MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 27, 2026
2:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PHI · batting 1Kyle Schwarber
Bats leftTalent grade BPowerNormal
.318wOBA vs RHP.339xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · TBNick Martinez
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
3.4projected K16%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Nick Martinez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Changeup: 24% usage, 79.3 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Kyle Schwarber: wOBA .342 vs league .301 (hitter's edge).Changeup 24%Sinker: 21% usage, 92.5 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Kyle Schwarber: wOBA .405 vs league .363 (hitter's edge).Sinker 21%Cutter: 20% usage, 89.2 mph, -1.7″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Kyle Schwarber: wOBA .402 vs league .361 (hitter's edge).Cutter 20%Fastball: 19% usage, 92.9 mph, +5.8″ arm side, +17.6″ rise. Kyle Schwarber: wOBA .404 vs league .362 (hitter's edge).Fastball 19%Curveball: 12% usage, 81.0 mph, -1.1″ arm side, -16.0″ rise. Kyle Schwarber: wOBA .332 vs league .291 (hitter's edge).Curveball 12%Slider: 5% usage, 85.0 mph, -0.8″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Kyle Schwarber: wOBA .374 vs league .333 (hitter's edge).Slider 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Kyle Schwarber's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Kyle Schwarber's last 40 balls in playHit (8)Out (32)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 92.6 mph at 7°Out: 112.2 mph at 0°Out: 101.2 mph at -14°Double: 111.8 mph at 9°Single: 100.9 mph at 9°Out: 102.2 mph at -4°Out: 101.7 mph at 44°Out: 71.9 mph at -18°Out: 92.1 mph at 67°Out: 86.7 mph at -7°Out: 79.6 mph at 82°Out: 100.1 mph at 35°Out: 101.0 mph at 38°Double: 93.6 mph at 18°Out: 66.0 mph at -14°Out: 86.0 mph at 58°Out: 80.0 mph at 79°Out: 98.5 mph at 58°Out: 97.7 mph at 33°Out: 92.1 mph at 78°Out: 90.4 mph at 10°Home run: 98.3 mph at 33°Out: 95.7 mph at 24°Out: 70.6 mph at 50°Single: 108.6 mph at 8°Out: 90.9 mph at -21°Single: 104.2 mph at 12°Out: 100.8 mph at 35°Out: 86.4 mph at -2°Out: 77.3 mph at -24°Out: 104.2 mph at 48°Out: 93.4 mph at -25°Out: 70.3 mph at 3°Out: 91.1 mph at 56°Home run: 105.7 mph at 30°Single: 86.6 mph at 5°Out: 80.5 mph at 13°Out: 80.1 mph at 63°Out: 106.2 mph at 8°Out: 92.4 mph at 21°
45% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot20% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit62.2%55.3%+7.0
2+ total bases46.3%39.2%+7.1
Home run24.7%18.9%+5.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+6.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+1.4
2+ total bases
Starter
+5.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.5
Park
+2.1
Home run
Starter
+3.7
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+2.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Kyle Schwarber hits
Where they meet

