MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 27, 2026
2:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · TB · batting 3Junior Caminero
Bats rightTalent grade APowerNormal
.345wOBA vs RHP.329xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · PHIZack Wheeler
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Trending Up
6.8projected K34%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Zack Wheeler's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 95.9 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +15.2″ rise. Junior Caminero: wOBA .371 vs league .336 (hitter's edge).Fastball 41%Sinker: 18% usage, 95.4 mph, +16.6″ arm side, +8.6″ rise. Junior Caminero: wOBA .376 vs league .342 (hitter's edge).Sinker 18%Cutter: 16% usage, 91.2 mph, -2.0″ arm side, +7.0″ rise. Junior Caminero: wOBA .344 vs league .310 (hitter's edge).Cutter 16%Curveball: 10% usage, 81.2 mph, -10.1″ arm side, -10.7″ rise. Junior Caminero: wOBA .316 vs league .282 (hitter's edge).Curveball 10%Sweeper: 9% usage, 83.8 mph, -13.7″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Junior Caminero: wOBA .301 vs league .267 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 9%Splitter: 5% usage, 87.1 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +3.5″ rise. Junior Caminero: wOBA .339 vs league .305 (hitter's edge).Splitter 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Junior Caminero's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Junior Caminero's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 107.0 mph at 28°Out: 72.1 mph at 65°Single: 106.3 mph at 5°Single: 95.9 mph at 4°Single: 108.2 mph at 17°Out: 107.4 mph at 14°Out: 59.3 mph at 65°Out: 97.7 mph at 22°Out: 93.3 mph at 64°Out: 82.8 mph at 67°Out: 104.2 mph at -2°Out: 92.7 mph at 60°Out: 71.5 mph at -37°Out: 77.1 mph at 14°Out: 93.8 mph at 44°Out: 89.3 mph at 74°Double: 95.5 mph at 2°Out: 83.7 mph at 8°Single: 95.2 mph at 1°Out: 69.0 mph at -75°Out: 110.9 mph at -5°Out: 53.3 mph at -11°Single: 87.7 mph at 18°Double: 101.4 mph at 15°Out: 70.2 mph at -27°Out: 84.1 mph at 46°Out: 97.1 mph at 17°Out: 70.2 mph at 86°Double: 104.0 mph at 21°Out: 93.6 mph at -2°Out: 107.0 mph at 29°Home run: 97.3 mph at 29°Out: 84.9 mph at 34°Out: 85.0 mph at 5°Out: 89.6 mph at 64°Double: 102.9 mph at 2°Out: 86.4 mph at -2°Out: 52.7 mph at 52°Out: 93.0 mph at -37°Single: 101.6 mph at 9°
43% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.7%65.2%-3.6
2+ total bases39.1%41.5%-2.5
Home run17.7%18.2%-0.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-4.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.7
2+ total bases
Starter
-3.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.9
Home run
Starter
-1.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.9

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Junior Caminero hits
Where they meet

