MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup projected
Hitter · TEX · batting 1Brandon Nimmo
Bats leftTalent grade BPowerCold
.256wOBA vs RHP.264xwOBA vs his mix4.0expected PA
Starter · MINDean Kremer
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
4.5projected K22%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Dean Kremer's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 33% usage, 93.6 mph, +8.4″ arm side, +17.5″ rise. Brandon Nimmo: wOBA .374 vs league .359 (hitter's edge).Fastball 33%Cutter: 23% usage, 87.6 mph, -4.8″ arm side, +7.1″ rise. Brandon Nimmo: wOBA .357 vs league .342 (about even).Cutter 23%Sinker: 14% usage, 92.3 mph, +15.1″ arm side, +11.6″ rise. Brandon Nimmo: wOBA .376 vs league .361 (hitter's edge).Sinker 14%Curveball: 12% usage, 77.2 mph, -8.6″ arm side, -13.7″ rise. Brandon Nimmo: wOBA .312 vs league .296 (hitter's edge).Curveball 12%Splitter: 11% usage, 82.6 mph, +10.4″ arm side, +9.4″ rise. Brandon Nimmo: wOBA .313 vs league .296 (hitter's edge).Splitter 11%Changeup: 6% usage, 84.5 mph, +15.4″ arm side, +3.5″ rise. Brandon Nimmo: wOBA .315 vs league .299 (hitter's edge).Changeup 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Brandon Nimmo's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Brandon Nimmo's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 96.1 mph at 21°Out: 91.3 mph at 73°Out: 100.6 mph at 37°Single: 100.8 mph at 5°Out: 92.3 mph at -21°Single: 70.3 mph at 33°Single: 99.9 mph at 14°Out: 67.2 mph at 5°Single: 88.3 mph at 15°Out: 78.4 mph at 35°Out: 91.2 mph at -7°Out: 93.2 mph at -20°Out: 89.2 mph at -10°Out: 62.9 mph at -35°Out: 84.9 mph at -35°Double: 105.3 mph at 8°Out: 88.4 mph at 47°Single: 106.3 mph at 12°Single: 75.9 mph at 36°Single: 102.5 mph at -3°Out: 80.8 mph at 44°Double: 100.1 mph at 10°Double: 92.3 mph at 26°Out: 97.3 mph at -17°Out: 100.3 mph at -6°Out: 66.0 mph at -13°Out: 73.2 mph at -8°Single: 106.5 mph at 3°Out: 60.7 mph at -34°Single: 104.5 mph at 10°Out: 86.0 mph at 30°Out: 99.9 mph at -9°Out: 74.6 mph at -19°Single: 96.3 mph at 12°Out: 104.9 mph at -30°Out: 95.1 mph at 19°Out: 102.4 mph at -6°Out: 96.0 mph at 39°Out: 75.3 mph at -38°Out: 97.8 mph at 45°
48% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit63.4%61.5%+1.9
2+ total bases39.9%37.4%+2.5
Home run12.5%9.9%+2.5
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.9
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.2
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.8
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.0
Home run
Starter
+3.3
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-0.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Brandon Nimmo hits
Where they meet

