MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 27, 2026
2:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · TB · batting 6Chandler Simpson
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.349wOBA vs RHP.291xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · PHIZack Wheeler
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Trending Up
6.8projected K34%K%2.3trips vs this hitter
Zack Wheeler's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 95.9 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +15.2″ rise. Chandler Simpson: wOBA .340 vs league .345 (about even).Fastball 41%Sinker: 18% usage, 95.4 mph, +16.6″ arm side, +8.6″ rise. Chandler Simpson: wOBA .353 vs league .358 (about even).Sinker 18%Cutter: 16% usage, 91.2 mph, -2.0″ arm side, +7.0″ rise. Chandler Simpson: wOBA .341 vs league .346 (about even).Cutter 16%Curveball: 10% usage, 81.2 mph, -10.1″ arm side, -10.7″ rise. Chandler Simpson: wOBA .282 vs league .287 (about even).Curveball 10%Sweeper: 9% usage, 83.8 mph, -13.7″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Chandler Simpson: wOBA .310 vs league .315 (about even).Sweeper 9%Splitter: 5% usage, 87.1 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +3.5″ rise. Chandler Simpson: wOBA .294 vs league .299 (about even).Splitter 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Chandler Simpson's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.5%64.1%-0.5
2+ total bases28.0%28.4%-0.4
Home run1.0%1.2%-0.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.3
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
+0.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Chandler Simpson hits
Zack Wheeler · where he throws to left-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 38% per swing4%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 32% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 26% per swing4%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing4%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing4%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing5%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 21% per swing4%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing3%11% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 42% per swing11%12% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 32% per swing12%20% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing20%19% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 59% per swing19%
All · 813 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%12% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters12%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%20% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters20%16% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters16%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%
Fastball · 327 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%9% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters50% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters50%25% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters25%
Splitter · 187 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3%7% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters7%12% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%3% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%28% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters28%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%15% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters15%
Cutter · 138 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters25% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters25%56% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters56%
Curveball · 113 pitches · catcher's view
16% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters16%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%12% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters12%36% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters36%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%
Sinker · 25 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%13% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters13%4% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters4%13% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters13%0% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters26% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters26%26% of his Sweeper pitches to left-handed hitters26%
Sweeper · 23 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Pitch by pitch

Chandler Simpson against each of Zack Wheeler's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%95.9+9″ / +15″.340.3454.4%19.2%202About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker18%95.4+17″ / +9″.353.3583.5%14.4%125About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Cutter16%91.2-2″ / +7″.341.3465.9%22.3%79About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball10%81.2-10″ / -11″.282.28717.5%30.8%36About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper9%83.8-14″ / +2″.310.31514.7%27.2%30About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Splitter5%87.1+14″ / +4″.294.29917.2%27.9%58About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormNormal
Contact rating18Poor
Last 100 pitches21steady
wOBA / xwOBA.347 / .280running 68 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Zack Wheeler PHI · RHPwith two strikes
Zack Wheeler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball35%36%27.1%21.4%18.3%
Splitter18%23%39.7%26.9%21.3%
Curveball9%15%46.7%29.2%20.7%
Sweeper13%11%30.8%21.2%20.7%
Sinker15%11%3.6%19.6%17.7%
Cutter10%5%16.7%31.8%18.7%
Chandler Simpson bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Chandler Simpson with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%25.1%41.3%
Whiff%11.3%21.6%
Contact%88.7%78.4%
Chase%41.7%39.4%
wOBA.276.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes11.3%21.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.343
K%6.6%
BB%3.4%
Whiff%5.3%
Barrel%0.3%
Hard-hit%12.6%
Avg EV80.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

188 PA
wOBA.349
xwOBA vs this mix.291against pitches like his
RV/1000.07
Hard-hit%12.7%
K%5.8%
BB%3.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Zack WheelerRHP · PHI vs TB
6.8projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 10 · 23.4 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 9.7%10%≤34 strikeouts: 10.1%10%45 strikeouts: 13.6%14%56 strikeouts: 15.2%15%67 strikeouts: 14.7%15%78 strikeouts: 12.4%12%89+ strikeouts: 24.3%24%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.7%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%16.1%
Velo90.1
BTB Stuff100
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball35%11095.114.3%
Splitter18%8387.425.5%
Sinker15%9794.86.6%
Sweeper13%9181.316.9%
Cutter10%11290.710.9%
Curveball9%10480.025.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 2210148%21%9%.226
Sep 169120%14%32%.186
Sep 1011033%16%22%.231

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Zack Wheeler PHI · RHPvsTB lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Chandler Simpson: every projection we've made →