TB at PHI, Sep 27, 2026

The game

TB runs3.0win 38%

PHI runs4.3win 62%

Total7.3no pre-game book line

No run, 1st inning54%research only

Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.

Park and air

Carry: – vs neutral air
Weather: 59°F · Crosswind · roof open
Park factor: Runs 104 · HR 107 100 = average
Schedule: TB day-after-night; PHI day-after-night

Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.

TB starter

Nick MartinezRHP · TB vs PHI

3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 21.8 batters over 5.0 innings

Over 3.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%15.7%

BB%2.5%

Whiff%7.8%

Velo87.7

BTB Stuff92

Location106

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%

Sinker33%9992.24.8%

Cutter24%8789.05.4%

Changeup24%9877.912.5%

Fastball14%7892.68.8%

Slider5%8284.316.7%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 22	94	29%	10%	17%	.277
Sep 16	72	16%	6%	21%	.353
Sep 10	68	15%	7%	20%	.090

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Nick Martinez TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Kyle Schwarber30%

2Trea Turner22%

3Bryce Harper21%

4Alec Bohm17%

5Bryson Stott16%

6Brandon Marsh22%

7Justin Crawford14%

8J.T. Realmuto24%

9Edmundo Sosa24%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

PHI starter

Zack WheelerRHP · PHI vs TB

6.8projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 10 · 23.4 batters over 5.5 innings

Over 6.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.

K%33.7%

BB%8.3%

Whiff%16.1%

Velo90.1

BTB Stuff100

Location106

PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%

Fastball35%11095.114.3%

Splitter18%8387.425.5%

Sinker15%9794.86.6%

Sweeper13%9181.316.9%

Cutter10%11290.710.9%

Curveball9%10480.025.0%

Last 3 startsTrending Up

Date	Pitches	K%	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	wOBA
Sep 22	101	48%	21%	9%	.226
Sep 16	91	20%	14%	32%	.186
Sep 10	110	33%	16%	22%	.231

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Zack Wheeler PHI · RHPvsTB lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

1Yandy Díaz19%

2Jonathan Aranda26%

3Junior Caminero21%

4Ryan Vilade28%

5Jonny DeLuca22%

6Chandler Simpson6%

7Ben Williamson17%

8Nick Fortes18%

9Jorge Mateo36%

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Pitch-mix battles

each lineup against the starter it faces

Zack Wheeler PHI · RHPvsTB lineuppitch-mix battle

Zack Wheeler's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Zack Wheeler's pitches					TB lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Fastball	35%	95.1	110	14.3%	0.06	.357	8.4%	26.1%	+0.91
Splitter	18%	87.4	83	25.5%	0.87	.308	12.6%	18.5%	-0.06
Sinker	15%	94.8	97	6.6%	0.05	.375	3.5%	33.8%	+0.75
Sweeper	13%	81.3	91	16.9%	0.11	.286	12.0%	20.3%	-0.16
Cutter	10%	90.7	112	10.9%	0.36	.334	8.6%	27.1%	+0.06
Curveball	9%	80.0	104	25.0%	1.15	.248	10.8%	22.0%	-0.43

Nick Martinez TB · RHPvsPHI lineuppitch-mix battle

Nick Martinez's whiff and run value per 100 pitches next to what this lineup has done against the same pitch type. Edge is positive when the pitch favors the hitters.
	Nick Martinez's pitches					PHI lineup vs that pitch
Pitch	Usage	Velo	BTB Stuff	Whiff%	RV/100	wOBA	Whiff%	Hard-hit%	Edge
Sinker	33%	92.2	99	4.8%	0.56	.334	4.4%	35.0%	+0.29
Cutter	24%	89.0	87	5.4%	2.85	.291	10.9%	26.2%	-1.36
Changeup	24%	77.9	98	12.5%	-0.42	.273	12.8%	18.6%	-0.48
Fastball	14%	92.6	78	8.8%	1.14	.345	8.4%	28.7%	+0.12
Slider	5%	84.3	82	16.7%	0.19	.301	12.6%	25.1%	-0.06

Bullpens

Rays bullpen#10 of 30

K%23.2%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%13.4%

SwStr%11.8%

wOBA allowed.296

Arms available19 / 19

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Phillies bullpen#18 of 30

K%22.8%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%14.7%

SwStr%10.4%

wOBA allowed.364

Arms available15 / 15

No one pitched yesterday.

Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.

Two strikes

how each starter finishes hitters

Nick Martinez TB · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Sinker+0 pts

Fastball+10 pts

Changeup+1 pts

Cutter-7 pts

Slider-3 pts

Nick Martinez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Sinker	33%	33%	8.2%	19.1%	17.7%
Fastball	14%	24%	14.3%	13.1%	18.3%
Changeup	24%	24%	17.0%	11.9%	18.4%
Cutter	24%	17%	8.8%	11.7%	18.7%
Slider	5%	2%	0.0%	0.0%	21.4%

Zack Wheeler PHI · RHPwith two strikes

Usage, overall to two strikesOverall Two strikes

Fastball+0 pts

Splitter+5 pts

Curveball+6 pts

Sweeper-2 pts

Sinker-5 pts

Cutter-5 pts

Zack Wheeler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
Pitch	Overall	2 strikes	Whiff%	Put-away	League put-away
Fastball	35%	36%	27.1%	21.4%	18.3%
Splitter	18%	23%	39.7%	26.9%	21.3%
Curveball	9%	15%	46.7%	29.2%	20.7%
Sweeper	13%	11%	30.8%	21.2%	20.7%
Sinker	15%	11%	3.6%	19.6%	17.7%
Cutter	10%	5%	16.7%	31.8%	18.7%

Rays lineup

Projected · facing Zack Wheeler RHP

Matchup: points of 1+ hit chance against the same hitter facing a league-average starter, bullpen and park. wOBA vs hand: the last 90 days against pitchers of the starter's hand. Talent: season-level grade. Form is context and doesn't move a projection.
Spot	Hitter	1+ hit	2+ TB	HR	PA	Matchup (1+ hit)	wOBA vs hand	Talent grade	Type	Form
1	Yandy Díaz DH · bats R	63.9%	37.9%	11.4%	4.0	-2.8	.311	B	Power	Cold
2	Jonathan Aranda 1B · bats L	60.4%	35.6%	13.4%	3.9	-3.9	.333	A	Power	Normal
3	Junior Caminero 3B · bats R	61.7%	39.1%	17.7%	3.8	-3.6	.345	A	Power	Normal
4	Ryan Vilade LF · bats R	50.9%	28.7%	10.1%	3.8	-3.7	.267	C	Balanced	Cold
5	Jonny DeLuca RF · bats R	54.6%	26.1%	5.0%	3.7	-3.8	.352	F	Balanced	Normal
6	Chandler Simpson LF · bats L	63.5%	28.0%	1.0%	3.6	-0.5	.349	F	Balanced	Normal
7	Ben Williamson 2B · bats R	52.8%	24.3%	3.7%	3.5	-2.9	.330	F	Balanced	Normal
8	Nick Fortes C · bats R	53.9%	27.3%	7.3%	3.4	-1.9	.336	F	Balanced	Hot
9	Jorge Mateo SS · bats R	41.9%	20.3%	6.1%	3.3	-2.6	.219	F	Balanced	Cold

Phillies lineup

Projected · facing Nick Martinez RHP