MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · STL · batting 1JJ Wetherholt
Bats leftTalent grade CPowerNormal
.309wOBA vs RHP.348xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · MILJacob Misiorowski
Throws rightBTB Stuff 134Trending Down
7.8projected K37%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Jacob Misiorowski's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 61% usage, 100.2 mph, +10.7″ arm side, +15.6″ rise. JJ Wetherholt: wOBA .320 vs league .319 (about even).Fastball 61%Slider: 15% usage, 93.1 mph, -3.1″ arm side, +5.5″ rise. JJ Wetherholt: wOBA .335 vs league .334 (about even).Slider 15%Curveball: 11% usage, 87.7 mph, -5.9″ arm side, -8.5″ rise. JJ Wetherholt: wOBA .286 vs league .285 (about even).Curveball 11%Cutter: 10% usage, 95.9 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. JJ Wetherholt: wOBA .335 vs league .334 (about even).Cutter 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is JJ Wetherholt's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

JJ Wetherholt's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 97.9 mph at 46°Out: 78.6 mph at 6°Out: 98.3 mph at 16°Out: 73.8 mph at -3°Out: 95.5 mph at -10°Double: 98.5 mph at 25°Single: 51.5 mph at -53°Out: 102.8 mph at 32°Single: 97.0 mph at 0°Single: 86.0 mph at 20°Single: 101.3 mph at 6°Out: 95.8 mph at 33°Out: 85.0 mph at 5°Single: 89.5 mph at 20°Out: 75.2 mph at -36°Out: 52.6 mph at -40°Single: 100.7 mph at 9°Single: 88.3 mph at 7°Out: 99.1 mph at 36°Out: 74.7 mph at 46°Out: 96.1 mph at 30°Out: 88.3 mph at -20°Out: 69.7 mph at 50°Out: 87.7 mph at -12°Out: 85.9 mph at -16°Out: 60.7 mph at -51°Out: 81.1 mph at 6°Out: 104.5 mph at 22°Out: 97.6 mph at 25°Out: 98.8 mph at -10°Single: 99.7 mph at 15°Single: 101.5 mph at 8°Out: 89.4 mph at 0°Single: 102.0 mph at 11°Out: 78.9 mph at 14°Single: 75.4 mph at -44°Out: 98.2 mph at 24°Single: 103.5 mph at 10°Out: 98.4 mph at 6°Home run: 103.8 mph at 29°
53% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.2%62.2%-7.0
2+ total bases32.0%37.5%-5.6
Home run10.9%12.8%-1.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-6.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-5.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-2.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where JJ Wetherholt hits
Where they meet

.350 xwOBA for JJ Wetherholt in the spots Jacob Misiorowski throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .318 (+31 points). His best spot against righties is up-left, and Jacob Misiorowski puts 8% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Jacob Misiorowski · where he throws to left-handed hitters
8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 46% per swing8%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing4%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing6%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing6%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing3%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing4%23% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 63% per swing23%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing5%18% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 73% per swing18%
All · 658 pitches · catcher's view
10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%31% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters31%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%
Fastball · 423 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%9% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters9%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%15% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters15%41% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters41%
Curveball · 96 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%13% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters13%10% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters10%1% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters1%3% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters7%10% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters10%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%33% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters33%
Cutter · 95 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%49% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters49%
Slider · 43 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

JJ Wetherholt · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .378 shrunk (raw .626 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 20 pitches seen.378xwOBA .345 shrunk (raw .402 on 8 PA) · league .307 · 27 pitches seen.345xwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .437 on 3 PA) · league .263 · 14 pitches seen.298xwOBA .304 shrunk (raw .271 on 14 PA) · league .342 · 45 pitches seen.304xwOBA .395 shrunk (raw .401 on 20 PA) · league .386 · 54 pitches seen.395xwOBA .371 shrunk (raw .458 on 7 PA) · league .321 · 29 pitches seen.371xwOBA .275 shrunk (raw .230 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 35 pitches seen.275xwOBA .347 shrunk (raw .344 on 21 PA) · league .351 · 49 pitches seen.347xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .293 on 16 PA) · league .292 · 40 pitches seen.293xwOBA .408 shrunk (raw .438 on 12 PA) · league .377 · 102 pitches seen.408xwOBA .362 shrunk (raw .539 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 30 pitches seen.362xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .249 on 19 PA) · league .263 · 91 pitches seen.254xwOBA .317 shrunk (raw .338 on 24 PA) · league .274 · 138 pitches seen.317
vs RHP · 674 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 9 swings · league 22%33%Whiff 19% of 16 swings · league 20%19%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 19%20%Whiff 7% of 30 swings · league 10%7%Whiff 3% of 40 swings · league 9%3%Whiff 0% of 14 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 16% of 19 swings · league 14%16%Whiff 3% of 31 swings · league 13%3%Whiff 28% of 18 swings · league 17%28%Whiff 73% of 11 swings · league 28%73%Whiff 13% of 8 swings · league 24%13%Whiff 21% of 29 swings · league 32%21%Whiff 56% of 23 swings · league 49%56%
vs RHP · 674 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 45% of 20 pitches · league 62%45%Swings at 59% of 27 pitches · league 72%59%Swings at 36% of 14 pitches · league 66%36%Swings at 67% of 45 pitches · league 70%67%Swings at 74% of 54 pitches · league 76%74%Swings at 48% of 29 pitches · league 70%48%Swings at 54% of 35 pitches · league 65%54%Swings at 63% of 49 pitches · league 68%63%Swings at 45% of 40 pitches · league 60%45%Swings at 11% of 102 pitches · league 24%11%Swings at 27% of 30 pitches · league 34%27%Swings at 32% of 91 pitches · league 40%32%Swings at 17% of 138 pitches · league 32%17%
vs RHP · 674 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

