MLBengine v14
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Nathan Eovaldi

TEX · Starting pitcher · 1 starts projected since Sep 26, 2026, every one frozen before first pitch.

Next start · Sep 26 · 3:10 PM CT
Nathan EovaldiRHP · TEX vs MIN4 days' rest
4.7projected strikeouts · likely 2 to 8 · 23.4 batters over 5.5 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 30.8%31%≤34 strikeouts: 18.3%18%45 strikeouts: 17.3%17%56 strikeouts: 13.6%14%67 strikeouts: 9.2%9%78 strikeouts: 5.5%6%89+ strikeouts: 5.3%5%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 69% (red bars) · under: 31%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%22.1%
BB%5.5%
Whiff%14.0%
Velo86.6
BTB Stuff93
Location101
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff%
Splitter38%11088.616.3%
Curveball26%7276.221.0%
Fastball17%7994.312.1%
Cutter14%10189.59.1%
Sinker3%9693.511.1%
Slider2%9286.911.1%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Aug 7869%9%36%.243
Jul 319419%14%46%.538
Jul 259133%12%17%.156

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

The gameTEX @ MIN →Target Field

The arsenal by shape

how each pitch moves
PitchFamilyUsageVeloHorizontal breakInduced vertical break
FastballHard33%95.6+12.7″+13.6″
SplitterOffspeed26%88.1+13.1″+0.8″
CurveballBreaking18%76.9-9.2″-9.1″
CutterHard16%91.0-1.1″+10.3″
SliderBreaking6%85.7-6.2″+2.2″
Movement in inches, from the pitch-level data. Hitter matchup pages read each hitter against pitches shaped like these.

Where he throws

last 90 days, catcher's view
Nathan Eovaldi · where he throws to right-handed hitters
1% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing1%3% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 43% per swing3%2% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing2%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing4%9% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 4% per swing9%5% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing5%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 17% per swing4%8% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 28% per swing8%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 15% per swing10%4% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing4%7% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 40% per swing7%10% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 37% per swing10%33% of his pitches to right-handed hitters · whiff 64% per swing33%
All · 316 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters1%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters2%7% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters7%8% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters8%0% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters6% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters6%11% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters11%6% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters6%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters3%18% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters18%34% of his Splitter pitches to right-handed hitters34%
Splitter · 109 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%1% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters1%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters3%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters4%7% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters7%11% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters11%5% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters5%0% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters13% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters13%49% of his Curveball pitches to right-handed hitters49%
Curveball · 76 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters12%14% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters14%2% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters2%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%3% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters3%5% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters5%24% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters24%0% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters26% of his Fastball pitches to right-handed hitters26%
Fastball · 58 pitches · catcher's view
0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters7%0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%9% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters9%0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters5%25% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters25%0% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters14% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters14%2% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters2%30% of his Cutter pitches to right-handed hitters30%
Cutter · 44 pitches · catcher's view
8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%20% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters20%28% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters28%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%8% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters8%12% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters12%0% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%4% of his Sinker pitches to right-handed hitters4%
Sinker · 25 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

Nathan Eovaldi · where he throws to left-handed hitters
4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 14% per swing4%2% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 25% per swing2%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 22% per swing4%7% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 20% per swing7%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 8% per swing4%3% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing3%8% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 18% per swing8%10% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 12% per swing10%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 0% per swing4%12% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 27% per swing12%4% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 75% per swing4%18% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 33% per swing18%21% of his pitches to left-handed hitters · whiff 50% per swing21%
All · 362 pitches · catcher's view
1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%6% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters6%4% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters4%0% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters11% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters11%10% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters10%2% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters2%11% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters11%1% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters1%25% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters25%29% of his Splitter pitches to left-handed hitters29%
Splitter · 158 pitches · catcher's view
2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%1% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters1%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%3% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters3%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%2% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters2%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%8% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters8%10% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters10%14% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters14%0% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters18% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters18%29% of his Curveball pitches to left-handed hitters29%
Curveball · 89 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%2% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters2%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%7% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters7%16% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters16%4% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters4%9% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters9%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%11% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters11%5% of his Fastball pitches to left-handed hitters5%
Fastball · 56 pitches · catcher's view
9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%9% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters9%11% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters11%7% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters7%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%7% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters7%2% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters2%17% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters17%19% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters19%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%4% of his Cutter pitches to left-handed hitters4%
Cutter · 54 pitches · catcher's view

Share of his pitches in each spot; darker is more. Last 90 days.

The lineup he faces

Nathan Eovaldi TEX · RHPvsMIN lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 21.7%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

Two strikes

how he finishes hitters
Nathan Eovaldi TEX · RHPwith two strikes
Nathan Eovaldi with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Splitter39%48%24.2%20.9%21.3%
Curveball24%27%32.3%19.2%20.7%
Fastball17%14%35.3%30.8%18.3%
Cutter14%11%16.7%15.0%18.7%
Slider1%1%–0.0%21.4%

Predicted vs what happened

Strikeouts–BTB expected – over 0 starts
BTB's side at the line–over or under the book's line

A few starts say little about the model; the market-level record is on the record.

DateOpponentProjected KBook lineBTB overBook overStrikeouts
Sep 26MIN4.83.569.7%47.4%not settled
Projection as served and frozen before first pitch; book probability de-vigged at the open.