MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 27, 2026
2:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · PHI · batting 2Trea Turner
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedCold
.337wOBA vs RHP.278xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · TBNick Martinez
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
3.4projected K16%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Nick Martinez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Changeup: 24% usage, 79.3 mph, +12.4″ arm side, +4.8″ rise. Trea Turner: wOBA .351 vs league .322 (hitter's edge).Changeup 24%Sinker: 21% usage, 92.5 mph, +14.2″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Trea Turner: wOBA .384 vs league .353 (hitter's edge).Sinker 21%Cutter: 20% usage, 89.2 mph, -1.7″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Trea Turner: wOBA .358 vs league .328 (hitter's edge).Cutter 20%Fastball: 19% usage, 92.9 mph, +5.8″ arm side, +17.6″ rise. Trea Turner: wOBA .376 vs league .346 (hitter's edge).Fastball 19%Curveball: 12% usage, 81.0 mph, -1.1″ arm side, -16.0″ rise. Trea Turner: wOBA .322 vs league .293 (hitter's edge).Curveball 12%Slider: 5% usage, 85.0 mph, -0.8″ arm side, +2.2″ rise. Trea Turner: wOBA .334 vs league .305 (hitter's edge).Slider 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Trea Turner's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Trea Turner's last 40 balls in playHit (10)Out (30)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 95.4 mph at 5°Out: 91.0 mph at 56°Out: 81.6 mph at 35°Out: 87.8 mph at -22°Out: 91.6 mph at 59°Out: 107.4 mph at 6°Out: 93.1 mph at 32°Out: 81.4 mph at 1°Out: 78.5 mph at -33°Out: 79.2 mph at 70°Out: 105.7 mph at -7°Out: 92.0 mph at -32°Single: 108.3 mph at 6°Double: 108.7 mph at 2°Single: 96.3 mph at 10°Out: 84.5 mph at 6°Single: 87.6 mph at 11°Out: 42.7 mph at -60°Single: 102.0 mph at 13°Out: 95.4 mph at 15°Out: 97.6 mph at 39°Out: 73.0 mph at -33°Out: 83.7 mph at -18°Out: 90.3 mph at 27°Out: 82.9 mph at -70°Out: 86.2 mph at 54°Out: 82.9 mph at 67°Single: 98.4 mph at 13°Out: 83.2 mph at 84°Out: 92.5 mph at 21°Single: 77.5 mph at 8°Single: 73.0 mph at 40°Out: 69.8 mph at -33°Out: 93.5 mph at -12°Single: 76.2 mph at -49°Out: 97.6 mph at 30°Out: 68.8 mph at -38°Out: 88.5 mph at 47°Out: 80.3 mph at 75°Out: 93.4 mph at 20°
28% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot25% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.2%62.4%+4.8
2+ total bases40.6%35.8%+4.8
Home run12.1%9.5%+2.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+4.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
+4.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+1.2
Home run
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Trea Turner hits
Where they meet

