MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 27, 2026
2:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PHI · batting 4Alec Bohm
Bats rightTalent grade APowerHot
.307wOBA vs RHP.339xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · TBNick Martinez
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
3.4projected K16%K%2.6trips vs this hitter
Nick Martinez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Changeup: 24% usage, 79.3 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Alec Bohm: wOBA .318 vs league .322 (about even).Changeup 24%Sinker: 21% usage, 92.5 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Alec Bohm: wOBA .346 vs league .353 (about even).Sinker 21%Cutter: 20% usage, 89.2 mph, -1.7″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Alec Bohm: wOBA .321 vs league .328 (about even).Cutter 20%Fastball: 19% usage, 92.9 mph, +5.8″ arm side, +17.6″ rise. Alec Bohm: wOBA .338 vs league .346 (about even).Fastball 19%Curveball: 12% usage, 81.0 mph, -1.1″ arm side, -16.0″ rise. Alec Bohm: wOBA .289 vs league .293 (about even).Curveball 12%Slider: 5% usage, 85.0 mph, -0.8″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Alec Bohm: wOBA .301 vs league .305 (about even).Slider 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Alec Bohm's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Alec Bohm's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 84.0 mph at -2°Out: 95.0 mph at -8°Out: 90.8 mph at -31°Out: 98.9 mph at 20°Out: 105.7 mph at -5°Out: 93.5 mph at 37°Single: 86.4 mph at 7°Out: 104.0 mph at -9°Single: 86.5 mph at 13°Out: 94.1 mph at 46°Out: 95.1 mph at -39°Double: 105.3 mph at 15°Single: 97.4 mph at 14°Out: 51.9 mph at -59°Single: 102.3 mph at -2°Out: 77.3 mph at 8°Out: 98.2 mph at 30°Single: 103.8 mph at 3°Single: 106.4 mph at 8°Out: 104.0 mph at 7°Out: 70.3 mph at 48°Out: 102.4 mph at 25°Out: 75.8 mph at 5°Single: 81.3 mph at -44°Out: 92.3 mph at 31°Out: 81.5 mph at 25°Out: 91.3 mph at -20°Single: 91.6 mph at 15°Single: 94.5 mph at 12°Single: 104.0 mph at 6°Out: 92.3 mph at -12°Out: 59.1 mph at -45°Out: 96.0 mph at 24°Out: 83.8 mph at 32°Out: 98.2 mph at -30°Single: 105.4 mph at 14°Double: 103.0 mph at 22°Single: 106.8 mph at 3°Single: 104.9 mph at 5°Out: 91.4 mph at 7°
50% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit70.9%67.4%+3.5
2+ total bases43.7%40.3%+3.4
Home run11.6%10.6%+0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+0.7
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+1.1
Home run
Starter
-0.2
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Alec Bohm hits
Where they meet

