MLBengine v14
← TB at PHI, Sep 27, 2026
2:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · lineup projected
Hitter · TB · batting 1Yandy Díaz
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerCold
.311wOBA vs RHP.294xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · PHIZack Wheeler
Throws rightBTB Stuff 100Trending Up
6.8projected K34%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Zack Wheeler's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 41% usage, 95.9 mph, +8.9″ arm side, +15.2″ rise. Yandy Díaz: wOBA .372 vs league .336 (hitter's edge).Fastball 41%Sinker: 18% usage, 95.4 mph, +16.6″ arm side, +8.6″ rise. Yandy Díaz: wOBA .377 vs league .342 (hitter's edge).Sinker 18%Cutter: 16% usage, 91.2 mph, -2.0″ arm side, +7.0″ rise. Yandy Díaz: wOBA .346 vs league .310 (hitter's edge).Cutter 16%Curveball: 10% usage, 81.2 mph, -10.1″ arm side, -10.7″ rise. Yandy Díaz: wOBA .320 vs league .282 (hitter's edge).Curveball 10%Sweeper: 9% usage, 83.8 mph, -13.7″ arm side, +1.9″ rise. Yandy Díaz: wOBA .305 vs league .267 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 9%Splitter: 5% usage, 87.1 mph, +14.0″ arm side, +3.5″ rise. Yandy Díaz: wOBA .341 vs league .305 (hitter's edge).Splitter 5%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Yandy Díaz's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Yandy Díaz's last 40 balls in playHit (6)Out (34)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 77.5 mph at 5°Out: 100.6 mph at -23°Out: 99.8 mph at -36°Out: 104.7 mph at -33°Single: 70.8 mph at 25°Single: 97.0 mph at 14°Out: 90.9 mph at 42°Out: 92.7 mph at -33°Out: 77.9 mph at 48°Out: 65.5 mph at 39°Out: 100.2 mph at 28°Out: 82.0 mph at -11°Single: 102.0 mph at 9°Single: 101.1 mph at -8°Out: 69.8 mph at 0°Out: 81.8 mph at -36°Out: 96.4 mph at 23°Out: 86.8 mph at 36°Out: 99.9 mph at -16°Out: 75.2 mph at -27°Out: 82.6 mph at 27°Out: 90.8 mph at -9°Out: 92.0 mph at 52°Out: 75.6 mph at -12°Out: 51.3 mph at -58°Out: 101.3 mph at 27°Out: 102.2 mph at -4°Out: 106.3 mph at 0°Out: 79.6 mph at -36°Out: 96.7 mph at 26°Single: 111.5 mph at 2°Out: 74.1 mph at -47°Out: 89.0 mph at 26°Out: 98.0 mph at 53°Single: 101.1 mph at -6°Out: 88.1 mph at 33°Out: 71.3 mph at -47°Out: 105.9 mph at -16°Out: 88.6 mph at 39°Out: 90.2 mph at 51°
43% hit 95+ mph23% in the sweet spot15% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.9%66.6%-2.8
2+ total bases37.9%40.1%-2.2
Home run11.4%11.8%-0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-3.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
+0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
-3.0
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.7
Home run
Starter
-1.1
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
+0.6

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Yandy Díaz hits
Where they meet

