MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · ARI · batting 5Corbin Carroll
Bats leftTalent grade APowerHot
.295wOBA vs RHP.315xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · SDCasey Mize
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Down
3.5projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Casey Mize's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 93.2 mph, +9.0″ arm side, +17.9″ rise. Corbin Carroll: wOBA .340 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 36%Slider: 30% usage, 87.3 mph, -4.0″ arm side, +4.9″ rise. Corbin Carroll: wOBA .337 vs league .352 (about even).Slider 30%Splitter: 22% usage, 87.7 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Corbin Carroll: wOBA .268 vs league .283 (about even).Splitter 22%Sinker: 8% usage, 93.6 mph, +13.2″ arm side, +14.6″ rise. Corbin Carroll: wOBA .341 vs league .356 (about even).Sinker 8%Sweeper: 4% usage, 80.9 mph, -14.2″ arm side, -8.2″ rise. Corbin Carroll: wOBA .291 vs league .306 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Corbin Carroll's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Corbin Carroll's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 91.4 mph at 69°Out: 99.2 mph at -12°Out: 93.0 mph at 24°Out: 83.3 mph at 53°Single: 85.7 mph at 7°Out: 80.5 mph at -12°Out: 82.2 mph at 28°Triple: 95.6 mph at -3°Out: 94.9 mph at 22°Out: 102.8 mph at -5°Out: 105.7 mph at 21°Out: 100.1 mph at -11°Double: 102.2 mph at 22°Out: 59.9 mph at 57°Out: 105.6 mph at -16°Single: 102.3 mph at -1°Out: 95.1 mph at 33°Out: 80.2 mph at -22°Home run: 110.7 mph at 25°Out: 79.4 mph at 37°Double: 93.4 mph at 14°Out: 86.0 mph at 71°Out: 73.9 mph at 62°Out: 90.1 mph at -14°Single: 109.0 mph at 11°Out: 101.7 mph at 4°Single: 68.2 mph at 42°Out: 78.6 mph at -46°Out: 102.7 mph at -8°Home run: 108.4 mph at 28°Out: 95.3 mph at -7°Single: 104.8 mph at 11°Out: 99.4 mph at 42°Out: 53.5 mph at -70°Out: 87.4 mph at -25°Home run: 104.0 mph at 31°Out: 89.1 mph at 52°Single: 106.3 mph at 14°Double: 99.6 mph at 33°Out: 104.7 mph at 40°
53% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.4%59.1%+2.3
2+ total bases38.3%36.3%+2.0
Home run16.3%14.4%+1.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.4
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.0
2+ total bases
Starter
+2.1
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.4
Park
+0.2
Home run
Starter
+1.3
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Corbin Carroll hits
Corbin Carroll · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .200 shrunk (raw .089 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 34 pitches seen.200xwOBA .239 shrunk (raw .122 on 7 PA) · league .307 · 40 pitches seen.239xwOBA .187 shrunk (raw .073 on 8 PA) · league .263 · 37 pitches seen.187xwOBA .251 shrunk (raw .130 on 9 PA) · league .342 · 42 pitches seen.251xwOBA .532 shrunk (raw .593 on 29 PA) · league .386 · 72 pitches seen.532xwOBA .218 shrunk (raw .153 on 19 PA) · league .321 · 55 pitches seen.218xwOBA .339 shrunk (raw .358 on 20 PA) · league .308 · 47 pitches seen.339xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .291 on 17 PA) · league .351 · 42 pitches seen.316xwOBA .336 shrunk (raw .377 on 13 PA) · league .292 · 36 pitches seen.336xwOBA .380 shrunk (raw .383 on 14 PA) · league .377 · 143 pitches seen.380xwOBA .260 shrunk (raw .244 on 10 PA) · league .274 · 76 pitches seen.260xwOBA .274 shrunk (raw .278 on 35 PA) · league .263 · 131 pitches seen.274xwOBA .321 shrunk (raw .337 on 35 PA) · league .274 · 157 pitches seen.321
vs RHP · 912 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 62% of 13 swings · league 22%62%Whiff 48% of 23 swings · league 20%48%Whiff 30% of 23 swings · league 19%30%Whiff 35% of 29 swings · league 10%35%Whiff 14% of 57 swings · league 9%14%Whiff 12% of 43 swings · league 11%12%Whiff 7% of 30 swings · league 14%7%Whiff 7% of 27 swings · league 13%7%Whiff 4% of 24 swings · league 17%4%Whiff 57% of 14 swings · league 28%57%Whiff 20% of 20 swings · league 24%20%Whiff 27% of 67 swings · league 32%27%Whiff 25% of 64 swings · league 49%25%
vs RHP · 912 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 38% of 34 pitches · league 62%38%Swings at 57% of 40 pitches · league 72%57%Swings at 62% of 37 pitches · league 66%62%Swings at 69% of 42 pitches · league 70%69%Swings at 79% of 72 pitches · league 76%79%Swings at 78% of 55 pitches · league 70%78%Swings at 64% of 47 pitches · league 65%64%Swings at 64% of 42 pitches · league 68%64%Swings at 67% of 36 pitches · league 60%67%Swings at 10% of 143 pitches · league 24%10%Swings at 26% of 76 pitches · league 34%26%Swings at 51% of 131 pitches · league 40%51%Swings at 41% of 157 pitches · league 32%41%
vs RHP · 912 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Corbin Carroll against each of Casey Mize's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%93.2+9″ / +18″.340.35523.9%16.8%66About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Slider30%87.3-4″ / +5″.337.35220.9%22.9%25About league average vs these
Splitter22%87.7+14″ / +7″.268.28322.2%26.9%35About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker8%93.6+13″ / +15″.341.35624.2%16.9%63About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper4%80.9-14″ / -8″.291.30627.9%30.3%10About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Corbin Carroll · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.231.267.385.293.2076.7%6.7%9.7%89.5105.60.0%33.3%25.0%
Last 15 G1547.220.255.439.292.29127.7%6.4%26.5%92.2110.76.7%46.7%23.3%
Last 30 G2889.195.247.364.262.30224.7%7.9%23.3%91.9110.78.5%40.7%23.7%
90 days71228.183.268.376.288.31722.8%10.5%23.0%92.2112.09.3%47.3%30.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 150 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 13%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 19%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.200.333.400.325.57216.7%16.7%0.0%102.5105.750.0%100.0%50.0%
Last 15 G914.308.357.692.436.54421.4%7.1%14.3%94.1105.730.0%70.0%50.0%
Last 30 G1836.235.278.500.353.42227.8%5.6%25.0%94.8108.820.8%66.7%45.8%
90 days5398.220.347.439.355.35125.5%13.3%22.8%91.9108.810.5%52.6%29.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 57 balls in play
Ground 49%Line drive 25%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.222.286.389.302.3179.5%9.5%8.1%92.8105.712.5%50.0%31.2%
Last 15 G1561.241.279.500.326.35126.2%6.6%24.4%92.6110.712.5%52.5%30.0%
Last 30 G30125.207.256.405.289.33725.6%7.2%23.7%92.8110.712.0%48.2%30.1%
90 days75326.194.291.394.308.32723.6%11.3%23.0%92.1112.09.7%48.8%30.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 207 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 16%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 16%
Corbin Carroll · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating68Above average
Last 100 pitches97trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.310 / .334running 24 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball91.691.469.003Out
Sep 25LHPSlider88.399.2-12.303Out
Sep 25RHPFastball93.193.024.140Sac fly
Sep 25RHPFastball98.883.353.013Out
Sep 24RHPFastball90.985.77.388Single
Sep 24RHPChangeup83.880.5-12.080Out
Sep 23RHPFastball91.982.228.085Out
Sep 23RHPFastball93.895.6-3.335Triple
Sep 23RHPChangeup85.594.922.243Out
Sep 23LHPFastball93.6102.8-5.402Out
Sep 22LHPSinker89.9105.7211.271Out
Sep 22RHPFastball93.4100.1-11.277Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25500001
Sep 24411011
Sep 23413000
Sep 22412000
Sep 20411010
Sep 19400012
Sep 18426100
Sep 16400002
Sep 15511011
Sep 14525101

