MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · SD · batting 5Jackson Merrill
Bats leftTalent grade APowerNormal
.385wOBA vs RHP.395xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · ARIBrandon Pfaadt
Throws rightBTB Stuff 95Stable
3.4projected K16%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Brandon Pfaadt's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 30% usage, 93.1 mph, +6.4″ arm side, +14.8″ rise. Jackson Merrill: wOBA .383 vs league .359 (hitter's edge).Fastball 30%Changeup: 19% usage, 87.1 mph, +15.8″ arm side, +3.2″ rise. Jackson Merrill: wOBA .333 vs league .309 (hitter's edge).Changeup 19%Sinker: 14% usage, 92.9 mph, +16.0″ arm side, +6.7″ rise. Jackson Merrill: wOBA .376 vs league .352 (hitter's edge).Sinker 14%Sweeper: 13% usage, 84.3 mph, -10.8″ arm side, +5.3″ rise. Jackson Merrill: wOBA .346 vs league .321 (hitter's edge).Sweeper 13%Curveball: 12% usage, 82.8 mph, -8.9″ arm side, -11.0″ rise. Jackson Merrill: wOBA .330 vs league .306 (hitter's edge).Curveball 12%Cutter: 11% usage, 90.5 mph, +0.7″ arm side, +8.9″ rise. Jackson Merrill: wOBA .391 vs league .366 (hitter's edge).Cutter 11%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jackson Merrill's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jackson Merrill's last 40 balls in playHit (19)Out (21)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 86.1 mph at -3°Single: 88.3 mph at 18°Double: 110.4 mph at 21°Out: 79.2 mph at 13°Out: 94.9 mph at 23°Out: 78.3 mph at -27°Out: 76.2 mph at -37°Out: 100.9 mph at -2°Out: 79.8 mph at -37°Out: 87.8 mph at 27°Out: 91.1 mph at 27°Out: 106.7 mph at -27°Single: 86.4 mph at -11°Out: 104.2 mph at -8°Single: 99.0 mph at 17°Out: 101.1 mph at 6°Home run: 111.4 mph at 29°Triple: 74.8 mph at 48°Out: 85.4 mph at 11°Out: 91.2 mph at 2°Single: 99.8 mph at 15°Single: 110.6 mph at 8°Single: 96.6 mph at 15°Out: 99.5 mph at 33°Out: 83.9 mph at 26°Single: 104.4 mph at 11°Single: 105.8 mph at 12°Out: 81.2 mph at 34°Single: 111.2 mph at 1°Single: 96.6 mph at 14°Single: 99.4 mph at -20°Out: 94.3 mph at -11°Out: 95.8 mph at 7°Double: 100.4 mph at 29°Out: 103.0 mph at -7°Home run: 102.2 mph at 31°Out: 69.9 mph at -5°Single: 83.3 mph at 7°Single: 109.5 mph at 14°Double: 98.0 mph at 25°
55% hit 95+ mph50% in the sweet spot48% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit73.5%68.4%+5.0
2+ total bases51.0%46.0%+5.0
Home run21.9%19.0%+2.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+3.8
Pitch mix
+1.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+3.2
Pitch mix
+1.5
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.5
Home run
Starter
+0.8
Pitch mix
+0.9
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jackson Merrill hits
Jackson Merrill · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .397 shrunk (raw .520 on 12 PA) · league .274 · 33 pitches seen.397xwOBA .554 shrunk (raw .765 on 14 PA) · league .307 · 38 pitches seen.554xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .353 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 20 pitches seen.296xwOBA .464 shrunk (raw .534 on 21 PA) · league .342 · 58 pitches seen.464xwOBA .399 shrunk (raw .408 on 17 PA) · league .386 · 45 pitches seen.399xwOBA .455 shrunk (raw .570 on 14 PA) · league .321 · 36 pitches seen.455xwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .285 on 13 PA) · league .308 · 49 pitches seen.296xwOBA .509 shrunk (raw .599 on 21 PA) · league .351 · 50 pitches seen.509xwOBA .313 shrunk (raw .338 on 10 PA) · league .292 · 30 pitches seen.313xwOBA .339 shrunk (raw .323 on 28 PA) · league .377 · 167 pitches seen.339xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .362 on 11 PA) · league .274 · 56 pitches seen.316xwOBA .226 shrunk (raw .213 on 35 PA) · league .263 · 163 pitches seen.226xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .319 on 27 PA) · league .274 · 135 pitches seen.305
vs RHP · 880 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 23% of 26 swings · league 22%23%Whiff 20% of 30 swings · league 20%20%Whiff 25% of 16 swings · league 19%25%Whiff 13% of 48 swings · league 10%13%Whiff 13% of 40 swings · league 9%13%Whiff 17% of 30 swings · league 11%17%Whiff 17% of 30 swings · league 14%17%Whiff 18% of 40 swings · league 13%18%Whiff 19% of 21 swings · league 17%19%Whiff 30% of 57 swings · league 28%30%Whiff 31% of 26 swings · league 24%31%Whiff 35% of 69 swings · league 32%35%Whiff 40% of 55 swings · league 49%40%
vs RHP · 880 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 79% of 33 pitches · league 62%79%Swings at 79% of 38 pitches · league 72%79%Swings at 80% of 20 pitches · league 66%80%Swings at 83% of 58 pitches · league 70%83%Swings at 89% of 45 pitches · league 76%89%Swings at 83% of 36 pitches · league 70%83%Swings at 61% of 49 pitches · league 65%61%Swings at 80% of 50 pitches · league 68%80%Swings at 70% of 30 pitches · league 60%70%Swings at 34% of 167 pitches · league 24%34%Swings at 46% of 56 pitches · league 34%46%Swings at 42% of 163 pitches · league 40%42%Swings at 41% of 135 pitches · league 32%41%
vs RHP · 880 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jackson Merrill against each of Brandon Pfaadt's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball30%93.1+6″ / +15″.383.35920.9%15.8%66About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Changeup19%87.1+16″ / +3″.333.30922.6%24.6%33About league average vs these
Sinker14%92.9+16″ / +7″.376.35216.2%12.3%39About league average vs these
Sweeper13%84.3-11″ / +5″.346.32126.9%25.0%17About league average vs these
Curveball12%82.8-9″ / -11″.330.30631.2%29.1%23About league average vs these
Cutter11%90.5+1″ / +9″.391.36624.3%18.5%32About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jackson Merrill · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.200.200.267.203.28020.0%0.0%29.2%90.1110.48.3%25.0%41.7%
Last 15 G1548.391.417.630.468.39125.0%4.2%31.5%94.7111.28.8%52.9%50.0%
Last 30 G2891.321.363.536.395.42120.9%5.5%25.0%96.1112.712.1%57.6%48.5%
90 days74232.291.341.559.395.41221.6%6.5%24.4%93.0112.714.0%51.2%43.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 164 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 27%Fly ball 28%Pop-up 7%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G23.000.000.000.000.15133.3%0.0%16.7%94.3100.90.0%50.0%50.0%
Last 15 G916.312.312.812.462.44318.8%0.0%15.6%94.8111.423.1%61.5%38.5%
Last 30 G1837.257.278.600.396.41318.9%2.7%24.0%90.8111.417.2%48.3%37.9%
90 days4798.295.299.463.338.33326.5%1.0%24.8%92.2111.49.9%50.7%40.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 71 balls in play
Ground 35%Line drive 23%Fly ball 32%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G518.167.167.222.169.25922.2%0.0%26.7%90.7110.47.1%28.6%42.9%
Last 15 G1564.371.391.677.466.40423.4%3.1%27.3%94.7111.412.8%55.3%46.8%
Last 30 G30128.303.339.555.395.41920.3%4.7%24.7%94.5112.713.7%54.7%45.3%
90 days79330.292.328.529.378.38923.0%4.8%24.5%92.8112.712.8%51.1%42.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 235 balls in play
Ground 37%Line drive 26%Fly ball 29%Pop-up 8%
Jackson Merrill · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating97Top tier
Last 100 pitches71trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.372 / .394running 22 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit10/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCutter90.586.1-3.194Out
Sep 25RHPCutter91.488.318.741Single
Sep 24RHPCurveball80.4110.4211.630Double
Sep 24RHPCurveball81.879.213.521Out
Sep 23RHPSinker95.394.923.234Out
Sep 23RHPSplitter89.578.3-27.044Force out
Sep 23RHPSplitter93.076.2-37.077Out
Sep 23LHPCurveball80.2100.9-2.371Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup88.079.8-37.048Out
Sep 22LHPSlider87.887.827.082Out
Sep 22RHPFastball99.791.127.118Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup90.9106.7-27.110Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25211000
Sep 24412002
Sep 23400000
Sep 22400001
Sep 20411001
Sep 19511013
Sep 18414102
Sep 17413001
Sep 16533002
Sep 15422000

