MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · STL · batting 3Jordan Walker
Bats rightTalent grade APowerNormal
.325wOBA vs RHP.305xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · MILJacob Misiorowski
Throws rightBTB Stuff 134Trending Down
7.8projected K37%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Jacob Misiorowski's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 61% usage, 100.2 mph, +10.7″ arm side, +15.6″ rise. Jordan Walker: wOBA .323 vs league .321 (about even).Fastball 61%Slider: 15% usage, 93.1 mph, -3.1″ arm side, +5.5″ rise. Jordan Walker: wOBA .305 vs league .301 (about even).Slider 15%Curveball: 11% usage, 87.7 mph, -5.9″ arm side, -8.5″ rise. Jordan Walker: wOBA .274 vs league .270 (about even).Curveball 11%Cutter: 10% usage, 95.9 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Jordan Walker: wOBA .314 vs league .311 (about even).Cutter 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jordan Walker's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jordan Walker's last 40 balls in playHit (8)Out (32)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 110.2 mph at -27°Home run: 105.9 mph at 24°Out: 104.7 mph at -25°Single: 77.8 mph at 33°Out: 99.5 mph at 2°Out: 81.4 mph at 77°Out: 106.6 mph at 40°Out: 71.6 mph at 58°Out: 70.4 mph at -38°Out: 110.0 mph at -4°Out: 95.2 mph at -30°Out: 112.1 mph at 17°Out: 106.0 mph at -18°Out: 98.5 mph at -41°Single: 117.2 mph at -1°Out: 105.8 mph at 21°Out: 95.7 mph at -6°Out: 111.0 mph at 14°Single: 85.2 mph at 12°Out: 91.4 mph at 35°Out: 92.3 mph at -23°Out: 96.7 mph at -17°Single: 106.9 mph at 7°Out: 88.2 mph at 34°Double: 115.4 mph at 6°Out: 95.4 mph at -11°Out: 83.5 mph at -4°Out: 83.7 mph at -25°Out: 87.0 mph at 42°Out: 98.7 mph at -21°Single: 101.8 mph at -14°Out: 108.1 mph at -5°Out: 69.9 mph at 75°Out: 61.5 mph at -31°Out: 103.0 mph at -14°Out: 43.4 mph at -51°Out: 85.6 mph at 45°Out: 83.5 mph at 4°Single: 100.7 mph at -10°Out: 107.4 mph at -5°
60% hit 95+ mph13% in the sweet spot20% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit53.6%57.7%-4.1
2+ total bases30.9%33.5%-2.6
Home run11.4%12.0%-0.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-4.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-3.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jordan Walker hits
Where they meet

