MLBengine v14
← STL at MIL, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · American Family Field · lineup projected
Hitter · STL · batting 6Thomas Saggese
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedNormal
.329wOBA vs RHP.341xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · MILJacob Misiorowski
Throws rightBTB Stuff 134Trending Down
7.8projected K37%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Jacob Misiorowski's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 61% usage, 100.2 mph, +10.7″ arm side, +15.6″ rise. Thomas Saggese: wOBA .301 vs league .321 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 61%Slider: 15% usage, 93.1 mph, -3.1″ arm side, +5.5″ rise. Thomas Saggese: wOBA .282 vs league .301 (pitcher's edge).Slider 15%Curveball: 11% usage, 87.7 mph, -5.9″ arm side, -8.5″ rise. Thomas Saggese: wOBA .251 vs league .270 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 11%Cutter: 10% usage, 95.9 mph, -1.6″ arm side, +7.2″ rise. Thomas Saggese: wOBA .291 vs league .311 (pitcher's edge).Cutter 10%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Thomas Saggese's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Thomas Saggese's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 96.1 mph at -9°Out: 100.8 mph at 22°Out: 90.6 mph at 30°Out: 85.1 mph at 19°Out: 101.9 mph at 25°Out: 103.8 mph at -11°Out: 84.7 mph at 29°Out: 59.0 mph at -65°Out: 92.7 mph at 33°Out: 92.4 mph at 43°Out: 96.8 mph at -15°Out: 100.0 mph at 25°Out: 100.3 mph at -12°Single: 57.0 mph at -84°Single: 101.7 mph at 12°Out: 106.5 mph at 19°Out: 89.6 mph at 47°Out: 96.4 mph at -4°Single: 111.0 mph at 1°Out: 100.6 mph at 39°Out: 73.9 mph at 11°Single: 96.5 mph at -4°Out: 107.1 mph at -25°Out: 96.2 mph at 28°Out: 100.6 mph at 10°Out: 94.9 mph at 27°Single: 73.2 mph at 26°Out: 90.4 mph at 26°Out: 90.6 mph at 40°Single: 92.7 mph at 16°Out: 79.4 mph at 3°Out: 92.4 mph at 4°Out: 103.1 mph at 4°Out: 92.2 mph at -24°Single: 109.4 mph at 5°Out: 105.9 mph at 4°Single: 95.5 mph at 10°Out: 90.0 mph at 29°Single: 101.0 mph at -4°Out: 91.5 mph at 35°
53% hit 95+ mph43% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.8%58.8%-4.0
2+ total bases29.3%32.3%-3.0
Home run8.3%9.3%-1.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-4.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-3.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
+0.0
Home run
Starter
-1.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Thomas Saggese hits
Where they meet

