.320xwOBA .214 shrunk (raw .017 on 3 PA) · league .263 · 14 pitches seen.214xwOBA .216 shrunk (raw .150 on 23 PA) · league .342 · 51 pitches seen.216xwOBA .403 shrunk (raw .414 on 18 PA) · league .386 · 69 pitches seen.403xwOBA .450 shrunk (raw .515 on 24 PA) · league .321 · 78 pitches seen.450xwOBA .216 shrunk (raw .132 on 13 PA) · league .308 · 37 pitches seen.216xwOBA .334 shrunk (raw .326 on 28 PA) · league .351 · 64 pitches seen.334xwOBA .188 shrunk (raw .115 on 17 PA) · league .292 · 56 pitches seen.188xwOBA .419 shrunk (raw .448 on 17 PA) · league .377 · 87 pitches seen.419xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .207 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 58 pitches seen.247xwOBA .227 shrunk (raw .191 on 12 PA) · league .263 · 70 pitches seen.227xwOBA .257 shrunk (raw .253 on 53 PA) · league .274 · 259 pitches seen.257
vs RHP · 920 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 16% of 19 swings · league 22%16%Whiff 21% of 28 swings · league 20%21%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 19%29%Whiff 3% of 34 swings · league 10%3%Whiff 7% of 42 swings · league 9%7%Whiff 14% of 51 swings · league 11%14%Whiff 5% of 19 swings · league 14%5%Whiff 11% of 36 swings · league 13%11%Whiff 27% of 34 swings · league 17%27%Whiff 13% of 32 swings · league 28%13%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 24%17%Whiff 32% of 28 swings · league 32%32%Whiff 42% of 92 swings · league 49%42%
vs RHP · 920 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 54% of 35 pitches · league 62%54%Swings at 67% of 42 pitches · league 72%67%Swings at 50% of 14 pitches · league 66%50%Swings at 67% of 51 pitches · league 70%67%Swings at 61% of 69 pitches · league 76%61%Swings at 65% of 78 pitches · league 70%65%Swings at 51% of 37 pitches · league 65%51%Swings at 56% of 64 pitches · league 68%56%Swings at 61% of 56 pitches · league 60%61%Swings at 37% of 87 pitches · league 24%37%Swings at 21% of 58 pitches · league 34%21%Swings at 40% of 70 pitches · league 40%40%Swings at 36% of 259 pitches · league 32%36%
vs RHP · 920 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Iván Herrera against each of Jacob Misiorowski's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball61%100.2+11″ / +16″.341.32116.1%21.2%76About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider15%93.1-3″ / +6″.321.30128.2%31.0%74About league average vs these
Curveball11%87.7-6″ / -9″.290.27034.1%37.3%64About league average vs these
Cutter10%95.9-2″ / +7″.331.31120.4%26.0%56About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Iván Herrera · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.077.143.308.193.29150.0%0.0%42.3%88.6107.533.3%33.3%16.7%
Last 15 G1548.125.250.200.262.31629.2%8.3%26.3%89.0107.57.7%42.3%30.8%
Last 30 G2995.205.295.337.326.32826.3%8.4%22.1%89.2108.56.9%44.8%34.5%
90 days75234.217.278.344.297.28024.8%5.6%20.9%89.6109.84.5%41.7%28.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 156 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 21%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G57.500.5711.500.800.66342.9%14.3%21.4%97.0111.166.7%66.7%100.0%
Last 15 G915.385.467.923.563.45926.7%6.7%15.6%94.2111.122.2%33.3%55.6%
Last 30 G2036.355.444.581.443.36122.2%11.1%18.8%91.1111.18.7%30.4%39.1%
90 days54113.260.372.396.350.34918.6%12.4%18.3%88.5111.56.7%33.3%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 75 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 24%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.211.286.684.395.41547.6%4.8%35.0%91.4111.144.4%44.4%44.4%
Last 15 G1563.189.302.377.335.35128.6%7.9%23.1%90.3111.111.4%40.0%37.1%
Last 30 G30131.246.336.404.358.33725.2%9.2%21.1%89.7111.17.4%40.7%35.8%
90 days79347.231.308.360.314.30222.8%7.8%20.0%89.2111.55.2%39.0%32.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 231 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 22%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 10%
Iván Herrera · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating51Average
Last 100 pitches99trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.314 / .316results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSinker93.2102.1321.083Home run
Sep 24RHPSinker96.158.9-23.050Out
Sep 24LHPSinker96.677.721.860Single
Sep 23RHPSlider88.3104.8341.440Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper89.090.6-13.145Out
Sep 23RHPSplitter84.392.7-19.133Double play
Sep 20RHPSinker91.477.356.054Out
Sep 20RHPFastball93.6107.5221.517Home run
Sep 20LHPFastball97.8111.1252.000Home run
Sep 19LHPSlider84.9101.2-11.198Out
Sep 19LHPCurveball84.694.725.274Double
Sep 19LHPSinker90.794.910.689Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25414103
Sep 24411002
Sep 23500010
Sep 22400004
Sep 20428201
Sep 19634001
Sep 18411001
Sep 16100010
Sep 15300001
Sep 14400010

Two strikes

Jacob Misiorowski MIL · RHPwith two strikes
Jacob Misiorowski with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball63%58%33.8%31.0%18.3%
Curveball11%19%36.4%28.8%20.7%
Slider11%16%35.9%25.5%21.4%
Cutter14%7%18.8%19.2%18.7%
Iván Herrera bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Iván Herrera with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%37.9%43.3%
Whiff%19.6%23.5%
Contact%80.4%76.5%
Chase%38.8%39.4%
wOBA.242.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes21.7%25.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.331
K%22.6%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%9.4%
Barrel%3.9%
Hard-hit%26.8%
Avg EV89.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

231 PA
wOBA.304
xwOBA vs this mix.288against pitches like his
RV/100-0.39
Hard-hit%27.7%
K%24.7%
BB%7.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob MisiorowskiRHP · MIL vs STL
7.8projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 11 · 21.3 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 5.2%5%≤34 strikeouts: 6.5%6%45 strikeouts: 10.1%10%56 strikeouts: 12.9%13%67 strikeouts: 14.2%14%78 strikeouts: 13.7%14%89+ strikeouts: 37.4%37%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%37.3%
BB%5.5%
Whiff%18.3%
Velo97.7
BTB Stuff134
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball63%142100.918.5%
Cutter14%12895.611.2%
Curveball11%10788.521.0%
Slider11%12791.224.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 158235%23%15%.274
Sep 89338%15%21%.223
Sep 29224%12%14%.433

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob Misiorowski MIL · RHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Iván Herrera: every projection we've made →