.279 xwOBA for Trea Turner in the spots Nick Martinez throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .307 (-28 points). His best spot against righties is up-middle, and Nick Martinez puts 4% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Nick Martinez · where he throws to right-handed hitters
5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing5%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing4%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing2%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 9% per swing7%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing6%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 5% per swing5%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing6%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing7%11% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing11%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing8%11% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing11%21% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing21%
All · 499 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters9%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%18% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters18%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%
Sinker · 203 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%11% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters11%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%37% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters37%
Cutter · 123 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters4%8% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters8%9% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters9%5% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters5%1% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters1%30% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters30%26% of his Changeup pitches to right-handed hitters26%
Changeup · 96 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%20% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters20%34% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters34%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%
Fastball · 61 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Trea Turner · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .212 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 36 pitches seen.244xwOBA .365 shrunk (raw .434 on 10 PA) · league .307 · 31 pitches seen.365xwOBA .200 shrunk (raw .092 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 30 pitches seen.200xwOBA .353 shrunk (raw .360 on 17 PA) · league .342 · 32 pitches seen.353xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .281 on 24 PA) · league .386 · 51 pitches seen.316xwOBA .271 shrunk (raw .236 on 17 PA) · league .321 · 52 pitches seen.271xwOBA .249 shrunk (raw .148 on 7 PA) · league .308 · 33 pitches seen.249xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .280 on 20 PA) · league .351 · 36 pitches seen.307xwOBA .313 shrunk (raw .326 on 20 PA) · league .292 · 48 pitches seen.313xwOBA .358 shrunk (raw .351 on 30 PA) · league .377 · 120 pitches seen.358xwOBA .256 shrunk (raw .237 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 64 pitches seen.256xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .254 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 49 pitches seen.259xwOBA .211 shrunk (raw .192 on 39 PA) · league .274 · 253 pitches seen.211
vs RHP · 835 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 25% of 28 swings · league 22%25%Whiff 27% of 22 swings · league 20%27%Whiff 18% of 17 swings · league 19%18%Whiff 12% of 25 swings · league 10%12%Whiff 8% of 36 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 21% of 29 swings · league 11%21%Whiff 13% of 23 swings · league 14%13%Whiff 8% of 26 swings · league 13%8%Whiff 22% of 27 swings · league 17%22%Whiff 26% of 55 swings · league 28%26%Whiff 24% of 17 swings · league 24%24%Whiff 30% of 23 swings · league 32%30%Whiff 68% of 78 swings · league 49%68%
vs RHP · 835 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 78% of 36 pitches · league 62%78%Swings at 71% of 31 pitches · league 72%71%Swings at 57% of 30 pitches · league 66%57%Swings at 78% of 32 pitches · league 70%78%Swings at 71% of 51 pitches · league 76%71%Swings at 56% of 52 pitches · league 70%56%Swings at 70% of 33 pitches · league 65%70%Swings at 72% of 36 pitches · league 68%72%Swings at 56% of 48 pitches · league 60%56%Swings at 46% of 120 pitches · league 24%46%Swings at 27% of 64 pitches · league 34%27%Swings at 47% of 49 pitches · league 40%47%Swings at 31% of 253 pitches · league 32%31%
vs RHP · 835 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Trea Turner against each of Nick Martinez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Changeup24%79.3+12″ / +5″.351.32231.4%31.5%92About league average vs these
Sinker21%92.5+14″ / +14″.384.35312.7%13.5%647Hits these better than most
Cutter20%89.2-2″ / +11″.358.32824.6%24.8%405Hits these better than most
Fastball19%92.9+6″ / +18″.376.34618.8%20.5%508Hits these better than most
Curveball12%81.0-1″ / -16″.322.29330.6%26.6%88About league average vs these
Slider5%85.0-1″ / +2″.334.30535.6%31.9%446About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Trea Turner · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G413.182.308.273.273.22323.1%15.4%14.8%90.2108.70.0%25.0%12.5%
Last 15 G1239.273.385.394.353.28515.4%15.4%23.8%87.7108.73.7%22.2%29.6%
Last 30 G2580.208.288.347.295.25023.8%10.0%27.4%87.4108.75.7%32.1%30.2%
90 days66223.255.309.461.339.27121.5%7.2%28.8%86.6110.15.1%34.2%31.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 158 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 20%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.222.222.222.338.32222.2%0.0%37.5%96.7108.30.0%50.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1128.154.214.154.219.29921.4%7.1%31.2%87.5108.30.0%36.8%26.3%
Last 30 G2053.204.264.245.258.32511.3%7.5%24.2%87.2108.34.8%33.3%23.8%
90 days49111.230.306.330.299.37214.4%9.0%19.5%89.8108.36.0%45.8%32.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 83 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 22%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.200.273.250.298.26022.7%9.1%23.3%93.0108.70.0%35.7%7.1%
Last 15 G1567.220.313.288.298.29017.9%11.9%26.5%87.6108.72.2%28.3%28.3%
Last 30 G30133.207.278.306.280.27918.8%9.0%26.2%87.3108.75.3%32.6%27.4%
90 days74334.247.308.418.326.30419.2%7.8%25.6%87.7110.15.4%38.2%31.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 241 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 21%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 13%
Trea Turner · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating35Below average
Last 100 pitches50trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.327 / .301running 26 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball97.195.45.449Single
Sep 25RHPSweeper83.791.056.009Out
Sep 25RHPFastball95.581.635.030Out
Sep 24LHPSinker94.187.8-22.101Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup88.091.659.010Out
Sep 24LHPCurveball81.7107.46.586Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup83.293.132.178Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper82.381.41.224Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper83.378.5-33.066Out
Sep 22LHPChangeup84.779.270.006Out
Sep 22LHPChangeup87.8105.7-7.385Error
Sep 22RHPSinker97.892.0-32.088Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411001
Sep 24400001
Sep 23511001
Sep 22411000
Sep 20512022
Sep 19522020
Sep 18411001
Sep 17500020
Sep 16500011
Sep 15411000

Two strikes

Nick Martinez TB · RHPwith two strikes
Nick Martinez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Sinker33%33%8.2%19.1%17.7%
Fastball14%24%14.3%13.1%18.3%
Changeup24%24%17.0%11.9%18.4%
Cutter24%17%8.8%11.7%18.7%
Slider5%2%0.0%0.0%21.4%
Trea Turner bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Trea Turner with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.0%43.3%
Whiff%20.8%23.5%
Contact%79.2%76.5%
Chase%39.2%39.4%
wOBA.256.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.2%19.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.338
K%19.4%
BB%7.8%
Whiff%12.3%
Barrel%3.7%
Hard-hit%28.0%
Avg EV88.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

220 PA
wOBA.337
xwOBA vs this mix.278against pitches like his
RV/1000.57
Hard-hit%25.1%
K%21.8%
BB%7.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Nick MartinezRHP · TB vs PHI
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 21.8 batters over 5.0 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 55.5%55%≤34 strikeouts: 18.5%19%45 strikeouts: 12.7%13%56 strikeouts: 7.3%7%67 strikeouts: 3.6%4%78 strikeouts: 1.5%2%89+ strikeouts: 0.9%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.7%
BB%2.5%
Whiff%7.8%
Velo87.7
BTB Stuff92
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Sinker33%9992.24.8%
Cutter24%8789.05.4%
Changeup24%9877.912.5%
Fastball14%7892.68.8%
Slider5%8284.316.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 229429%10%17%.277
Sep 167216%6%21%.353
Sep 106815%7%20%.090

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Nick Martinez TB · RHPvsPHI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Trea Turner: every projection we've made →