JJ Wetherholt against each of Jacob Misiorowski's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball61%100.2+11″ / +16″.320.31926.7%26.5%36About league average vs these
Slider15%93.1-3″ / +6″.335.33419.8%25.1%33About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball11%87.7-6″ / -9″.286.28530.2%37.3%18About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter10%95.9-2″ / +7″.335.33421.8%21.6%21About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
JJ Wetherholt · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.308.357.385.332.35121.4%7.1%15.4%91.4102.810.0%60.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1537.257.297.286.266.34427.0%5.4%23.1%92.1104.58.0%60.0%40.0%
Last 30 G2983.254.361.310.313.36821.7%12.0%18.7%92.5105.57.5%58.5%37.7%
90 days56164.226.354.285.314.35417.1%13.4%18.6%90.3105.54.6%46.8%31.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 109 balls in play
Ground 59%Line drive 17%Fly ball 21%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G57.286.286.286.257.26914.3%0.0%12.5%77.598.30.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1121.238.238.381.267.37623.8%0.0%11.4%85.2103.812.5%43.8%43.8%
Last 30 G2344.190.227.286.249.33718.2%4.5%11.0%86.6104.68.8%38.2%44.1%
90 days49105.214.267.357.304.34519.0%6.7%14.0%87.9105.210.3%43.6%42.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 78 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 19%Fly ball 35%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.300.333.350.307.32319.0%4.8%14.7%86.2102.86.2%50.0%31.2%
Last 15 G1558.250.276.321.266.35525.9%3.4%19.0%89.4104.59.8%53.7%41.5%
Last 30 G30127.230.315.301.291.35720.5%9.4%15.9%90.2105.58.0%50.6%40.2%
90 days62269.221.320.315.310.35017.8%10.8%16.7%89.3105.57.0%45.5%35.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 187 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 18%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 3%
JJ Wetherholt · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating89Excellent
Last 100 pitches81trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.302 / .365running 63 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit7/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPFastball92.097.946.041Out
Sep 25LHPSweeper77.178.66.283Out
Sep 25LHPSinker93.498.316.628Out
Sep 25RHPSinker98.073.8-3.092Force out
Sep 24RHPSplitter92.395.5-10.181Double play
Sep 24RHPSweeper84.298.525.578Double
Sep 24LHPSinker96.251.5-53.240Single
Sep 24RHPFastball95.8102.8321.233Out
Sep 23RHPFastball96.897.00.374Single
Sep 23LHPSlider83.886.020.528Single
Sep 23RHPFastball89.9101.36.562Single
Sep 22RHPSlider88.195.833.285Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400000
Sep 24423000
Sep 23533011
Sep 22400003
Sep 20411000
Sep 19111000
Sep 18411002
Sep 16300001
Aug 29400000
Aug 28400002

Two strikes

Jacob Misiorowski MIL · RHPwith two strikes
Jacob Misiorowski with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball63%58%33.8%31.0%18.3%
Curveball11%19%36.4%28.8%20.7%
Slider11%16%35.9%25.5%21.4%
Cutter14%7%18.8%19.2%18.7%
JJ Wetherholt bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
JJ Wetherholt with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%34.8%41.3%
Whiff%18.0%21.6%
Contact%82.0%78.4%
Chase%32.7%39.4%
wOBA.260.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.7%29.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCPower type
wOBA.311
K%18.2%
BB%10.3%
Whiff%7.1%
Barrel%4.9%
Hard-hit%30.5%
Avg EV89.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

161 PA
wOBA.309
xwOBA vs this mix.348against pitches like his
RV/100-0.19
Hard-hit%30.1%
K%17.5%
BB%10.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob MisiorowskiRHP · MIL vs STL
7.8projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 11 · 21.3 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 5.2%5%≤34 strikeouts: 6.5%6%45 strikeouts: 10.1%10%56 strikeouts: 12.9%13%67 strikeouts: 14.2%14%78 strikeouts: 13.7%14%89+ strikeouts: 37.4%37%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%37.3%
BB%5.5%
Whiff%18.3%
Velo97.7
BTB Stuff134
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball63%142100.918.5%
Cutter14%12895.611.2%
Curveball11%10788.521.0%
Slider11%12791.224.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 158235%23%15%.274
Sep 89338%15%21%.223
Sep 29224%12%14%.433

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob Misiorowski MIL · RHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.JJ Wetherholt: every projection we've made →