MLBengine v14
← TEX at MIN, Sep 27, 2026
2:10 PM CT · Target Field · lineup projected
Hitter · TEX · batting 7Jake Burger
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerCold
.261wOBA vs RHP.278xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · MINDean Kremer
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Up
4.5projected K22%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Dean Kremer's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 33% usage, 93.6 mph, +8.4″ arm side, +17.5″ rise. Jake Burger: wOBA .353 vs league .347 (about even).Fastball 33%Cutter: 23% usage, 87.6 mph, -4.8″ arm side, +7.1″ rise. Jake Burger: wOBA .311 vs league .305 (about even).Cutter 23%Sinker: 14% usage, 92.3 mph, +15.1″ arm side, +11.6″ rise. Jake Burger: wOBA .359 vs league .354 (about even).Sinker 14%Curveball: 12% usage, 77.2 mph, -8.6″ arm side, -13.7″ rise. Jake Burger: wOBA .314 vs league .309 (about even).Curveball 12%Splitter: 11% usage, 82.6 mph, +10.4″ arm side, +9.4″ rise. Jake Burger: wOBA .309 vs league .304 (about even).Splitter 11%Changeup: 6% usage, 84.5 mph, +15.4″ arm side, +3.5″ rise. Jake Burger: wOBA .317 vs league .313 (about even).Changeup 6%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jake Burger's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jake Burger's last 40 balls in playHit (11)Out (29)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 94.3 mph at 36°Out: 71.9 mph at -21°Single: 100.7 mph at -3°Out: 87.1 mph at 43°Out: 81.6 mph at 5°Out: 70.9 mph at -8°Out: 78.4 mph at -7°Out: 94.5 mph at 38°Single: 99.8 mph at -3°Out: 74.6 mph at 50°Out: 93.9 mph at -22°Out: 97.8 mph at 37°Home run: 106.7 mph at 37°Out: 78.7 mph at 44°Out: 105.4 mph at 43°Out: 95.9 mph at 20°Double: 107.1 mph at 25°Out: 107.9 mph at -22°Out: 80.3 mph at -25°Out: 85.8 mph at 9°Single: 85.0 mph at -12°Out: 88.6 mph at -13°Double: 110.2 mph at 18°Out: 92.9 mph at 58°Out: 101.9 mph at -5°Out: 78.9 mph at 76°Out: 90.4 mph at 22°Out: 64.2 mph at 61°Out: 85.6 mph at 65°Single: 71.4 mph at -1°Out: 75.2 mph at -45°Out: 58.6 mph at 6°Out: 91.4 mph at 1°Out: 89.6 mph at -12°Out: 109.6 mph at 16°Home run: 105.1 mph at 25°Home run: 105.7 mph at 26°Home run: 103.9 mph at 26°Single: 86.8 mph at 13°Out: 70.3 mph at 30°
35% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot28% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit55.8%54.7%+1.2
2+ total bases35.9%35.0%+1.0
Home run16.1%15.7%+0.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.5
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.3
Home run
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
0.0
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jake Burger hits
Where they meet

.269 xwOBA for Jake Burger in the spots Dean Kremer throws to righties

The average hitter in those same spots: .298 (-30 points). His best spot against righties is up-middle, and Dean Kremer puts 5% of his pitches there. Context only; the projection reads pitch type, not location.

