MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · ARI · batting 4Geraldo Perdomo
Switch hitterTalent grade AContactHot
.355wOBA vs RHP.331xwOBA vs his mix3.8expected PA
Starter · SDCasey Mize
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Down
3.5projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Casey Mize's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 93.2 mph, +9.0″ arm side, +17.9″ rise. Geraldo Perdomo: wOBA .366 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 36%Slider: 30% usage, 87.3 mph, -4.0″ arm side, +4.9″ rise. Geraldo Perdomo: wOBA .364 vs league .352 (about even).Slider 30%Splitter: 22% usage, 87.7 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Geraldo Perdomo: wOBA .295 vs league .283 (about even).Splitter 22%Sinker: 8% usage, 93.6 mph, +13.2″ arm side, +14.6″ rise. Geraldo Perdomo: wOBA .367 vs league .356 (about even).Sinker 8%Sweeper: 4% usage, 80.9 mph, -14.2″ arm side, -8.2″ rise. Geraldo Perdomo: wOBA .317 vs league .306 (about even).Sweeper 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Geraldo Perdomo's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Geraldo Perdomo's last 40 balls in playHit (19)Out (21)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Double: 102.8 mph at 23°Out: 99.9 mph at 29°Triple: 99.8 mph at 11°Single: 82.6 mph at 62°Single: 97.3 mph at 10°Triple: 101.4 mph at 26°Out: 98.2 mph at 21°Out: 90.2 mph at -17°Out: 98.8 mph at -23°Out: 87.6 mph at 26°Out: 95.4 mph at 32°Single: 101.1 mph at -25°Single: 100.3 mph at 12°Single: 104.3 mph at 10°Out: 82.2 mph at -31°Single: 100.5 mph at 5°Triple: 103.5 mph at 18°Single: 27.1 mph at 34°Out: 99.0 mph at 41°Out: 89.0 mph at 48°Out: 72.3 mph at 50°Single: 83.3 mph at 16°Single: 101.5 mph at 10°Single: 101.6 mph at 14°Out: 90.1 mph at -36°Out: 51.2 mph at 36°Single: 86.9 mph at 15°Out: 56.4 mph at 26°Out: 19.6 mph at 48°Single: 98.9 mph at 16°Single: 80.0 mph at 11°Single: 44.8 mph at -46°Out: 74.9 mph at 42°Out: 85.2 mph at 27°Out: 92.1 mph at 21°Single: 101.7 mph at 15°Out: 76.0 mph at 1°Out: 93.8 mph at -25°Out: 81.7 mph at 43°Out: 97.9 mph at 16°
48% hit 95+ mph55% in the sweet spot48% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit66.7%64.9%+1.8
2+ total bases36.0%34.3%+1.6
Home run6.8%6.0%+0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.4
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Geraldo Perdomo hits
Geraldo Perdomo · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .241 shrunk (raw .215 on 15 PA) · league .274 · 50 pitches seen.241xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .159 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 43 pitches seen.244xwOBA .318 shrunk (raw .391 on 9 PA) · league .263 · 32 pitches seen.318xwOBA .362 shrunk (raw .380 on 14 PA) · league .342 · 66 pitches seen.362xwOBA .348 shrunk (raw .328 on 23 PA) · league .386 · 75 pitches seen.348xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .323 on 26 PA) · league .321 · 65 pitches seen.322xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .271 on 18 PA) · league .308 · 57 pitches seen.286xwOBA .341 shrunk (raw .335 on 19 PA) · league .351 · 65 pitches seen.341xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .203 on 14 PA) · league .292 · 45 pitches seen.244xwOBA .352 shrunk (raw .335 on 17 PA) · league .377 · 144 pitches seen.352xwOBA .365 shrunk (raw .502 on 8 PA) · league .274 · 60 pitches seen.365xwOBA .388 shrunk (raw .435 on 32 PA) · league .263 · 147 pitches seen.388xwOBA .354 shrunk (raw .382 on 34 PA) · league .274 · 205 pitches seen.354
vs RHP · 1054 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 28% of 25 swings · league 22%28%Whiff 12% of 26 swings · league 20%12%Whiff 9% of 23 swings · league 19%9%Whiff 7% of 30 swings · league 10%7%Whiff 4% of 47 swings · league 9%4%Whiff 2% of 41 swings · league 11%2%Whiff 7% of 29 swings · league 14%7%Whiff 0% of 35 swings · league 13%0%Whiff 17% of 23 swings · league 17%17%Whiff 38% of 16 swings · league 28%38%Whiff 13% of 16 swings · league 24%13%Whiff 11% of 47 swings · league 32%11%Whiff 27% of 48 swings · league 49%27%
vs RHP · 1054 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 50% of 50 pitches · league 62%50%Swings at 61% of 43 pitches · league 72%61%Swings at 72% of 32 pitches · league 66%72%Swings at 46% of 66 pitches · league 70%46%Swings at 63% of 75 pitches · league 76%63%Swings at 63% of 65 pitches · league 70%63%Swings at 51% of 57 pitches · league 65%51%Swings at 54% of 65 pitches · league 68%54%Swings at 51% of 45 pitches · league 60%51%Swings at 11% of 144 pitches · league 24%11%Swings at 27% of 60 pitches · league 34%27%Swings at 32% of 147 pitches · league 40%32%Swings at 23% of 205 pitches · league 32%23%
vs RHP · 1054 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Geraldo Perdomo against each of Casey Mize's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%93.2+9″ / +18″.366.35512.5%16.8%57About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider30%87.3-4″ / +5″.364.35213.7%22.9%39About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Splitter22%87.7+14″ / +7″.295.28313.7%26.9%29About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker8%93.6+13″ / +15″.367.35611.9%16.9%63About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper4%80.9-14″ / -8″.317.30618.6%30.3%9About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Geraldo Perdomo · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.500.579.875.633.46515.8%15.8%8.0%96.3104.38.3%75.0%66.7%
Last 15 G1454.372.481.512.455.39316.7%16.7%11.7%84.1104.32.9%42.9%57.1%
Last 30 G2896.338.447.416.409.38315.6%15.6%11.8%84.6104.31.6%37.5%56.2%
90 days71241.264.372.398.360.33713.7%13.7%12.1%86.6104.32.3%31.0%42.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 171 balls in play
Ground 29%Line drive 29%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G46.333.333.500.358.41016.7%0.0%0.0%98.0102.840.0%80.0%60.0%
Last 15 G815.308.333.462.333.2826.7%6.7%0.0%88.9102.815.4%53.8%23.1%
Last 30 G1633.321.375.393.347.3456.1%9.1%0.0%85.1103.07.1%46.4%28.6%
90 days4898.317.400.390.382.31911.2%12.2%6.2%84.7109.92.7%37.3%32.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 75 balls in play
Ground 56%Line drive 16%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 1%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G525.455.520.773.565.45116.0%12.0%5.9%96.8104.317.6%76.5%64.7%
Last 15 G1569.357.448.500.427.36814.5%14.5%8.9%85.4104.36.2%45.8%47.9%
Last 30 G30129.333.429.410.393.37313.2%14.0%8.6%84.7104.33.3%40.2%47.8%
90 days76339.279.380.396.366.33213.0%13.3%10.4%86.0109.92.4%32.9%39.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 246 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 25%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 7%
Geraldo Perdomo · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating77Above average
Last 100 pitches77steady
wOBA / xwOBA.357 / .344results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25LHPSlider91.4102.8231.171Double
Sep 25LHPSinker97.599.929.980Out
Sep 25RHPSplitter87.099.811.860Triple
Sep 24RHPChangeup84.382.662.008Single
Sep 24RHPSinker92.497.310.708Single
Sep 24RHPFastball89.9101.4261.025Triple
Sep 24RHPCutter90.998.221.371Out
Sep 23RHPSinker91.590.2-17.127Out
Sep 23LHPFastball93.698.8-23.106Double play
Sep 22LHPFastball89.887.626.110Out
Sep 22RHPSinker92.495.432.230Out
Sep 22LHPFastball90.6101.1-25.093Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25625020
Sep 24635011
Sep 23400002
Sep 22533000
Sep 20424001
Sep 19411001
Sep 18422010
Sep 16411011
Sep 15511011
Sep 14500022