.318 xwOBA for Alec Bohm in the spots Nick Martinez throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .307 (+11 points). His best spot against righties is middle, and Nick Martinez puts 6% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Nick Martinez · where he throws to right-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing5%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing4%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing7%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing6%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing5%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing6%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing7%11% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing11%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing8%11% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing11%21% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing21%
All · 499 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters9%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%18% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters18%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%
Sinker · 203 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%11% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters11%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%37% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters37%
Cutter · 123 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%8% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters8%9% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters9%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%30% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters30%26% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters26%
Changeup · 96 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%20% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters20%34% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters34%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%
Fastball · 61 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Alec Bohm · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .240 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 36 pitches seen.259xwOBA .352 shrunk (raw .386 on 16 PA) · league .307 · 36 pitches seen.352xwOBA .250 shrunk (raw .232 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 31 pitches seen.250xwOBA .324 shrunk (raw .309 on 15 PA) · league .342 · 46 pitches seen.324xwOBA .492 shrunk (raw .555 on 20 PA) · league .386 · 59 pitches seen.492xwOBA .300 shrunk (raw .288 on 21 PA) · league .321 · 51 pitches seen.300xwOBA .276 shrunk (raw .247 on 13 PA) · league .308 · 35 pitches seen.276xwOBA .375 shrunk (raw .391 on 18 PA) · league .351 · 44 pitches seen.375xwOBA .294 shrunk (raw .295 on 15 PA) · league .292 · 53 pitches seen.294xwOBA .433 shrunk (raw .461 on 24 PA) · league .377 · 116 pitches seen.433xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .357 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 69 pitches seen.312xwOBA .297 shrunk (raw .318 on 19 PA) · league .263 · 79 pitches seen.297xwOBA .240 shrunk (raw .226 on 30 PA) · league .274 · 205 pitches seen.240
vs RHP · 860 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 4% of 28 swings · league 22%4%Whiff 7% of 30 swings · league 20%7%Whiff 24% of 21 swings · league 19%24%Whiff 6% of 34 swings · league 10%6%Whiff 14% of 43 swings · league 9%14%Whiff 16% of 32 swings · league 11%16%Whiff 0% of 19 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 4% of 27 swings · league 13%4%Whiff 20% of 30 swings · league 17%20%Whiff 18% of 44 swings · league 28%18%Whiff 29% of 17 swings · league 24%29%Whiff 13% of 32 swings · league 32%13%Whiff 48% of 46 swings · league 49%48%
vs RHP · 860 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 78% of 36 pitches · league 62%78%Swings at 83% of 36 pitches · league 72%83%Swings at 68% of 31 pitches · league 66%68%Swings at 74% of 46 pitches · league 70%74%Swings at 73% of 59 pitches · league 76%73%Swings at 63% of 51 pitches · league 70%63%Swings at 54% of 35 pitches · league 65%54%Swings at 61% of 44 pitches · league 68%61%Swings at 57% of 53 pitches · league 60%57%Swings at 38% of 116 pitches · league 24%38%Swings at 25% of 69 pitches · league 34%25%Swings at 41% of 79 pitches · league 40%41%Swings at 22% of 205 pitches · league 32%22%
vs RHP · 860 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Alec Bohm against each of Nick Martinez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Changeup24%79.3+12″ / +5″.318.32218.1%31.5%71About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker21%92.5+14″ / +14″.346.35310.3%13.5%647About league average vs these
Cutter20%89.2-2″ / +11″.321.32819.8%24.8%357About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Fastball19%92.9+6″ / +18″.338.34616.1%20.5%509About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball12%81.0-1″ / -16″.289.29319.9%26.6%42About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider5%85.0-1″ / +2″.301.30524.0%31.9%365About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Alec Bohm · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.214.267.214.227.30813.3%6.7%20.0%90.1104.08.3%58.3%33.3%
Last 15 G1541.250.341.306.300.31414.6%12.2%14.1%90.7106.83.3%50.0%33.3%
Last 30 G2978.209.321.284.283.30719.2%12.8%17.0%89.9106.83.8%46.2%36.5%
90 days71221.238.330.352.308.34116.3%10.0%16.6%91.0107.46.3%46.8%35.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 158 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 21%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G36.333.333.500.508.33216.7%0.0%18.2%97.0105.70.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1122.400.455.500.464.5054.5%9.1%9.7%93.4106.410.5%52.6%47.4%
Last 30 G2047.395.447.558.457.4658.5%8.5%16.9%92.5107.710.3%53.8%43.6%
90 days4087.390.425.598.452.4428.0%4.6%14.2%93.3109.49.3%50.7%45.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 75 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 35%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 3%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.250.286.300.307.31514.3%4.8%19.4%92.1105.75.9%52.9%35.3%
Last 15 G1563.304.381.375.357.38111.1%11.1%12.6%91.7106.86.1%51.0%38.8%
Last 30 G30125.282.368.391.348.36615.2%11.2%17.0%91.0107.76.6%49.5%39.6%
90 days73308.284.357.425.349.37014.0%8.4%16.0%91.7109.47.3%48.1%38.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 233 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 25%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 4%
Alec Bohm · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating95Top tier
Last 100 pitches95steady
wOBA / xwOBA.347 / .382running 36 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball95.684.0-2.135Out
Sep 25RHPCurveball81.495.0-8.199Out
Sep 25RHPChangeup89.190.8-31.068Force out
Sep 25RHPFastball94.898.920.401Out
Sep 24LHPSinker97.2105.7-5.343Error
Sep 24LHPFastball94.393.537.111Out
Sep 23RHPCutter86.986.47.388Single
Sep 23RHPSinker100.2104.0-9.277Out
Sep 22LHPChangeup84.686.513.823Single
Sep 22LHPSinker91.494.146.003Out
Sep 22RHPSinker96.795.1-39.065Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper81.5105.315.712Double
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400000
Sep 24400011
Sep 23411002
Sep 22423000
Sep 20522000
Sep 19422011
Sep 18400000
Sep 17411000
Sep 16522030
Sep 15411010

Two strikes

Nick Martinez TB · RHPwith two strikes
Nick Martinez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sinker33%33%8.2%19.1%17.7%
Fastball14%24%14.3%13.1%18.3%
Changeup24%24%17.0%11.9%18.4%
Cutter24%17%8.8%11.7%18.7%
Slider5%2%0.0%0.0%21.4%
Alec Bohm bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Alec Bohm with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.2%43.3%
Whiff%17.3%23.5%
Contact%82.7%76.5%
Chase%37.7%39.4%
wOBA.246.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes14.7%19.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.342
K%14.8%
BB%8.0%
Whiff%8.1%
Barrel%5.3%
Hard-hit%35.9%
Avg EV91.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

218 PA
wOBA.307
xwOBA vs this mix.339against pitches like his
RV/100-0.43
Hard-hit%33.2%
K%17.0%
BB%8.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Nick MartinezRHP · TB vs PHI
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 21.8 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 55.5%55%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 12.7%13%56 strikeouts: 7.3%7%67 strikeouts: 3.6%4%78 strikeouts: 1.5%2%89+ strikeouts: 0.9%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.7%
BB%2.5%
Whiff%7.8%
Velo87.7
BTB Stuff92
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sinker33%9992.24.8%
Cutter24%8789.05.4%
Changeup24%9877.912.5%
Fastball14%7892.68.8%
Slider5%8284.316.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 229429%10%17%.277
Sep 167216%6%21%.353
Sep 106815%7%20%.090

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Nick Martinez TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Alec Bohm: every projection we've made →