MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 27, 2026
2:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · TB · batting 7Ben Williamson
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.330wOBA vs RHP.310xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · PHIZack Wheeler
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Trending Up
6.8projected K34%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Zack Wheeler's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 95.9 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +15.2″ rise. Ben Williamson: wOBA .319 vs league .336 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 41%Sinker: 18% usage, 95.4 mph, +16.6″ arm side, +8.6″ rise. Ben Williamson: wOBA .325 vs league .342 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 18%Cutter: 16% usage, 91.2 mph, -2.0″ arm side, +7.0″ rise. Ben Williamson: wOBA .293 vs league .310 (pitcher's edge).Cutter 16%Curveball: 10% usage, 81.2 mph, -10.1″ arm side, -10.7″ rise. Ben Williamson: wOBA .265 vs league .282 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 10%Sweeper: 9% usage, 83.8 mph, -13.7″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Ben Williamson: wOBA .250 vs league .267 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 9%Splitter: 5% usage, 87.1 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +3.5″ rise. Ben Williamson: wOBA .288 vs league .305 (pitcher's edge).Splitter 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ben Williamson's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit52.8%55.7%-2.9
2+ total bases24.3%26.5%-2.1
Home run3.7%4.4%-0.7
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-3.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.4
Home run
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.2

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Ben Williamson hits
Zack Wheeler · where he throws to right-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing3%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing3%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing2%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 16% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing7%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing5%12% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing12%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing6%20% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 32% per swing20%23% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 67% per swing23%
All · 590 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%21% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters21%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%38% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters38%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%
Sinker · 191 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%14% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters14%20% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters20%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%
Fastball · 166 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%8% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters8%9% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters9%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%53% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters53%
Sweeper · 159 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters57% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters57%29% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters29%
Splitter · 58 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Pitch by pitch

Ben Williamson against each of Zack Wheeler's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%95.9+9″ / +15″.319.33614.9%19.6%87About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker18%95.4+17″ / +9″.325.3429.3%11.9%57About league average vs these
Cutter16%91.2-2″ / +7″.293.31023.5%28.9%60About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball10%81.2-10″ / -11″.265.28229.2%32.8%20About league average vs these
Sweeper9%83.8-14″ / +2″.250.26731.0%34.3%46About league average vs these
Splitter5%87.1+14″ / +4″.288.30525.3%33.4%15About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating8Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.277 / .258running 19 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases1/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Zack Wheeler PHI · RHPwith two strikes
Zack Wheeler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball35%36%27.1%21.4%18.3%
Splitter18%23%39.7%26.9%21.3%
Curveball9%15%46.7%29.2%20.7%
Sweeper13%11%30.8%21.2%20.7%
Sinker15%11%3.6%19.6%17.7%
Cutter10%5%16.7%31.8%18.7%
Ben Williamson bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Ben Williamson with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.5%43.3%
Whiff%18.6%23.5%
Contact%81.4%76.5%
Chase%41.8%39.4%
wOBA.223.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.4%24.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.291
K%20.5%
BB%5.8%
Whiff%9.4%
Barrel%2.5%
Hard-hit%25.5%
Avg EV86.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

41 PA
wOBA.330
xwOBA vs this mix.310against pitches like his
RV/1000.02
Hard-hit%22.5%
K%17.4%
BB%6.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Zack WheelerRHP · PHI vs TB
6.8projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 10 · 23.4 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 9.7%10%≤34 strikeouts: 10.1%10%45 strikeouts: 13.6%14%56 strikeouts: 15.2%15%67 strikeouts: 14.7%15%78 strikeouts: 12.4%12%89+ strikeouts: 24.3%24%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.7%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%16.1%
Velo90.1
BTB Stuff100
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball35%11095.114.3%
Splitter18%8387.425.5%
Sinker15%9794.86.6%
Sweeper13%9181.316.9%
Cutter10%11290.710.9%
Curveball9%10480.025.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 2210148%21%9%.226
Sep 169120%14%32%.186
Sep 1011033%16%22%.231

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Zack Wheeler PHI · RHPvsTB lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ben Williamson: every projection we've made →