MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 27, 2026
2:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · TB · batting 5Jonny DeLuca
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.352wOBA vs RHP.266xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · PHIZack Wheeler
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Trending Up
6.8projected K34%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Zack Wheeler's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 95.9 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +15.2″ rise. Jonny DeLuca: wOBA .340 vs league .336 (about even).Fastball 41%Sinker: 18% usage, 95.4 mph, +16.6″ arm side, +8.6″ rise. Jonny DeLuca: wOBA .345 vs league .342 (about even).Sinker 18%Cutter: 16% usage, 91.2 mph, -2.0″ arm side, +7.0″ rise. Jonny DeLuca: wOBA .313 vs league .310 (about even).Cutter 16%Curveball: 10% usage, 81.2 mph, -10.1″ arm side, -10.7″ rise. Jonny DeLuca: wOBA .285 vs league .282 (about even).Curveball 10%Sweeper: 9% usage, 83.8 mph, -13.7″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Jonny DeLuca: wOBA .271 vs league .267 (about even).Sweeper 9%Splitter: 5% usage, 87.1 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +3.5″ rise. Jonny DeLuca: wOBA .308 vs league .305 (about even).Splitter 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jonny DeLuca's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jonny DeLuca's last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 97.1 mph at -12°Single: 102.5 mph at 10°Out: 61.1 mph at 12°Single: 107.5 mph at 5°Out: 57.8 mph at -58°Double: 74.7 mph at 48°Single: 108.4 mph at -8°Single: 95.4 mph at 8°Out: 89.3 mph at -11°Out: 94.7 mph at 0°Double: 105.4 mph at 7°Out: 92.2 mph at -18°Double: 106.3 mph at 8°Out: 93.8 mph at 69°Out: 72.2 mph at 67°Out: 81.1 mph at 75°Out: 84.4 mph at -9°Out: 91.9 mph at 35°Single: 108.4 mph at -5°Double: 106.0 mph at 4°Out: 73.6 mph at -53°Out: 49.6 mph at 74°Out: 57.3 mph at 41°Out: 91.8 mph at 22°Single: 87.6 mph at 10°Single: 108.6 mph at -7°Single: 72.3 mph at 28°Out: 81.2 mph at 33°Single: 87.5 mph at 9°Out: 96.9 mph at 42°Out: 88.0 mph at 32°Out: 100.8 mph at -7°Out: 71.2 mph at -5°Out: 71.1 mph at 52°Single: 106.8 mph at 9°Out: 104.4 mph at 2°Single: 87.8 mph at 9°Out: 77.2 mph at 35°Out: 51.4 mph at 50°Out: 70.6 mph at 55°
35% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.6%58.4%-3.8
2+ total bases26.1%29.2%-3.2
Home run5.0%6.6%-1.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-4.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.4
2+ total bases
Starter
-3.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
-1.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jonny DeLuca hits
Where they meet