Dean Kremer · where he throws to right-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing4%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 24% per swing5%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing7%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing7%1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing1%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing5%6% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 39% per swing6%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 60% per swing5%11% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 30% per swing11%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 100% per swing2%42% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 54% per swing42%
All · 525 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters4%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%6% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters1%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters62% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters62%
Cutter · 182 pitches · catcher's view
10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%10% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters10%7% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters7%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%11% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters11%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters1%9% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters9%22% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters22%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters17%
Fastball · 121 pitches · catcher's view
6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters6%1% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters1%7% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters7%13% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters13%11% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters11%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%10% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters10%2% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%5% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters5%27% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters27%
Sinker · 95 pitches · catcher's view
3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters4%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters1% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters1%10% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters10%4% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters1%6% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters6%9% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters9%9% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters9%7% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters7%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%44% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters44%
Splitter · 71 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters2%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters10% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters10%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%2% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters2%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters8%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%6% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters6%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%44% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters44%
Curveball · 50 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Jake Burger · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .393 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 22 pitches seen.322xwOBA .424 shrunk (raw .776 on 4 PA) · league .307 · 26 pitches seen.424xwOBA .201 shrunk (raw .053 on 5 PA) · league .263 · 16 pitches seen.201xwOBA .278 shrunk (raw .218 on 13 PA) · league .342 · 31 pitches seen.278xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .236 on 18 PA) · league .386 · 43 pitches seen.296xwOBA .222 shrunk (raw .152 on 17 PA) · league .321 · 43 pitches seen.222xwOBA .402 shrunk (raw .528 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 25 pitches seen.402xwOBA .369 shrunk (raw .382 on 16 PA) · league .351 · 34 pitches seen.369xwOBA .235 shrunk (raw .160 on 9 PA) · league .292 · 38 pitches seen.235xwOBA .303 shrunk (raw .262 on 22 PA) · league .377 · 79 pitches seen.303xwOBA .250 shrunk (raw .229 on 14 PA) · league .274 · 54 pitches seen.250xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .306 on 14 PA) · league .263 · 57 pitches seen.286xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .231 on 35 PA) · league .274 · 235 pitches seen.242
vs RHP · 703 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 21% of 19 swings · league 22%21%Whiff 17% of 23 swings · league 20%17%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 19%20%Whiff 14% of 29 swings · league 10%14%Whiff 21% of 29 swings · league 9%21%Whiff 11% of 28 swings · league 11%11%Whiff 15% of 13 swings · league 14%15%Whiff 19% of 21 swings · league 13%19%Whiff 29% of 17 swings · league 17%29%Whiff 34% of 44 swings · league 28%34%Whiff 32% of 19 swings · league 24%32%Whiff 38% of 32 swings · league 32%38%Whiff 81% of 63 swings · league 49%81%
vs RHP · 703 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 86% of 22 pitches · league 62%86%Swings at 89% of 26 pitches · league 72%89%Swings at 63% of 16 pitches · league 66%63%Swings at 94% of 31 pitches · league 70%94%Swings at 67% of 43 pitches · league 76%67%Swings at 65% of 43 pitches · league 70%65%Swings at 52% of 25 pitches · league 65%52%Swings at 62% of 34 pitches · league 68%62%Swings at 45% of 38 pitches · league 60%45%Swings at 56% of 79 pitches · league 24%56%Swings at 35% of 54 pitches · league 34%35%Swings at 56% of 57 pitches · league 40%56%Swings at 27% of 235 pitches · league 32%27%
vs RHP · 703 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jake Burger against each of Dean Kremer's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball33%93.6+8″ / +18″.353.34724.3%19.3%360About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Cutter23%87.6-5″ / +7″.311.30535.0%29.3%296About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker14%92.3+15″ / +12″.359.35413.5%11.6%424About league average vs these
Curveball12%77.2-9″ / -14″.314.30934.6%26.9%51About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Splitter11%82.6+10″ / +9″.309.30438.8%31.0%45About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup6%84.5+15″ / +4″.317.31341.1%32.0%100About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jake Burger · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.200.273.500.327.3249.1%9.1%17.6%88.9106.711.1%33.3%0.0%
Last 15 G1336.107.278.214.242.26527.8%19.4%36.2%86.4107.95.3%26.3%10.5%
Last 30 G2874.175.338.263.288.31129.7%20.3%36.9%87.9109.58.1%29.7%24.3%
90 days70184.157.261.277.247.27129.3%11.4%34.0%88.7112.99.3%39.3%22.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 107 balls in play
Ground 44%Line drive 13%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 16%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G48.143.250.143.312.16625.0%12.5%26.7%86.2100.70.0%20.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1025.227.320.455.372.37120.0%12.0%25.6%92.4110.223.5%41.2%29.4%
Last 30 G2248.256.333.674.434.47420.8%10.4%27.6%94.8110.730.3%57.6%33.3%
90 days47104.263.327.568.387.40125.0%8.7%30.8%91.9112.623.2%53.6%34.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 69 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 20%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.176.263.353.321.25815.8%10.5%21.9%87.9106.77.1%28.6%0.0%
Last 15 G1561.160.295.320.295.30824.6%16.4%32.1%89.2110.213.9%33.3%19.4%
Last 30 G30122.210.336.440.345.37526.2%16.4%33.5%91.2110.718.6%42.9%28.6%
90 days73288.197.285.386.298.31827.8%10.4%32.8%89.9112.914.8%44.9%27.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 176 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 16%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 14%
Jake Burger · percentile ranksvs 228 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating60Average
Last 100 pitches85trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.301 / .327running 25 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSweeper79.694.336.163Out
Sep 25RHPSweeper78.571.9-21.047Force out
Sep 25LHPSinker90.9100.7-3.357Single
Sep 24LHPChangeup83.187.143.008Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper81.181.65.312Double play
Sep 24LHPChangeup85.370.9-8.063Out
Sep 24LHPSinker94.078.4-7.077Force out
Sep 23RHPSlider85.394.538.118Out
Sep 23RHPSinker94.899.8-3.327Single
Sep 23RHPSinker96.174.650.073Out
Sep 22LHPFastball93.193.9-22.126Error
Sep 20RHPSlider88.097.837.297Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411010
Sep 24400000
Sep 23311000
Sep 22400003
Sep 20414110
Sep 19400003
Sep 18512021
Sep 17400010
Sep 16523011
Sep 15400011

Two strikes

Dean Kremer MIN · RHPwith two strikes
Dean Kremer with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter23%40%32.5%20.7%21.3%
Fastball30%27%15.7%14.6%18.3%
Cutter20%18%31.7%22.1%18.7%
Sinker14%8%5.9%17.2%17.7%
Curveball12%5%0.0%0.0%20.7%
Slider1%2%0.0%0.0%21.4%
Jake Burger bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jake Burger with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Misses his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%50.9%43.3%
Whiff%30.3%23.5%
Contact%69.7%76.5%
Chase%44.9%39.4%
wOBA.207.235
Whiff vs his put-away shapes29.8%23.1%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.302
K%27.3%
BB%9.2%
Whiff%15.5%
Barrel%9.0%
Hard-hit%27.7%
Avg EV89.8

Against right-handers, last 90 days

180 PA
wOBA.261
xwOBA vs this mix.278against pitches like his
RV/100-1.26
Hard-hit%23.1%
K%28.6%
BB%10.1%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Dean KremerRHP · MIN vs TEX
4.5projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 7 · 21.6 batters over 5.1 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 34.8%35%≤34 strikeouts: 19.0%19%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 12.6%13%67 strikeouts: 8.1%8%78 strikeouts: 4.6%5%89+ strikeouts: 4.0%4%9+book 4.5
Over 4.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%22.1%
BB%9.0%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo86.9
BTB Stuff92
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Fastball30%10292.57.4%
Splitter23%8482.318.6%
Cutter20%10987.015.9%
Sinker14%6791.94.8%
Curveball12%8176.510.7%
Last 3 startsTrending Up
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 209636%16%18%.168
Sep 149426%14%26%.189
Sep 86915%13%15%.315

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Dean Kremer MIN · RHPvsTEX lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.8%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameTEX @ MIN →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jake Burger: every projection we've made →