.277 xwOBA for Yandy Díaz in the spots Zack Wheeler throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .303 (-26 points). His best spot against righties is middle, and Zack Wheeler puts 5% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Zack Wheeler · where he throws to right-handed hitters
3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 31% per swing3%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing3%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing2%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 16% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 29% per swing5%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing7%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 11% per swing5%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing5%12% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 19% per swing12%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing6%20% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 32% per swing20%23% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 67% per swing23%
All · 590 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%14% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters14%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters3%21% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters21%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%38% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters38%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%
Sinker · 191 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters8%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters4%14% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters14%20% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters20%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%
Fastball · 166 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%7% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters7%5% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters3%8% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters8%9% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters9%2% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters2%1% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters6%53% of his Sweeper pitches to right-handed hitters53%
Sweeper · 159 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters57% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters57%29% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters29%
Splitter · 58 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Yandy Díaz · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .227 shrunk (raw .084 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 37 pitches seen.227xwOBA .338 shrunk (raw .413 on 5 PA) · league .307 · 32 pitches seen.338xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .265 on 10 PA) · league .263 · 39 pitches seen.264xwOBA .363 shrunk (raw .373 on 25 PA) · league .342 · 53 pitches seen.363xwOBA .452 shrunk (raw .509 on 14 PA) · league .386 · 68 pitches seen.452xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw .298 on 15 PA) · league .321 · 60 pitches seen.308xwOBA .367 shrunk (raw .400 on 21 PA) · league .308 · 37 pitches seen.367xwOBA .374 shrunk (raw .384 on 26 PA) · league .351 · 47 pitches seen.374xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .219 on 26 PA) · league .292 · 60 pitches seen.242xwOBA .271 shrunk (raw .230 on 31 PA) · league .377 · 142 pitches seen.271xwOBA .222 shrunk (raw .133 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 55 pitches seen.222xwOBA .204 shrunk (raw .150 on 13 PA) · league .263 · 80 pitches seen.204xwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .254 on 45 PA) · league .274 · 208 pitches seen.258
vs RHP · 918 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 25% of 20 swings · league 22%25%Whiff 17% of 24 swings · league 20%17%Whiff 19% of 26 swings · league 19%19%Whiff 11% of 46 swings · league 10%11%Whiff 12% of 41 swings · league 9%12%Whiff 15% of 46 swings · league 11%15%Whiff 4% of 24 swings · league 14%4%Whiff 0% of 32 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 3% of 38 swings · league 17%3%Whiff 14% of 52 swings · league 28%14%Whiff 12% of 17 swings · league 24%12%Whiff 26% of 31 swings · league 32%26%Whiff 23% of 64 swings · league 49%23%
vs RHP · 918 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 54% of 37 pitches · league 62%54%Swings at 75% of 32 pitches · league 72%75%Swings at 67% of 39 pitches · league 66%67%Swings at 87% of 53 pitches · league 70%87%Swings at 60% of 68 pitches · league 76%60%Swings at 77% of 60 pitches · league 70%77%Swings at 65% of 37 pitches · league 65%65%Swings at 68% of 47 pitches · league 68%68%Swings at 63% of 60 pitches · league 60%63%Swings at 37% of 142 pitches · league 24%37%Swings at 31% of 55 pitches · league 34%31%Swings at 39% of 80 pitches · league 40%39%Swings at 31% of 208 pitches · league 32%31%
vs RHP · 918 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Yandy Díaz against each of Zack Wheeler's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball41%95.9+9″ / +15″.372.33615.7%19.6%543Hits these better than most
Sinker18%95.4+17″ / +9″.377.3428.5%11.9%490Hits these better than most
Cutter16%91.2-2″ / +7″.346.31021.6%28.9%318Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Curveball10%81.2-10″ / -11″.320.28218.8%32.8%152Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Sweeper9%83.8-14″ / +2″.305.26720.2%34.3%281Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Splitter5%87.1+14″ / +4″.341.30517.2%33.4%140Hits these better than most; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Yandy Díaz · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.500.556.500.478.4020.0%11.1%12.5%92.0102.00.0%50.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1440.237.250.342.256.23120.0%2.5%16.7%90.0111.56.5%41.9%25.8%
Last 30 G2789.259.281.365.283.26116.9%3.4%14.4%90.7111.55.6%46.5%28.2%
90 days71243.260.292.370.310.29518.5%4.5%14.1%90.6113.15.4%48.1%30.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 185 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 20%Fly ball 15%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G413.000.077.000.054.23115.4%7.7%5.0%86.1104.710.0%40.0%20.0%
Last 15 G1127.042.148.042.111.24711.1%11.1%8.0%89.5108.24.8%47.6%23.8%
Last 30 G1747.175.298.275.268.4148.5%14.9%9.1%91.4108.211.1%55.6%33.3%
90 days42101.222.307.389.309.4007.9%10.9%9.6%91.9113.08.5%51.2%31.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 82 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 17%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G522.200.273.200.227.3019.1%9.1%8.3%88.8104.75.6%44.4%27.8%
Last 15 G1567.161.209.226.198.23816.4%6.0%13.3%89.8111.55.8%44.2%25.0%
Last 30 G30136.232.287.336.278.31214.0%7.4%12.5%90.9111.57.5%49.5%29.9%
90 days76344.249.297.375.310.32615.4%6.4%12.9%91.0113.16.4%49.1%30.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 267 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 19%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 8%
Yandy Díaz · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating74Above average
Last 100 pitches39trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.306 / .340running 34 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPChangeup88.777.55.214Out
Sep 25LHPSinker95.6100.6-23.110Out
Sep 25RHPSplitter97.699.8-36.058Out
Sep 25LHPSinker95.8104.7-33.084Out
Sep 24RHPCutter93.370.825.890Single
Sep 24RHPCutter88.697.014.863Single
Sep 24RHPCutter86.190.942.018Out
Sep 24RHPCutter94.692.7-33.058Out
Sep 22LHPFastball95.477.948.067Out
Sep 22LHPCurveball75.365.539.473Out
Sep 22LHPSinker92.3100.228.939Out
Sep 22RHPSplitter91.482.0-11.077Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400000
Sep 24522010
Sep 22400002
Sep 22522000
Sep 20400010
Sep 18500021
Sep 17500002
Sep 16400000
Sep 15400001
Sep 13522000

Two strikes

Zack Wheeler PHI · RHPwith two strikes
Zack Wheeler with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball35%36%27.1%21.4%18.3%
Splitter18%23%39.7%26.9%21.3%
Curveball9%15%46.7%29.2%20.7%
Sweeper13%11%30.8%21.2%20.7%
Sinker15%11%3.6%19.6%17.7%
Cutter10%5%16.7%31.8%18.7%
Yandy Díaz bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Yandy Díaz with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%33.2%43.3%
Whiff%17.6%23.5%
Contact%82.4%76.5%
Chase%38.2%39.4%
wOBA.266.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes18.7%24.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.326
K%15.8%
BB%6.7%
Whiff%7.0%
Barrel%5.1%
Hard-hit%37.2%
Avg EV91.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

241 PA
wOBA.311
xwOBA vs this mix.294against pitches like his
RV/1000.03
Hard-hit%35.0%
K%18.8%
BB%6.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Zack WheelerRHP · PHI vs TB
6.8projected strikeouts · likely 4 to 10 · 23.4 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 9.7%10%≤34 strikeouts: 10.1%10%45 strikeouts: 13.6%14%56 strikeouts: 15.2%15%67 strikeouts: 14.7%15%78 strikeouts: 12.4%12%89+ strikeouts: 24.3%24%9+book 6.5
Over 6.5: 51% (red bars) · under: 49%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%33.7%
BB%8.3%
Whiff%16.1%
Velo90.1
BTB Stuff100
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball35%11095.114.3%
Splitter18%8387.425.5%
Sinker15%9794.86.6%
Sweeper13%9181.316.9%
Cutter10%11290.710.9%
Curveball9%10480.025.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 2210148%21%9%.226
Sep 169120%14%32%.186
Sep 1011033%16%22%.231

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Zack Wheeler PHI · RHPvsTB lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTB @ PHI →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Yandy Díaz: every projection we've made →