Two strikes

Casey Mize SD · RHPwith two strikes
Casey Mize with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%38%10.1%15.1%18.0%
Splitter22%32%27.9%16.5%19.0%
Slider30%18%17.6%13.3%21.1%
Sweeper4%9%16.7%10.0%19.3%
Sinker8%3%30.0%27.3%17.0%
Geraldo Perdomo bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Geraldo Perdomo with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%28.9%41.0%
Whiff%13.5%21.3%
Contact%86.5%78.7%
Chase%35.0%39.6%
wOBA.281.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes13.1%20.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAContact type
wOBA.367
K%13.4%
BB%12.5%
Whiff%5.0%
Barrel%1.9%
Hard-hit%23.6%
Avg EV86.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

242 PA
wOBA.355
xwOBA vs this mix.331against pitches like his
RV/1000.80
Hard-hit%22.5%
K%14.6%
BB%12.5%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Casey MizeRHP · SD vs ARI
3.5projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 21.0 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 53.9%54%≤34 strikeouts: 18.7%19%45 strikeouts: 13.2%13%56 strikeouts: 7.6%8%67 strikeouts: 3.9%4%78 strikeouts: 1.7%2%89+ strikeouts: 1.0%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.1%
BB%7.4%
Whiff%8.4%
Velo89.7
BTB Stuff92
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball35%10193.25.5%
Slider29%9087.37.8%
Splitter22%8087.815.2%
Sinker8%9493.78.8%
Sweeper4%8981.04.2%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 197411%8%17%.568
Sep 14750%3%25%.417
Sep 89032%14%46%.293

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Casey Mize SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Geraldo Perdomo: every projection we've made →