Two strikes

Casey Mize SD · RHPwith two strikes
Casey Mize with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%38%10.1%15.1%18.0%
Splitter22%32%27.9%16.5%19.0%
Slider30%18%17.6%13.3%21.1%
Sweeper4%9%16.7%10.0%19.3%
Sinker8%3%30.0%27.3%17.0%
Corbin Carroll bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Corbin Carroll with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.4%41.0%
Whiff%21.5%21.3%
Contact%78.5%78.7%
Chase%38.7%39.6%
wOBA.236.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.8%20.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.329
K%23.7%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%10.4%
Barrel%6.5%
Hard-hit%30.7%
Avg EV91.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

230 PA
wOBA.295
xwOBA vs this mix.315against pitches like his
RV/100-0.75
Hard-hit%30.5%
K%23.2%
BB%11.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Casey MizeRHP · SD vs ARI
3.5projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 21.0 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 53.9%54%≤34 strikeouts: 18.7%19%45 strikeouts: 13.2%13%56 strikeouts: 7.6%8%67 strikeouts: 3.9%4%78 strikeouts: 1.7%2%89+ strikeouts: 1.0%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.1%
BB%7.4%
Whiff%8.4%
Velo89.7
BTB Stuff92
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball35%10193.25.5%
Slider29%9087.37.8%
Splitter22%8087.815.2%
Sinker8%9493.78.8%
Sweeper4%8981.04.2%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 197411%8%17%.568
Sep 14750%3%25%.417
Sep 89032%14%46%.293

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Casey Mize SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Corbin Carroll: every projection we've made →