STL at MIL, Sep 27, 2026

The game

STL runs2.9win 42%

MIL runs3.7win 58%

Total6.6no pre-game book line

No run, 1st inning63%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air

Carry: – vs neutral air
Weather: 57°F · Wind in · roof retractable
Park factor: Runs 96 · HR 105 100 = average
Schedule: STL day-after-night; MIL day-after-night

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

STL starter

Andre PallanteRHP · STL vs MIL

3.7projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.3 batters over 5.4 innings

Over 3.5: 50% (red bars) · under: 50%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%13.5%

BB%8.2%

Whiff%8.3%

Velo90.6

BTB Stuff91

Location104

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%

Fastball38%8695.35.9%

Slider28%9588.013.4%

Curveball16%8779.410.0%

Sinker14%9595.63.1%

Splitter3%10990.05.9%

Last 3 startsTrending Down

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 22	89	8%	7%	28%	.270
Sep 15	99	7%	6%	30%	.444
Sep 9	88	21%	9%	37%	.269

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Andre Pallante STL · RHPvsMIL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Garrett Mitchell30%

2Brice Turang24%

3William Contreras17%

4Jake Bauers30%

5Christian Yelich24%

6Joey Ortiz20%

7Luis Lara23%

8Sal Frelick14%

9David Hamilton21%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

MIL starter

Jacob MisiorowskiRHP · MIL vs STL

7.8projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 11 · 21.3 batters over 5.0 innings

Over 7.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%37.3%

BB%5.5%

Whiff%18.3%

Velo97.7

BTB Stuff134

Location100

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%

Fastball63%142100.918.5%

Cutter14%12895.611.2%

Curveball11%10788.521.0%

Slider11%12791.224.8%

Last 3 startsTrending Down

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 15	82	35%	23%	15%	.274
Sep 8	93	38%	15%	21%	.223
Sep 2	92	24%	12%	14%	.433

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob Misiorowski MIL · RHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1JJ Wetherholt18%

2Iván Herrera25%

3Jordan Walker27%

4Leo Bernal22%

5José Fermín15%

6Thomas Saggese18%

7Masyn Winn24%

8Pedro Pagés30%

9Victor Scott II21%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces

Jacob Misiorowski MIL · RHPvsSTL lineuppitch-mix battle

Jacob Misiorowski's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Jacob Misiorowski's pitches					STL lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	63%	100.9	142	18.5%	1.25	.305	9.0%	32.8%	-1.34
Cutter	14%	95.6	128	11.2%	-0.79	.346	10.7%	28.0%	+0.30
Curveball	11%	88.5	107	21.0%	2.67	.288	12.3%	24.0%	-0.49
Slider	11%	91.2	127	24.8%	1.51	.315	15.7%	27.4%	-0.24

Andre Pallante STL · RHPvsMIL lineuppitch-mix battle

Andre Pallante's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Andre Pallante's pitches					MIL lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	38%	95.3	86	5.9%	1.72	.383	7.7%	32.8%	+0.97
Slider	28%	88.0	95	13.4%	1.32	.292	14.0%	25.4%	-1.02
Curveball	16%	79.4	87	10.0%	-1.85	.226	12.6%	14.9%	-0.56
Sinker	14%	95.6	95	3.1%	-0.63	.399	5.3%	34.0%	+0.89
Splitter	3%	90.0	109	5.9%	-1.08	.275	17.0%	26.2%	-0.05

Bullpens

Cardinals bullpen#19 of 30

K%24.1%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%12.5%

SwStr%12.2%

wOBA allowed.341

Arms available15 / 15

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Brewers bullpen#14 of 30

K%21.5%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%11.7%

SwStr%9.4%

wOBA allowed.319

Arms available18 / 18

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters

Andre Pallante STL · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Slider-0 pts

Fastball-11 pts

Curveball+9 pts

Sinker+2 pts

Splitter+0 pts

Andre Pallante with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Slider	28%	27%	25.5%	15.5%	21.4%
Fastball	38%	27%	16.0%	13.1%	18.3%
Curveball	16%	25%	33.3%	15.6%	20.7%
Sinker	14%	17%	3.2%	1.9%	17.7%
Splitter	3%	4%	20.0%	9.1%	21.3%

Jacob Misiorowski MIL · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball-5 pts

Curveball+8 pts

Slider+5 pts

Cutter-7 pts

Jacob Misiorowski with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	63%	58%	33.8%	31.0%	18.3%
Curveball	11%	19%	36.4%	28.8%	20.7%
Slider	11%	16%	35.9%	25.5%	21.4%
Cutter	14%	7%	18.8%	19.2%	18.7%

Cardinals lineup

Projected · facing Jacob Misiorowski RHP

Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.
Spot	Hitter	1+ hit	2+ TB	HR	PA	Matchup (1+ hit)	wOBA vs hand	Talent grade	Type	Form
1	JJ Wetherholt 2B · bats L	55.2%	32.0%	10.9%	4.0	-7.0	.309	C	Power	Normal
2	Iván Herrera DH · bats R	54.9%	28.9%	8.8%	3.9	-4.7	.304	C	Balanced	Normal
3	Jordan Walker RF · bats R	53.6%	30.9%	11.4%	3.8	-4.1	.325	A	Power	Normal
4	Leo Bernal C · bats S	58.5%	32.9%	11.1%	3.8	-5.4	.372	B	Power	Cold
5	José Fermín LF · bats R	56.8%	29.3%	5.3%	3.7	-2.8	.293	B	Contact	Normal
6	Thomas Saggese 3B · bats R	54.8%	29.3%	8.3%	3.6	-4.0	.329	C	Balanced	Normal
7	Masyn Winn SS · bats R	48.8%	23.3%	4.9%	3.5	-3.6	.275	D	Balanced	Cold
8	Pedro Pagés C · bats R	43.9%	20.5%	5.6%	3.4	-4.9	.263	F	Balanced	Normal
9	Victor Scott II LF · bats L	45.4%	21.0%	4.8%	3.3	-3.9	.297	F	Balanced	Normal

Brewers lineup

Projected · facing Andre Pallante RHP