.321 xwOBA for Kyle Schwarber in the spots Nick Martinez throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .305 (+16 points). His best spot against righties is middle, and Nick Martinez puts 7% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Nick Martinez · where he throws to left-handed hitters
6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing6%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing5%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing7%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing8%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing4%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%9% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 39% per swing9%13% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing13%15% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing15%13% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing13%
All · 648 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters6%0% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters6%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%14% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters14%1% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters1%39% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters39%9% of his Changeup pitches to left-handed hitters9%
Changeup · 175 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%13% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters13%2% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters2%9% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters9%17% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17%1% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters1%4% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters4%8% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters8%1% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters1%19% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters19%0% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters17%
Sinker · 174 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters8%12% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters12%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%7% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%20% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters20%6% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters6%21% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters21%
Cutter · 153 pitches · catcher's view
13% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters13%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%20% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters20%15% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters15%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%
Fastball · 99 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%7% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters7%0% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters9%2% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters2%33% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters33%11% of his Slider pitches to left-handed hitters11%
Slider · 45 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Kyle Schwarber · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .293 shrunk (raw .321 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 33 pitches seen.293xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .216 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 36 pitches seen.268xwOBA .218 shrunk (raw .110 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 25 pitches seen.218xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .256 on 24 PA) · league .342 · 54 pitches seen.285xwOBA .560 shrunk (raw .721 on 13 PA) · league .386 · 43 pitches seen.560xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .223 on 12 PA) · league .321 · 34 pitches seen.272xwOBA .345 shrunk (raw .364 on 24 PA) · league .308 · 58 pitches seen.345xwOBA .400 shrunk (raw .426 on 23 PA) · league .351 · 57 pitches seen.400xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .304 on 5 PA) · league .292 · 38 pitches seen.296xwOBA .371 shrunk (raw .368 on 24 PA) · league .377 · 138 pitches seen.371xwOBA .209 shrunk (raw .131 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 53 pitches seen.209xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .279 on 28 PA) · league .263 · 132 pitches seen.274xwOBA .398 shrunk (raw .442 on 34 PA) · league .274 · 218 pitches seen.398
vs RHP · 919 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 15 swings · league 22%33%Whiff 32% of 28 swings · league 20%32%Whiff 19% of 16 swings · league 19%19%Whiff 21% of 34 swings · league 10%21%Whiff 7% of 31 swings · league 9%7%Whiff 22% of 23 swings · league 11%22%Whiff 11% of 37 swings · league 14%11%Whiff 11% of 44 swings · league 13%11%Whiff 17% of 23 swings · league 17%17%Whiff 31% of 26 swings · league 28%31%Whiff 31% of 26 swings · league 24%31%Whiff 48% of 46 swings · league 32%48%Whiff 62% of 61 swings · league 49%62%
vs RHP · 919 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 46% of 33 pitches · league 62%46%Swings at 78% of 36 pitches · league 72%78%Swings at 64% of 25 pitches · league 66%64%Swings at 63% of 54 pitches · league 70%63%Swings at 72% of 43 pitches · league 76%72%Swings at 68% of 34 pitches · league 70%68%Swings at 64% of 58 pitches · league 65%64%Swings at 77% of 57 pitches · league 68%77%Swings at 61% of 38 pitches · league 60%61%Swings at 19% of 138 pitches · league 24%19%Swings at 49% of 53 pitches · league 34%49%Swings at 35% of 132 pitches · league 40%35%Swings at 28% of 218 pitches · league 32%28%
vs RHP · 919 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Kyle Schwarber against each of Nick Martinez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Changeup24%79.3+12″ / +5″.342.30138.3%28.5%125Hits these better than most; misses them more than most
Sinker21%92.5+14″ / +14″.405.36320.0%16.7%573Hits these better than most
Cutter20%89.2-2″ / +11″.402.36124.0%18.4%378Hits these better than most; misses them more than most
Fastball19%92.9+6″ / +18″.404.36220.9%16.8%562Hits these better than most; misses them more than most
Curveball12%81.0-1″ / -16″.332.29137.5%28.3%79Hits these better than most; misses them more than most
Slider5%85.0-1″ / +2″.374.33336.3%27.8%328Hits these better than most; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Kyle Schwarber · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G413.000.385.000.269.4517.7%38.5%13.0%95.9112.20.0%57.1%0.0%
Last 15 G1239.100.308.233.268.33330.8%23.1%26.6%94.6112.25.6%50.0%16.7%
Last 30 G2583.145.277.362.284.34827.7%15.7%29.1%90.8112.210.6%40.4%27.7%
90 days67222.194.321.417.324.35431.1%15.8%29.3%92.2112.211.2%50.0%37.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 116 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 21%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 17%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.286.444.429.394.38111.1%11.1%38.5%97.2111.80.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1229.174.345.348.319.31520.7%13.8%23.5%91.3111.80.0%47.1%29.4%
Last 30 G2053.233.377.465.371.37418.9%15.1%25.2%91.6111.86.1%48.5%33.3%
90 days55118.237.364.423.350.33425.4%14.4%27.4%90.4112.25.9%41.2%33.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 68 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 25%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.133.409.200.320.4229.1%27.3%22.2%96.5112.20.0%61.5%15.4%
Last 15 G1568.132.324.283.290.32626.5%19.1%25.4%93.0112.22.9%48.6%22.9%
Last 30 G30136.179.316.402.318.35824.3%15.4%27.6%91.1112.28.8%43.8%30.0%
90 days75340.209.336.419.333.34729.1%15.3%28.6%91.6112.29.2%46.7%36.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 184 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 22%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 16%
Kyle Schwarber · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating84Excellent
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.331 / .355running 24 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit4/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball96.992.67.481Out
Sep 25RHPFastball95.8112.20.553Out
Sep 25RHPFastball92.6101.2-14.178Out
Sep 24LHPSinker94.3111.89.822Double
Sep 24LHPSinker93.8100.99.614Single
Sep 24LHPSinker97.5102.2-4.322Out
Sep 24LHPSinker94.7101.744.103Out
Sep 23RHPFastball95.671.9-18.040Out
Sep 23RHPFastball97.792.167.017Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper83.186.7-7.142Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper81.979.682.003Out
Sep 22RHPCutter94.1100.135.688Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400010
Sep 24423000
Sep 23500011
Sep 22400001
Sep 20500040
Sep 19512012
Sep 18400011
Sep 17500011
Sep 16500012
Sep 15414110

Two strikes

Nick Martinez TB · RHPwith two strikes
Nick Martinez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sinker33%33%8.2%19.1%17.7%
Fastball14%24%14.3%13.1%18.3%
Changeup24%24%17.0%11.9%18.4%
Cutter24%17%8.8%11.7%18.7%
Slider5%2%0.0%0.0%21.4%
Kyle Schwarber bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Kyle Schwarber with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%49.6%41.3%
Whiff%29.8%21.6%
Contact%70.2%78.4%
Chase%33.2%39.4%
wOBA.251.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes24.9%18.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.345
K%28.5%
BB%15.1%
Whiff%12.1%
Barrel%5.6%
Hard-hit%25.7%
Avg EV91.4

Against right-handers, last 90 days

218 PA
wOBA.318
xwOBA vs this mix.339against pitches like his
RV/1000.06
Hard-hit%25.3%
K%30.1%
BB%15.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Nick MartinezRHP · TB vs PHI
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 21.8 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 55.5%55%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 12.7%13%56 strikeouts: 7.3%7%67 strikeouts: 3.6%4%78 strikeouts: 1.5%2%89+ strikeouts: 0.9%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.7%
BB%2.5%
Whiff%7.8%
Velo87.7
BTB Stuff92
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sinker33%9992.24.8%
Cutter24%8789.05.4%
Changeup24%9877.912.5%
Fastball14%7892.68.8%
Slider5%8284.316.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 229429%10%17%.277
Sep 167216%6%21%.353
Sep 106815%7%20%.090

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Nick Martinez TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Kyle Schwarber: every projection we've made →