.283 xwOBA for Jonny DeLuca in the spots Zack Wheeler throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .303 (-20 points). His best spot against righties is down-left, and Zack Wheeler puts 7% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Zack Wheeler · where he throws to right-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing3%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing3%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing2%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 16% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing7%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing5%12% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing12%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing6%20% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 32% per swing20%23% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 67% per swing23%
All · 590 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%21% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters21%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%38% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters38%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%
Sinker · 191 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%14% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters14%20% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters20%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%
Fastball · 166 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%8% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters8%9% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters9%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%53% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters53%
Sweeper · 159 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters57% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters57%29% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters29%
Splitter · 58 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Jonny DeLuca · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .227 shrunk (raw .087 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 14 pitches seen.227xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw .262 on 6 PA) · league .307 · 31 pitches seen.292xwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .237 on 3 PA) · league .263 · 14 pitches seen.258xwOBA .319 shrunk (raw .294 on 11 PA) · league .342 · 24 pitches seen.319xwOBA .355 shrunk (raw .313 on 9 PA) · league .386 · 27 pitches seen.355xwOBA .313 shrunk (raw .304 on 10 PA) · league .321 · 28 pitches seen.313xwOBA .355 shrunk (raw .467 on 5 PA) · league .308 · 17 pitches seen.355xwOBA .358 shrunk (raw .367 on 9 PA) · league .351 · 18 pitches seen.358xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .294 on 11 PA) · league .292 · 19 pitches seen.293xwOBA .359 shrunk (raw .289 on 3 PA) · league .377 · 30 pitches seen.359xwOBA .193 shrunk (raw .031 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 47 pitches seen.193xwOBA .245 shrunk (raw .220 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 31 pitches seen.245xwOBA .241 shrunk (raw .228 on 31 PA) · league .274 · 124 pitches seen.241
vs RHP · 424 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 22%9%Whiff 11% of 19 swings · league 20%11%Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 19%38%Whiff 5% of 19 swings · league 10%5%Whiff 14% of 22 swings · league 9%14%Whiff 8% of 24 swings · league 11%8%Whiff 0% of 13 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 28%20%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 24%20%Whiff 50% of 14 swings · league 32%50%Whiff 48% of 52 swings · league 49%48%
vs RHP · 424 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 79% of 14 pitches · league 62%79%Swings at 61% of 31 pitches · league 72%61%Swings at 57% of 14 pitches · league 66%57%Swings at 79% of 24 pitches · league 70%79%Swings at 82% of 27 pitches · league 76%82%Swings at 86% of 28 pitches · league 70%86%Swings at 77% of 17 pitches · league 65%77%Swings at 67% of 18 pitches · league 68%67%Swings at 63% of 19 pitches · league 60%63%Swings at 17% of 30 pitches · league 24%17%Swings at 21% of 47 pitches · league 34%21%Swings at 45% of 31 pitches · league 40%45%Swings at 42% of 124 pitches · league 32%42%
vs RHP · 424 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jonny DeLuca against each of Zack Wheeler's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%95.9+9″ / +15″.340.33614.5%19.6%105About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker18%95.4+17″ / +9″.345.3429.1%11.9%88About league average vs these
Cutter16%91.2-2″ / +7″.313.31022.3%28.9%81About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball10%81.2-10″ / -11″.285.28229.8%32.8%30About league average vs these
Sweeper9%83.8-14″ / +2″.271.26730.7%34.3%71About league average vs these
Splitter5%87.1+14″ / +4″.308.30525.7%33.4%23About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jonny DeLuca · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G38.667.7501.000.713.38225.0%25.0%17.6%99.0108.40.0%75.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1225.261.320.348.372.22520.0%8.0%17.8%87.4108.60.0%38.9%11.1%
Last 30 G2662.263.323.386.358.22619.4%8.1%18.6%86.1111.10.0%28.9%17.8%
90 days47117.259.316.463.360.26221.4%7.7%21.3%85.7111.13.6%32.5%26.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 83 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 21%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.167.167.167.150.21441.7%0.0%33.3%85.4102.50.0%42.9%42.9%
Last 15 G1230.300.300.367.293.23933.3%0.0%21.8%88.6108.40.0%35.0%45.0%
Last 30 G2248.255.255.319.276.20729.2%0.0%20.9%87.2108.40.0%32.4%29.4%
90 days4595.269.277.312.273.22923.2%1.1%20.5%84.3108.40.0%29.2%29.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 72 balls in play
Ground 53%Line drive 18%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.333.400.444.375.28135.0%10.0%26.3%90.4108.40.0%54.5%27.3%
Last 15 G1555.283.309.358.329.23327.3%3.6%20.0%88.0108.60.0%36.8%28.9%
Last 30 G30110.260.294.356.322.21823.6%4.5%19.6%86.6111.10.0%30.4%22.8%
90 days59212.264.299.393.322.24722.2%4.7%20.9%85.1111.11.9%31.0%27.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 155 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 19%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 15%
Jonny DeLuca · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating7Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches2steady
wOBA / xwOBA.318 / .257running 61 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSinker95.397.1-12.196Out
Sep 25LHPSinker95.9102.510.802Single
Sep 25LHPSlider87.361.112.226Out
Sep 24RHPSinker90.5107.55.590Single
Sep 24LHPSinker88.957.8-58.227Force out
Sep 23RHPFastball96.974.748.095Double
Sep 23RHPSinker95.2108.4-8.391Single
Sep 23LHPFastball92.495.48.576Single
Sep 22LHPFastball93.989.3-11.141Out
Sep 22LHPChangeup82.794.70.398Double play
Sep 22RHPFastball92.6105.47.581Double
Sep 20LHPFastball91.192.2-18.134Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411001
Sep 24511021
Sep 23434001
Sep 22300001
Sep 22412003
Sep 20412002
Sep 19100000
Sep 18400002
Sep 17300001
Sep 16423001

Two strikes

Zack Wheeler PHI · RHPwith two strikes
Zack Wheeler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball35%36%27.1%21.4%18.3%
Splitter18%23%39.7%26.9%21.3%
Curveball9%15%46.7%29.2%20.7%
Sweeper13%11%30.8%21.2%20.7%
Sinker15%11%3.6%19.6%17.7%
Cutter10%5%16.7%31.8%18.7%
Jonny DeLuca bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jonny DeLuca with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.5%43.3%
Whiff%18.4%23.5%
Contact%81.6%76.5%
Chase%46.4%39.4%
wOBA.242.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.4%24.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.327
K%22.2%
BB%5.1%
Whiff%11.1%
Barrel%2.2%
Hard-hit%23.2%
Avg EV85.5

Against right-handers, last 90 days

117 PA
wOBA.352
xwOBA vs this mix.266against pitches like his
RV/1001.03
Hard-hit%23.3%
K%21.6%
BB%4.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Zack WheelerRHP · PHI vs TB
6.8projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 10 · 23.4 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 9.7%10%≤34 strikeouts: 10.1%10%45 strikeouts: 13.6%14%56 strikeouts: 15.2%15%67 strikeouts: 14.7%15%78 strikeouts: 12.4%12%89+ strikeouts: 24.3%24%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.7%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%16.1%
Velo90.1
BTB Stuff100
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball35%11095.114.3%
Splitter18%8387.425.5%
Sinker15%9794.86.6%
Sweeper13%9181.316.9%
Cutter10%11290.710.9%
Curveball9%10480.025.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 2210148%21%9%.226
Sep 169120%14%32%.186
Sep 1011033%16%22%.231

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Zack Wheeler PHI · RHPvsTB lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jonny DeLuca: every projection we've made →