.307 xwOBA for Junior Caminero in the spots Zack Wheeler throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .303 (+4 points). His best spot against righties is up-middle, and Zack Wheeler puts 3% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Zack Wheeler · where he throws to right-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing3%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing3%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing2%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 16% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing7%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing5%12% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing12%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing6%20% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 32% per swing20%23% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 67% per swing23%
All · 590 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%21% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters21%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%38% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters38%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%
Sinker · 191 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%14% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters14%20% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters20%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%
Fastball · 166 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%8% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters8%9% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters9%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%53% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters53%
Sweeper · 159 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters57% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters57%29% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters29%
Splitter · 58 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Junior Caminero · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .349 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 30 pitches seen.306xwOBA .482 shrunk (raw .745 on 8 PA) · league .307 · 32 pitches seen.482xwOBA .333 shrunk (raw .544 on 4 PA) · league .263 · 19 pitches seen.333xwOBA .416 shrunk (raw .465 on 18 PA) · league .342 · 41 pitches seen.416xwOBA .406 shrunk (raw .417 on 23 PA) · league .386 · 51 pitches seen.406xwOBA .387 shrunk (raw .418 on 26 PA) · league .321 · 61 pitches seen.387xwOBA .358 shrunk (raw .412 on 11 PA) · league .308 · 40 pitches seen.358xwOBA .340 shrunk (raw .330 on 13 PA) · league .351 · 49 pitches seen.340xwOBA .389 shrunk (raw .462 on 16 PA) · league .292 · 51 pitches seen.389xwOBA .284 shrunk (raw .238 on 24 PA) · league .377 · 93 pitches seen.284xwOBA .266 shrunk (raw .260 on 17 PA) · league .274 · 88 pitches seen.266xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .340 on 15 PA) · league .263 · 80 pitches seen.306xwOBA .206 shrunk (raw .194 on 66 PA) · league .274 · 330 pitches seen.206
vs RHP · 965 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 23% of 22 swings · league 22%23%Whiff 29% of 21 swings · league 20%29%Whiff 22% of 9 swings · league 19%22%Whiff 7% of 30 swings · league 10%7%Whiff 3% of 39 swings · league 9%3%Whiff 10% of 42 swings · league 11%10%Whiff 4% of 28 swings · league 14%4%Whiff 23% of 30 swings · league 13%23%Whiff 19% of 27 swings · league 17%19%Whiff 27% of 48 swings · league 28%27%Whiff 7% of 31 swings · league 24%7%Whiff 25% of 44 swings · league 32%25%Whiff 53% of 101 swings · league 49%53%
vs RHP · 965 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 73% of 30 pitches · league 62%73%Swings at 66% of 32 pitches · league 72%66%Swings at 47% of 19 pitches · league 66%47%Swings at 73% of 41 pitches · league 70%73%Swings at 77% of 51 pitches · league 76%77%Swings at 69% of 61 pitches · league 70%69%Swings at 70% of 40 pitches · league 65%70%Swings at 61% of 49 pitches · league 68%61%Swings at 53% of 51 pitches · league 60%53%Swings at 52% of 93 pitches · league 24%52%Swings at 35% of 88 pitches · league 34%35%Swings at 55% of 80 pitches · league 40%55%Swings at 31% of 330 pitches · league 32%31%
vs RHP · 965 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Junior Caminero against each of Zack Wheeler's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%95.9+9″ / +15″.371.33618.2%19.6%189Hits these better than most
Sinker18%95.4+17″ / +9″.376.34211.6%11.9%207Hits these better than most
Cutter16%91.2-2″ / +7″.344.31026.8%28.9%160Hits these better than most
Curveball10%81.2-10″ / -11″.316.28230.5%32.8%80Hits these better than most
Sweeper9%83.8-14″ / +2″.301.26731.8%34.3%144Hits these better than most
Splitter5%87.1+14″ / +4″.339.30532.3%33.4%56Hits these better than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Junior Caminero · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G410.200.200.200.180.2450.0%0.0%25.0%90.0108.210.0%40.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1438.216.237.432.284.33115.8%2.6%18.4%90.3110.99.7%41.9%32.3%
Last 30 G2986.268.291.488.331.31120.9%1.2%19.8%91.6110.910.8%47.7%29.2%
90 days76251.259.311.504.359.33920.7%6.0%23.7%92.1116.912.2%48.6%26.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 181 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 18%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G39.222.222.333.239.43922.2%0.0%27.3%93.5107.014.3%57.1%28.6%
Last 15 G823.211.348.316.309.37317.4%17.4%23.8%87.9107.013.3%40.0%33.3%
Last 30 G1743.273.442.424.400.46611.6%23.3%22.1%89.8115.514.3%42.9%35.7%
90 days4495.286.421.519.417.43713.7%17.9%18.8%91.8116.412.5%43.8%35.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 64 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 20%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.211.211.263.208.33710.5%0.0%26.1%91.4108.211.8%47.1%29.4%
Last 15 G1561.214.279.393.293.34716.4%8.2%20.3%89.5110.910.9%41.3%32.6%
Last 30 G30129.270.341.470.353.36017.8%8.5%20.4%91.1115.511.8%46.2%31.2%
90 days80346.265.341.508.374.36518.8%9.2%22.5%92.0116.912.2%47.3%28.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 245 balls in play
Ground 48%Line drive 19%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 16%
Junior Caminero · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating89Excellent
Last 100 pitches73trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.361 / .364results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases6/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPChangeup87.1107.0281.918Out
Sep 25RHPCurveball91.072.165.000Out
Sep 25LHPSlider88.6106.35.579Single
Sep 24RHPSinker97.595.94.511Single
Sep 24RHPCutter88.0108.217.758Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup88.4107.414.748Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper77.359.365.003Out
Sep 24RHPFastball99.197.722.393Out
Sep 23RHPSlider87.693.364.005Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup85.882.867.003Out
Sep 22LHPChangeup84.4104.2-2.372Double play
Sep 22LHPFastball96.492.760.013Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411001
Sep 24522000
Sep 23200000
Sep 22300001
Sep 22512000
Sep 20411001
Sep 19411001
Sep 18512021
Sep 17500021
Sep 16412001

Two strikes

Zack Wheeler PHI · RHPwith two strikes
Zack Wheeler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball35%36%27.1%21.4%18.3%
Splitter18%23%39.7%26.9%21.3%
Curveball9%15%46.7%29.2%20.7%
Sweeper13%11%30.8%21.2%20.7%
Sinker15%11%3.6%19.6%17.7%
Cutter10%5%16.7%31.8%18.7%
Junior Caminero bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Junior Caminero with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.3%43.3%
Whiff%23.6%23.5%
Contact%76.4%76.5%
Chase%45.3%39.4%
wOBA.241.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.3%24.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.365
K%19.2%
BB%8.7%
Whiff%10.5%
Barrel%8.5%
Hard-hit%33.4%
Avg EV91.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

247 PA
wOBA.345
xwOBA vs this mix.329against pitches like his
RV/1000.70
Hard-hit%33.8%
K%21.0%
BB%9.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Zack WheelerRHP · PHI vs TB
6.8projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 10 · 23.4 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 9.7%10%≤34 strikeouts: 10.1%10%45 strikeouts: 13.6%14%56 strikeouts: 15.2%15%67 strikeouts: 14.7%15%78 strikeouts: 12.4%12%89+ strikeouts: 24.3%24%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.7%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%16.1%
Velo90.1
BTB Stuff100
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball35%11095.114.3%
Splitter18%8387.425.5%
Sinker15%9794.86.6%
Sweeper13%9181.316.9%
Cutter10%11290.710.9%
Curveball9%10480.025.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 2210148%21%9%.226
Sep 169120%14%32%.186
Sep 1011033%16%22%.231

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Zack Wheeler PHI · RHPvsTB lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Junior Caminero: every projection we've made →