MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 27, 2026
2:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · TB · batting 9Jorge Mateo
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedCold
.219wOBA vs RHP.246xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · PHIZack Wheeler
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Trending Up
6.8projected K34%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Zack Wheeler's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 95.9 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +15.2″ rise. Jorge Mateo: wOBA .303 vs league .336 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 41%Sinker: 18% usage, 95.4 mph, +16.6″ arm side, +8.6″ rise. Jorge Mateo: wOBA .309 vs league .342 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 18%Cutter: 16% usage, 91.2 mph, -2.0″ arm side, +7.0″ rise. Jorge Mateo: wOBA .277 vs league .310 (pitcher's edge).Cutter 16%Curveball: 10% usage, 81.2 mph, -10.1″ arm side, -10.7″ rise. Jorge Mateo: wOBA .249 vs league .282 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 10%Sweeper: 9% usage, 83.8 mph, -13.7″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Jorge Mateo: wOBA .234 vs league .267 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 9%Splitter: 5% usage, 87.1 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +3.5″ rise. Jorge Mateo: wOBA .272 vs league .305 (pitcher's edge).Splitter 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jorge Mateo's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit41.9%44.5%-2.6
2+ total bases20.3%21.7%-1.4
Home run6.1%6.5%-0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-3.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jorge Mateo hits
Zack Wheeler · where he throws to right-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing3%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing3%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing2%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 16% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing7%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing5%12% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing12%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing6%20% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 32% per swing20%23% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 67% per swing23%
All · 590 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%21% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters21%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%38% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters38%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%
Sinker · 191 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%14% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters14%20% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters20%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%
Fastball · 166 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%8% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters8%9% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters9%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%53% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters53%
Sweeper · 159 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters57% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters57%29% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters29%
Splitter · 58 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Pitch by pitch

Jorge Mateo against each of Zack Wheeler's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%95.9+9″ / +15″.303.33620.8%19.6%188Struggles with these
Sinker18%95.4+17″ / +9″.309.34212.1%11.9%151Struggles with these
Cutter16%91.2-2″ / +7″.277.31030.6%28.9%154Struggles with these
Curveball10%81.2-10″ / -11″.249.28238.3%32.8%85Struggles with these; misses them more than most
Sweeper9%83.8-14″ / +2″.234.26739.3%34.3%142Struggles with these; misses them more than most
Splitter5%87.1+14″ / +4″.272.30535.9%33.4%40Struggles with these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight

No pitch-level data for this hitter in the current window.

FormCold
Contact rating1Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches0steady
wOBA / xwOBA.175 / .201running 26 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit5/12
2+ total bases0/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Two strikes

Zack Wheeler PHI · RHPwith two strikes
Zack Wheeler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball35%36%27.1%21.4%18.3%
Splitter18%23%39.7%26.9%21.3%
Curveball9%15%46.7%29.2%20.7%
Sweeper13%11%30.8%21.2%20.7%
Sinker15%11%3.6%19.6%17.7%
Cutter10%5%16.7%31.8%18.7%
Jorge Mateo bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jorge Mateo with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%47.6%43.3%
Whiff%26.3%23.5%
Contact%73.7%76.5%
Chase%46.2%39.4%
wOBA.200.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes27.2%24.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.236
K%31.4%
BB%5.9%
Whiff%13.6%
Barrel%3.0%
Hard-hit%18.7%
Avg EV84.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

60 PA
wOBA.219
xwOBA vs this mix.246against pitches like his
RV/100-2.02
Hard-hit%16.7%
K%35.9%
BB%5.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Zack WheelerRHP · PHI vs TB
6.8projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 10 · 23.4 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 9.7%10%≤34 strikeouts: 10.1%10%45 strikeouts: 13.6%14%56 strikeouts: 15.2%15%67 strikeouts: 14.7%15%78 strikeouts: 12.4%12%89+ strikeouts: 24.3%24%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.7%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%16.1%
Velo90.1
BTB Stuff100
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball35%11095.114.3%
Splitter18%8387.425.5%
Sinker15%9794.86.6%
Sweeper13%9181.316.9%
Cutter10%11290.710.9%
Curveball9%10480.025.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 2210148%21%9%.226
Sep 169120%14%32%.186
Sep 1011033%16%22%.231

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Zack Wheeler PHI · RHPvsTB lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jorge Mateo: every projection we've made →