The game
Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.
- Carry
- – vs neutral air
- Weather
- 62°F · Wind in · roof open
- Park factor
- Runs 106 · HR 95 100 = average
Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.
TEX starter not announced yet.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | 96 | 36% | 16% | 18% | .168 |
| Sep 14 | 94 | 26% | 14% | 26% | .189 |
| Sep 8 | 69 | 15% | 13% | 15% | .315 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Pitch-mix battles
each lineup against the starter it faces| Dean Kremer's pitches | TEX lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Fastball | 30% | 92.5 | 102 | 7.4% | 0.55 | .322 | 10.2% | 23.2% | -0.10 |
| Splitter | 23% | 82.3 | 84 | 18.6% | -0.75 | .299 | 13.7% | 29.3% | +0.06 |
| Cutter | 20% | 87.0 | 109 | 15.9% | 0.55 | .322 | 12.7% | 23.0% | -0.34 |
| Sinker | 14% | 91.9 | 67 | 4.8% | -1.20 | .332 | 5.9% | 32.3% | +0.31 |
| Curveball | 12% | 76.5 | 81 | 10.7% | -1.64 | .266 | 15.1% | 23.2% | -0.21 |
Bullpens
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
No one pitched yesterday.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
Two strikes
how each starter finishes hitters| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Splitter | 23% | 40% | 32.5% | 20.7% | 21.3% |
| Fastball | 30% | 27% | 15.7% | 14.6% | 18.3% |
| Cutter | 20% | 18% | 31.7% | 22.1% | 18.7% |
| Sinker | 14% | 8% | 5.9% | 17.2% | 17.7% |
| Curveball | 12% | 5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.7% |
| Slider | 1% | 2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.4% |
Rangers lineup
Projected · facing Dean Kremer RHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Nimmo RF · bats L | 63.4% | 39.9% | 12.5% | 4.0 | +1.9 | .256 | B | Power | Cold |
| 2 | Josh Jung DH · bats R | 66.3% | 40.5% | 12.3% | 3.9 | +1.2 | .330 | A | Power | Normal |
| 3 | Corey Seager SS · bats L | 67.3% | 46.0% | 19.6% | 3.8 | +0.8 | .326 | A | Power | Cold |
| 4 | Wyatt Langford LF · bats R | 53.9% | 33.9% | 13.1% | 3.8 | +2.4 | .343 | C | Balanced | Normal |
| 5 | Ezequiel Duran 3B · bats R | 59.7% | 33.8% | 9.6% | 3.7 | +1.3 | .304 | D | Balanced | Cold |
| 6 | Nicky Lopez 2B · bats L | 54.4% | 26.7% | 3.7% | 3.6 | +1.1 | .312 | F | Balanced | Hot |
| 7 | Jake Burger 1B · bats R | 55.8% | 35.9% | 16.1% | 3.5 | +1.2 | .261 | B | Power | Cold |
| 8 | Evan Carter CF · bats L | 49.0% | 25.9% | 7.1% | 3.4 | +0.7 | .298 | F | Balanced | Normal |
| 9 | Danny Jansen C · bats R | 53.7% | 29.6% | 11.1% | 3.3 | +1.0 | .359 | D | Balanced | Hot |
Twins lineup
Projected · facing TBD| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Keaschall RF · bats R | 66.7% | 37.5% | 8.7% | 4.0 | +0.3 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 2 | Brooks Lee 3B · bats S | 62.3% | 37.5% | 9.7% | 3.9 | +0.2 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 3 | Kody Clemens 2B · bats L | 62.4% | 39.5% | 15.2% | 3.8 | -0.2 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 4 | Josh Bell DH · bats S | 62.6% | 40.7% | 13.7% | 3.8 | +0.1 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 5 | Ryan Jeffers C · bats R | 60.2% | 34.2% | 9.8% | 3.7 | +0.3 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 6 | Walker Jenkins CF · bats L | 59.1% | 34.3% | 10.9% | 3.6 | -0.0 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 7 | Royce Lewis 3B · bats R | 58.5% | 32.9% | 10.2% | 3.5 | +0.3 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 8 | Emmanuel Rodriguez LF · bats L | 55.6% | 32.0% | 11.9% | 3.4 | -0.1 | – | — | — | Normal |
| 9 | Ryan Kreidler SS · bats R | 48.5% | 25.8% | 8.0% | 3.3 | +0.3 | – | — | — | Normal |