.294 xwOBA for Jordan Walker in the spots Jacob Misiorowski throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .309 (-15 points). His best spot against righties is middle-left, and Jacob Misiorowski puts 6% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Jacob Misiorowski · where he throws to right-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing5%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing3%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing8%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing6%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing7%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing1%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing3%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing6%15% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing15%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 39% per swing9%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing4%27% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 58% per swing27%
All · 446 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%22% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters22%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%14% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters14%
Fastball · 274 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%14% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters14%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%51% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters51%
Slider · 80 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters8%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%37% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters37%
Cutter · 65 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%12% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12%60% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters60%
Curveball · 25 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Jordan Walker · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .335 shrunk (raw .383 on 15 PA) · league .274 · 35 pitches seen.335xwOBA .424 shrunk (raw .552 on 11 PA) · league .307 · 33 pitches seen.424xwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .328 on 14 PA) · league .263 · 38 pitches seen.298xwOBA .476 shrunk (raw .637 on 10 PA) · league .342 · 28 pitches seen.476xwOBA .520 shrunk (raw .600 on 20 PA) · league .386 · 52 pitches seen.520xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .201 on 28 PA) · league .321 · 50 pitches seen.237xwOBA .269 shrunk (raw .191 on 6 PA) · league .308 · 23 pitches seen.269xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw .277 on 17 PA) · league .351 · 34 pitches seen.308xwOBA .256 shrunk (raw .232 on 18 PA) · league .292 · 46 pitches seen.256xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .221 on 26 PA) · league .377 · 92 pitches seen.270xwOBA .155 shrunk (raw .046 on 13 PA) · league .274 · 61 pitches seen.155xwOBA .231 shrunk (raw .193 on 10 PA) · league .263 · 66 pitches seen.231xwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .254 on 42 PA) · league .274 · 236 pitches seen.258
vs RHP · 794 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 9% of 34 swings · league 22%9%Whiff 25% of 28 swings · league 20%25%Whiff 12% of 26 swings · league 19%12%Whiff 4% of 24 swings · league 10%4%Whiff 21% of 38 swings · league 9%21%Whiff 14% of 36 swings · league 11%14%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 14%17%Whiff 28% of 25 swings · league 13%28%Whiff 22% of 23 swings · league 17%22%Whiff 29% of 56 swings · league 28%29%Whiff 26% of 23 swings · league 24%26%Whiff 56% of 34 swings · league 32%56%Whiff 76% of 76 swings · league 49%76%
vs RHP · 794 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 97% of 35 pitches · league 62%97%Swings at 85% of 33 pitches · league 72%85%Swings at 68% of 38 pitches · league 66%68%Swings at 86% of 28 pitches · league 70%86%Swings at 73% of 52 pitches · league 76%73%Swings at 72% of 50 pitches · league 70%72%Swings at 52% of 23 pitches · league 65%52%Swings at 74% of 34 pitches · league 68%74%Swings at 50% of 46 pitches · league 60%50%Swings at 61% of 92 pitches · league 24%61%Swings at 38% of 61 pitches · league 34%38%Swings at 52% of 66 pitches · league 40%52%Swings at 32% of 236 pitches · league 32%32%
vs RHP · 794 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jordan Walker against each of Jacob Misiorowski's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball61%100.2+11″ / +16″.323.32126.0%21.2%117About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider15%93.1-3″ / +6″.305.30138.1%31.0%99About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball11%87.7-6″ / -9″.274.27045.3%37.3%77About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter10%95.9-2″ / +7″.314.31131.2%26.0%63About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jordan Walker · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.143.250.357.269.35125.0%12.5%36.7%93.8110.220.0%60.0%10.0%
Last 15 G1442.132.214.237.208.29228.6%9.5%33.8%96.2117.215.4%61.5%15.4%
Last 30 G2893.176.237.294.254.26832.3%7.5%36.2%93.5117.212.5%58.9%17.9%
90 days73230.254.300.423.324.30227.0%5.7%32.2%91.2117.212.4%47.7%27.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 153 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 16%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.000.000.000.000.02666.7%0.0%62.5%95.295.20.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 15 G711.100.182.100.145.21854.5%9.1%50.0%100.6112.125.0%75.0%25.0%
Last 30 G1326.240.269.280.248.26946.2%3.8%41.2%93.7112.17.7%61.5%38.5%
90 days4391.244.352.423.363.37525.3%14.3%29.5%92.8115.010.9%52.7%43.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 55 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 27%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.118.211.294.226.30031.6%10.5%42.1%93.9110.218.2%63.6%9.1%
Last 15 G1553.125.208.208.195.27734.0%9.4%37.5%96.8117.216.7%63.3%16.7%
Last 30 G30119.191.244.291.253.26835.3%6.7%37.3%93.6117.211.6%59.4%21.7%
90 days77321.251.315.423.335.32226.5%8.1%31.4%91.6117.212.0%49.0%31.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 208 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 19%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 10%
Jordan Walker · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating65Above average
Last 100 pitches16trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.335 / .330results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker100.5110.2-27.113Out
Sep 25RHPCutter87.4105.9241.727Home run
Sep 24RHPFastball97.4104.7-25.157Out
Sep 23RHPFastball94.677.833.085Single
Sep 23RHPFastball94.999.52.432Out
Sep 23RHPSlider82.681.477.005Out
Sep 22RHPFastball96.7106.6401.150Out
Sep 22RHPFastball95.471.658.023Out
Sep 22RHPSlider91.370.4-38.111Out
Sep 20RHPFastball93.6110.0-4.423Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup80.395.2-30.077Out
Sep 19LHPCurveball84.4112.1171.013Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25414102
Sep 24400012
Sep 23411001
Sep 22300000
Sep 20400011
Sep 19600004
Sep 18311001
Sep 16500022
Sep 15300001
Sep 14411011

Two strikes

Jacob Misiorowski MIL · RHPwith two strikes
Jacob Misiorowski with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball63%58%33.8%31.0%18.3%
Curveball11%19%36.4%28.8%20.7%
Slider11%16%35.9%25.5%21.4%
Cutter14%7%18.8%19.2%18.7%
Jordan Walker bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jordan Walker with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%53.1%43.3%
Whiff%30.1%23.5%
Contact%69.9%76.5%
Chase%36.5%39.4%
wOBA.224.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes32.4%25.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.319
K%26.8%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%15.5%
Barrel%7.4%
Hard-hit%31.3%
Avg EV91.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

230 PA
wOBA.325
xwOBA vs this mix.305against pitches like his
RV/100-0.13
Hard-hit%31.2%
K%26.5%
BB%8.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob MisiorowskiRHP · MIL vs STL
7.8projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 11 · 21.3 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 5.2%5%≤34 strikeouts: 6.5%6%45 strikeouts: 10.1%10%56 strikeouts: 12.9%13%67 strikeouts: 14.2%14%78 strikeouts: 13.7%14%89+ strikeouts: 37.4%37%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%37.3%
BB%5.5%
Whiff%18.3%
Velo97.7
BTB Stuff134
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball63%142100.918.5%
Cutter14%12895.611.2%
Curveball11%10788.521.0%
Slider11%12791.224.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 158235%23%15%.274
Sep 89338%15%21%.223
Sep 29224%12%14%.433

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob Misiorowski MIL · RHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jordan Walker: every projection we've made →