.287 xwOBA for Brandon Nimmo in the spots Dean Kremer throws to lefties

The average hitter in those same spots: .314 (-27 points). His best spot against righties is down-right, and Dean Kremer puts 3% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Dean Kremer · where he throws to left-handed hitters
6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 7% per swing6%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 6% per swing4%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 10% per swing2%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 16% per swing8%6% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing6%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 13% per swing3%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing5%5% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing5%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing3%21% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing21%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing3%17% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing17%17% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 57% per swing17%
All · 692 pitches · catcher's view
10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%6% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters6%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%10% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters10%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%3% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters3%31% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters31%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%
Fastball · 243 pitches · catcher's view
7% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters2%0% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters6% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters6%4% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters4%1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%7% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters7%6% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters6%1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%17% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters17%1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%32% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters32%17% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters17%
Splitter · 214 pitches · catcher's view
5% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters5%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%6% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters6%7% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters7%4% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters4%17% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters17%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters22% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters22%24% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters24%
Curveball · 100 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters1%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%1% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters1%12% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters12%11% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters11%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%3% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters3%22% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters22%1% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters1%21% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters21%6% of his Sinker pitches to left-handed hitters6%
Sinker · 73 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%5% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters5%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters14% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters14%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters7%0% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters61% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters61%
Cutter · 57 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Brandon Nimmo · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .236 shrunk (raw .122 on 4 PA) · league .274 · 42 pitches seen.236xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .182 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 49 pitches seen.253xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .280 on 8 PA) · league .263 · 22 pitches seen.270xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .228 on 19 PA) · league .342 · 52 pitches seen.272xwOBA .359 shrunk (raw .341 on 18 PA) · league .386 · 45 pitches seen.359xwOBA .262 shrunk (raw .183 on 9 PA) · league .321 · 43 pitches seen.262xwOBA .312 shrunk (raw .317 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 28 pitches seen.312xwOBA .299 shrunk (raw .254 on 14 PA) · league .351 · 41 pitches seen.299xwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .362 on 16 PA) · league .292 · 38 pitches seen.332xwOBA .352 shrunk (raw .328 on 13 PA) · league .377 · 99 pitches seen.352xwOBA .212 shrunk (raw .154 on 13 PA) · league .274 · 65 pitches seen.212xwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .245 on 20 PA) · league .263 · 101 pitches seen.252xwOBA .252 shrunk (raw .243 on 28 PA) · league .274 · 150 pitches seen.252
vs RHP · 775 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 19% of 32 swings · league 22%19%Whiff 22% of 41 swings · league 20%22%Whiff 11% of 19 swings · league 19%11%Whiff 22% of 37 swings · league 10%22%Whiff 3% of 37 swings · league 9%3%Whiff 18% of 33 swings · league 11%18%Whiff 5% of 21 swings · league 14%5%Whiff 16% of 32 swings · league 13%16%Whiff 33% of 27 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 39% of 23 swings · league 28%39%Whiff 16% of 25 swings · league 24%16%Whiff 24% of 29 swings · league 32%24%Whiff 56% of 48 swings · league 49%56%
vs RHP · 775 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 76% of 42 pitches · league 62%76%Swings at 84% of 49 pitches · league 72%84%Swings at 86% of 22 pitches · league 66%86%Swings at 71% of 52 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 82% of 45 pitches · league 76%82%Swings at 77% of 43 pitches · league 70%77%Swings at 75% of 28 pitches · league 65%75%Swings at 78% of 41 pitches · league 68%78%Swings at 71% of 38 pitches · league 60%71%Swings at 23% of 99 pitches · league 24%23%Swings at 39% of 65 pitches · league 34%39%Swings at 29% of 101 pitches · league 40%29%Swings at 32% of 150 pitches · league 32%32%
vs RHP · 775 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Brandon Nimmo against each of Dean Kremer's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball33%93.6+8″ / +18″.374.35915.1%17.7%721About league average vs these
Cutter23%87.6-5″ / +7″.357.34219.8%22.8%345About league average vs these
Sinker14%92.3+15″ / +12″.376.36112.7%15.0%667About league average vs these
Curveball12%77.2-9″ / -14″.312.29623.6%25.7%112About league average vs these
Splitter11%82.6+10″ / +9″.313.29625.3%28.5%120About league average vs these
Changeup6%84.5+15″ / +4″.315.29924.5%27.8%266About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Brandon Nimmo · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G411.273.273.364.277.23545.5%0.0%25.0%88.6100.80.0%50.0%33.3%
Last 15 G1136.152.222.242.213.18947.2%8.3%36.4%88.9100.80.0%43.8%25.0%
Last 30 G2375.149.240.254.231.25133.3%9.3%27.9%92.0110.64.9%51.2%26.8%
90 days61182.171.253.280.244.26229.1%9.3%23.3%91.6110.63.6%49.1%30.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 110 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 22%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.286.375.286.312.29237.5%12.5%41.2%88.499.90.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G1026.333.385.375.344.26630.8%7.7%39.2%89.4106.50.0%37.5%31.2%
Last 30 G2053.354.377.417.355.29122.6%5.7%31.1%91.3107.82.7%43.2%35.1%
90 days49115.387.417.547.436.34919.1%6.1%23.4%90.9108.14.7%45.9%38.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 85 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 22%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.278.316.333.292.25942.1%5.3%31.7%88.5100.80.0%40.0%30.0%
Last 15 G1562.228.290.298.268.22140.3%8.1%37.4%89.1106.50.0%40.6%28.1%
Last 30 G30128.235.297.322.282.26728.9%7.8%29.1%91.7110.63.8%47.4%30.8%
90 days72297.256.316.385.319.29525.3%8.1%23.3%91.3110.64.1%47.7%33.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 195 balls in play
Ground 51%Line drive 22%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 6%
Brandon Nimmo · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating33Below average
Last 100 pitches11trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.313 / .300results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSplitter90.096.121.292Double
Sep 24LHPCutter90.891.373.000Out
Sep 23RHPSinker93.6100.637.521Out
Sep 23RHPSinker95.2100.85.593Single
Sep 23LHPSinker95.292.3-21.112Force out
Sep 22LHPSweeper77.370.333.717Single
Sep 22LHPFastball92.299.914.805Single
Sep 22RHPFastball98.267.25.194Out
Sep 19RHPSplitter89.788.315.917Single
Sep 19RHPSplitter91.678.435.067Out
Sep 18RHPChangeup79.491.2-7.220Double play
Sep 18LHPSinker86.393.2-20.114Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25412003
Sep 24300011
Sep 23411001
Sep 22422001
Sep 19411002
Sep 18500021
Sep 17400003
Sep 16412001
Sep 15411002
Sep 13422001

Two strikes

Dean Kremer MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Dean Kremer with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter23%40%32.5%20.7%21.3%
Fastball30%27%15.7%14.6%18.3%
Cutter20%18%31.7%22.1%18.7%
Sinker14%8%5.9%17.2%17.7%
Curveball12%5%0.0%0.0%20.7%
Slider1%2%0.0%0.0%21.4%
Brandon Nimmo bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Brandon Nimmo with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%37.4%41.3%
Whiff%17.7%21.6%
Contact%82.3%78.4%
Chase%32.0%39.4%
wOBA.263.246
Whiff vs his put-away shapes16.8%20.9%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.321
K%25.1%
BB%7.6%
Whiff%12.1%
Barrel%3.4%
Hard-hit%31.5%
Avg EV91.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

179 PA
wOBA.256
xwOBA vs this mix.264against pitches like his
RV/100-1.45
Hard-hit%29.4%
K%28.5%
BB%7.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Dean KremerRHP · MIN vs TEX
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.6 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.8%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.6%13%67 strikeouts: 8.1%8%78 strikeouts: 4.6%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.0%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%22.1%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo86.9
BTB Stuff92
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball30%10292.57.4%
Splitter23%8482.318.6%
Cutter20%10987.015.9%
Sinker14%6791.94.8%
Curveball12%8176.510.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209636%16%18%.168
Sep 149426%14%26%.189
Sep 86915%13%15%.315

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Dean Kremer MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Brandon Nimmo: every projection we've made →