Two strikes

Brandon Pfaadt ARI · RHPwith two strikes
Brandon Pfaadt with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball30%34%11.9%11.2%18.0%
Changeup19%21%21.3%14.1%18.6%
Sweeper13%20%25.6%20.5%19.3%
Curveball12%14%26.7%17.3%20.0%
Sinker14%9%7.7%15.2%17.0%
Cutter11%3%25.0%20.0%17.9%
Jackson Merrill bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jackson Merrill with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.0%41.0%
Whiff%22.3%21.3%
Contact%77.7%78.7%
Chase%46.0%39.6%
wOBA.247.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.8%19.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.364
K%23.3%
BB%5.2%
Whiff%13.5%
Barrel%8.8%
Hard-hit%35.2%
Avg EV92.2

Against right-handers, last 90 days

234 PA
wOBA.385
xwOBA vs this mix.395against pitches like his
RV/1001.26
Hard-hit%35.3%
K%22.1%
BB%5.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Brandon PfaadtRHP · ARI vs SD
3.4projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 23.4 batters over 5.4 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 55.0%55%≤34 strikeouts: 18.6%19%45 strikeouts: 12.9%13%56 strikeouts: 7.3%7%67 strikeouts: 3.7%4%78 strikeouts: 1.6%2%89+ strikeouts: 0.9%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 45% (red bars) · under: 55%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%15.6%
BB%3.6%
Whiff%9.4%
Velo89.2
BTB Stuff95
Location109
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball30%9893.15.0%
Changeup19%8287.011.3%
Sinker14%8892.96.4%
Sweeper13%9884.218.7%
Curveball12%10082.710.6%
Cutter11%10990.410.6%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsStable
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 196417%11%17%.239
Sep 129923%17%45%.402
Sep 59715%13%30%.325

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Brandon Pfaadt ARI · RHPvsSD lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

0 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jackson Merrill: every projection we've made →