MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · STL · batting 4Leo Bernal
Switch hitterTalent grade BPowerCold
.372wOBA vs RHP.341xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · MILJacob Misiorowski
Throws rightBTB Stuff 134Trending Down
7.8projected K37%K%2.1trips vs this hitter
Jacob Misiorowski's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 61% usage, 100.2 mph, +10.7″ arm side, +15.6″ rise. Leo Bernal: wOBA .328 vs league .319 (about even).Fastball 61%Slider: 15% usage, 93.1 mph, -3.1″ arm side, +5.5″ rise. Leo Bernal: wOBA .343 vs league .334 (about even).Slider 15%Curveball: 11% usage, 87.7 mph, -5.9″ arm side, -8.5″ rise. Leo Bernal: wOBA .294 vs league .285 (about even).Curveball 11%Cutter: 10% usage, 95.9 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Leo Bernal: wOBA .344 vs league .334 (about even).Cutter 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Leo Bernal's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Leo Bernal's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 104.4 mph at 16°Out: 66.6 mph at -6°Single: 94.9 mph at 8°Single: 96.8 mph at 7°Out: 87.4 mph at 31°Out: 61.8 mph at 75°Out: 67.7 mph at -41°Single: 84.1 mph at 8°Out: 91.3 mph at 44°Out: 90.0 mph at 7°Home run: 108.5 mph at 26°Single: 85.8 mph at -4°Out: 97.1 mph at -11°Out: 80.4 mph at 43°Out: 78.7 mph at 47°Single: 77.3 mph at 16°Single: 96.4 mph at 1°Single: 75.3 mph at 25°Out: 103.1 mph at 40°Single: 103.0 mph at 17°Out: 96.3 mph at 4°Out: 84.5 mph at -5°Out: 92.5 mph at 0°Out: 82.7 mph at 42°Out: 103.0 mph at -32°Out: 100.0 mph at 28°Double: 107.5 mph at 17°Single: 104.0 mph at 13°Single: 79.6 mph at 21°Out: 98.5 mph at 34°Out: 84.6 mph at 43°Home run: 106.2 mph at 23°Out: 97.6 mph at -14°Out: 98.1 mph at 21°Out: 78.4 mph at 9°Single: 102.3 mph at 8°Double: 102.6 mph at 16°Single: 95.7 mph at 11°Home run: 105.7 mph at 24°Out: 88.7 mph at 27°
50% hit 95+ mph50% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit58.5%63.9%-5.4
2+ total bases32.9%37.4%-4.5
Home run11.1%13.1%-2.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-5.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-4.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
-2.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Leo Bernal hits
Where they meet