.311 xwOBA for Thomas Saggese in the spots Jacob Misiorowski throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .309 (+2 points). His best spot against righties is down-right, and Jacob Misiorowski puts 6% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Jacob Misiorowski · where he throws to right-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing5%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing3%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 36% per swing8%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing6%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing7%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing7%1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing1%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing3%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing6%15% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing15%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 39% per swing9%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing4%27% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 58% per swing27%
All · 446 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%22% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters22%12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%14% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters14%
Fastball · 274 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters1%9% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters6%14% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters14%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters5%51% of his Slider pitches to right-handed hitters51%
Slider · 80 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%8% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters8%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%37% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters37%
Cutter · 65 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%12% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters12%60% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters60%
Curveball · 25 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Thomas Saggese · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw .013 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 11 pitches seen.254xwOBA .289 shrunk (raw .184 on 2 PA) · league .307 · 11 pitches seen.289xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 5 pitches seen.243xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .417 on 7 PA) · league .342 · 15 pitches seen.370xwOBA .383 shrunk (raw .373 on 4 PA) · league .386 · 20 pitches seen.383xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw .247 on 5 PA) · league .321 · 19 pitches seen.299xwOBA .368 shrunk (raw .729 on 2 PA) · league .308 · 9 pitches seen.368xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw .348 on 10 PA) · league .351 · 20 pitches seen.350xwOBA .383 shrunk (raw .655 on 4 PA) · league .292 · 17 pitches seen.383xwOBA .401 shrunk (raw .495 on 3 PA) · league .377 · 28 pitches seen.401xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .268 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 23 pitches seen.272xwOBA .342 shrunk (raw .580 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 14 pitches seen.342xwOBA .250 shrunk (raw .231 on 15 PA) · league .274 · 71 pitches seen.250
vs RHP · 263 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 22%11%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 20%14%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 10%9%Whiff 0% of 15 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 11%18%Whiff 14% of 7 swings · league 14%14%Whiff 7% of 15 swings · league 13%7%Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 17%38%Whiff 50% of 4 swings · league 28%50%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 24%29%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 32%9%Whiff 26% of 23 swings · league 49%26%
vs RHP · 263 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 82% of 11 pitches · league 62%82%Swings at 64% of 11 pitches · league 72%64%Swings at 100% of 5 pitches · league 66%100%Swings at 73% of 15 pitches · league 70%73%Swings at 75% of 20 pitches · league 76%75%Swings at 58% of 19 pitches · league 70%58%Swings at 78% of 9 pitches · league 65%78%Swings at 75% of 20 pitches · league 68%75%Swings at 47% of 17 pitches · league 60%47%Swings at 14% of 28 pitches · league 24%14%Swings at 30% of 23 pitches · league 34%30%Swings at 79% of 14 pitches · league 40%79%Swings at 32% of 71 pitches · league 32%32%
vs RHP · 263 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Thomas Saggese against each of Jacob Misiorowski's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball61%100.2+11″ / +16″.301.32121.7%21.2%56About league average vs these
Slider15%93.1-3″ / +6″.282.30127.1%31.0%21About league average vs these
Curveball11%87.7-6″ / -9″.251.27032.6%37.3%27About league average vs these
Cutter10%95.9-2″ / +7″.291.31126.5%26.0%17About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Thomas Saggese · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.000.154.000.108.29530.8%7.7%25.9%88.6103.80.0%42.9%57.1%
Last 15 G1546.167.217.167.202.32117.4%2.2%15.2%93.4111.05.7%54.3%40.0%
Last 30 G2166.288.333.390.331.34815.2%4.5%15.8%92.1111.05.9%47.1%41.2%
90 days2166.288.333.390.331.34815.2%4.5%15.8%92.1111.05.9%47.1%41.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 51 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 28%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.000.143.000.100.26371.4%14.3%35.7%101.9101.9100.0%100.0%100.0%
Last 15 G915.154.267.154.213.28553.3%13.3%37.5%94.8109.420.0%40.0%60.0%
Last 30 G1325.250.360.550.380.34844.0%16.0%32.6%92.6109.430.0%50.0%40.0%
90 days1325.250.360.550.380.34844.0%16.0%32.6%92.6109.430.0%50.0%40.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 10 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 10%Fly ball 50%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.000.150.000.105.28445.0%10.0%29.3%90.2103.812.5%50.0%62.5%
Last 15 G1561.164.230.164.205.31326.2%4.9%19.8%93.6111.07.5%52.5%42.5%
Last 30 G2391.278.341.430.345.34823.1%7.7%19.9%92.2111.09.8%47.5%41.0%
90 days2391.278.341.430.345.34823.1%7.7%19.9%92.2111.09.8%47.5%41.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 61 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 25%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 3%
Thomas Saggese · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating91Top tier
Last 100 pitches32trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.346 / .367running 20 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker92.996.1-9.246Out
Sep 25RHPFastball98.3100.822.675Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper85.690.630.061Out
Sep 22RHPFastball97.085.119.829Out
Sep 20LHPChangeup78.7101.9251.144Out
Sep 20RHPSinker100.5103.8-11.253Out
Sep 19RHPSweeper83.584.729.088Out
Sep 19RHPCutter88.759.0-65.256Out
Sep 18RHPFastball95.492.733.149Out
Sep 18RHPSlider88.592.443.007Out
Sep 16RHPFastball96.896.8-15.200Out
Sep 16RHPSinker94.5100.025.733Sac fly
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400002
Sep 24400002
Sep 22300011
Sep 20400002
Sep 19500012
Sep 18400001
Sep 16511001
Sep 15411000
Sep 14422000
Sep 13300001

Two strikes

Jacob Misiorowski MIL · RHPwith two strikes
Jacob Misiorowski with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball63%58%33.8%31.0%18.3%
Curveball11%19%36.4%28.8%20.7%
Slider11%16%35.9%25.5%21.4%
Cutter14%7%18.8%19.2%18.7%
Thomas Saggese bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Thomas Saggese with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.5%43.3%
Whiff%21.2%23.5%
Contact%78.8%76.5%
Chase%44.8%39.4%
wOBA.247.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.3%25.7%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.310
K%25.2%
BB%6.6%
Whiff%10.2%
Barrel%4.3%
Hard-hit%29.5%
Avg EV90.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

66 PA
wOBA.329
xwOBA vs this mix.341against pitches like his
RV/1000.10
Hard-hit%33.6%
K%17.7%
BB%7.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Jacob MisiorowskiRHP · MIL vs STL
7.8projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 11 · 21.3 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 5.2%5%≤34 strikeouts: 6.5%6%45 strikeouts: 10.1%10%56 strikeouts: 12.9%13%67 strikeouts: 14.2%14%78 strikeouts: 13.7%14%89+ strikeouts: 37.4%37%9+book 7.5
Over 7.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%37.3%
BB%5.5%
Whiff%18.3%
Velo97.7
BTB Stuff134
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball63%142100.918.5%
Cutter14%12895.611.2%
Curveball11%10788.521.0%
Slider11%12791.224.8%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 158235%23%15%.274
Sep 89338%15%21%.223
Sep 29224%12%14%.433

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Jacob Misiorowski MIL · RHPvsSTL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameSTL @ MIL →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Thomas Saggese: every projection we've made →