.338 xwOBA for Leo Bernal in the spots Jacob Misiorowski throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .318 (+19 points). His best spot against righties is up-middle, and Jacob Misiorowski puts 6% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Jacob Misiorowski · where he throws to left-handed hitters
8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 46% per swing8%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing4%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing6%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing7%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing6%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing3%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing4%23% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 63% per swing23%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing5%18% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 73% per swing18%
All · 658 pitches · catcher's view
10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%8% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters8%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%31% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters31%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%
Fastball · 423 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%12% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters12%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%9% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters9%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%15% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters15%41% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters41%
Curveball · 96 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%13% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters13%10% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters10%1% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters1%3% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters7%10% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters10%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%33% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters33%
Cutter · 95 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%49% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters49%
Slider · 43 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Leo Bernal · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .146 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 8 pitches seen.242xwOBA .395 shrunk (raw .571 on 6 PA) · league .307 · 17 pitches seen.395xwOBA .215 shrunk (raw .070 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 4 pitches seen.215xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .219 on 8 PA) · league .342 · 23 pitches seen.293xwOBA .450 shrunk (raw .561 on 7 PA) · league .386 · 14 pitches seen.450xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .344 on 3 PA) · league .321 · 5 pitches seen.326xwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .191 on 11 PA) · league .308 · 21 pitches seen.252xwOBA .361 shrunk (raw .392 on 4 PA) · league .351 · 17 pitches seen.361xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .242 on 2 PA) · league .292 · 14 pitches seen.285xwOBA .397 shrunk (raw .445 on 5 PA) · league .377 · 38 pitches seen.397xwOBA .334 shrunk (raw .576 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 12 pitches seen.334xwOBA .317 shrunk (raw .399 on 8 PA) · league .263 · 49 pitches seen.317xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .465 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 36 pitches seen.312
vs RHP · 258 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 40% of 5 swings · league 22%40%Whiff 8% of 13 swings · league 20%8%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 6% of 17 swings · league 10%6%Whiff 0% of 10 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 11 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 13%22%Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 17%25%Whiff 25% of 12 swings · league 28%25%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 24%29%Whiff 31% of 13 swings · league 32%31%Whiff 64% of 11 swings · league 49%64%
vs RHP · 258 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 63% of 8 pitches · league 62%63%Swings at 77% of 17 pitches · league 72%77%Swings at 50% of 4 pitches · league 66%50%Swings at 74% of 23 pitches · league 70%74%Swings at 71% of 14 pitches · league 76%71%Swings at 80% of 5 pitches · league 70%80%Swings at 52% of 21 pitches · league 65%52%Swings at 53% of 17 pitches · league 68%53%Swings at 57% of 14 pitches · league 60%57%Swings at 32% of 38 pitches · league 24%32%Swings at 58% of 12 pitches · league 34%58%Swings at 27% of 49 pitches · league 40%27%Swings at 31% of 36 pitches · league 32%31%
vs RHP · 258 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Leo Bernal against each of Jacob Misiorowski's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball61%100.2+11″ / +16″.328.31922.5%26.5%11About league average vs these
Slider15%93.1-3″ / +6″.343.33423.3%25.1%10About league average vs these
Curveball11%87.7-6″ / -9″.294.28535.0%37.3%3Little history vs this shape
Cutter10%95.9-2″ / +7″.344.33418.1%21.6%11About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Leo Bernal · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.267.267.467.373.27240.0%0.0%19.5%86.9108.511.1%22.2%44.4%
Last 15 G1544.302.318.535.401.37225.0%2.3%20.2%91.1108.515.6%46.9%43.8%
Last 30 G2268.297.338.516.391.34922.1%5.9%19.7%91.8109.810.2%51.0%38.8%
90 days2268.297.338.516.391.34922.1%5.9%19.7%91.8109.810.2%51.0%38.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 49 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 18%Fly ball 37%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.000.250.000.175.33625.0%25.0%33.3%85.5104.40.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G918.235.278.294.258.27027.8%5.6%23.5%91.2104.40.0%58.3%50.0%
Last 30 G1226.280.308.320.283.33126.9%3.8%21.3%94.8107.60.0%72.2%55.6%
90 days1226.280.308.320.283.33126.9%3.8%21.3%94.8107.60.0%72.2%55.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 18 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 39%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.222.263.389.332.28536.8%5.3%21.3%86.7108.59.1%27.3%45.5%
Last 15 G1562.283.306.467.360.34225.8%3.2%21.1%91.1108.511.4%50.0%45.5%
Last 30 G2294.292.330.461.361.34423.4%5.3%20.1%92.6109.87.5%56.7%43.3%
90 days2294.292.330.461.361.34423.4%5.3%20.1%92.6109.87.5%56.7%43.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 67 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 24%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 3%
Leo Bernal · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating89Excellent
Last 100 pitches10trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.356 / .365results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSinker93.0104.416.591Out
Sep 25LHPSinker91.266.6-6.056Out
Sep 25RHPCutter88.894.98.576Single
Sep 25RHPFastball97.196.87.564Single
Sep 24RHPSlider87.987.431.016Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup85.461.875.006Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup88.667.7-41.116Out
Sep 23RHPCutter92.284.18.410Single
Sep 22RHPFastball98.191.344.008Out
Sep 20RHPCurveball76.290.07.422Error
Sep 20RHPSlider92.1108.5261.956Home run
Sep 19LHPFastball93.385.8-4.126Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25422000
Sep 24400003
Sep 23411001
Sep 22300002
Sep 20414111
Sep 19611002
Sep 18433001
Sep 16511002
Sep 15400000
Sep 14434000

Two strikes

Jacob Misiorowski MIL · RHPwith two strikes
Jacob Misiorowski with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball63%58%33.8%31.0%18.3%
Curveball11%19%36.4%28.8%20.7%
Slider11%16%35.9%25.5%21.4%
Cutter14%7%18.8%19.2%18.7%
Leo Bernal bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Leo Bernal with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%41.9%41.3%
Whiff%18.0%21.6%
Contact%82.0%78.4%
Chase%35.9%39.4%
wOBA.266.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.6%29.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.328
K%23.2%
BB%7.1%
Whiff%10.2%
Barrel%5.1%
Hard-hit%31.1%
Avg EV90.1

Against right-handers, last 90 days

68 PA
wOBA.372
xwOBA vs this mix.341against pitches like his
RV/1001.31
Hard-hit%34.9%
K%22.4%
BB%6.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob MisiorowskiRHP · MIL vs STL
7.8projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 11 · 21.3 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 5.2%5%≤34 strikeouts: 6.5%6%45 strikeouts: 10.1%10%56 strikeouts: 12.9%13%67 strikeouts: 14.2%14%78 strikeouts: 13.7%14%89+ strikeouts: 37.4%37%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%37.3%
BB%5.5%
Whiff%18.3%
Velo97.7
BTB Stuff134
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball63%142100.918.5%
Cutter14%12895.611.2%
Curveball11%10788.521.0%
Slider11%12791.224.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 158235%23%15%.274
Sep 89338%15%21%.223
Sep 29224%12%14%.433

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob Misiorowski MIL · RHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Leo Bernal: every projection we've made →