MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · ARI · batting 8Pavin Smith
Bats leftTalent grade CBalancedHot
.319wOBA vs RHP.320xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · SDCasey Mize
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Down
3.5projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Casey Mize's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 93.2 mph, +9.0″ arm side, +17.9″ rise. Pavin Smith: wOBA .355 vs league .355 (about even).Fastball 36%Slider: 30% usage, 87.3 mph, -4.0″ arm side, +4.9″ rise. Pavin Smith: wOBA .352 vs league .352 (about even).Slider 30%Splitter: 22% usage, 87.7 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Pavin Smith: wOBA .283 vs league .283 (about even).Splitter 22%Sinker: 8% usage, 93.6 mph, +13.2″ arm side, +14.6″ rise. Pavin Smith: wOBA .356 vs league .356 (about even).Sinker 8%Sweeper: 4% usage, 80.9 mph, -14.2″ arm side, -8.2″ rise. Pavin Smith: wOBA .306 vs league .306 (about even).Sweeper 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Pavin Smith's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Pavin Smith's last 38 balls in playHit (11)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 72.6 mph at 48°Double: 101.1 mph at 22°Out: 104.6 mph at -1°Single: 72.2 mph at 43°Out: 96.2 mph at 9°Single: 104.3 mph at 10°Home run: 99.7 mph at 28°Out: 76.7 mph at 66°Single: 103.7 mph at 7°Home run: 109.7 mph at 25°Out: 85.7 mph at 4°Out: 98.6 mph at 41°Out: 105.7 mph at 1°Out: 89.2 mph at 32°Double: 93.9 mph at 0°Out: 87.6 mph at 37°Out: 103.8 mph at 2°Single: 101.9 mph at -9°Out: 72.9 mph at 42°Out: 92.0 mph at 38°Out: 85.6 mph at -1°Out: 97.0 mph at 23°Out: 94.8 mph at 3°Single: 95.1 mph at 18°Out: 107.4 mph at 10°Out: 64.7 mph at -57°Out: 106.1 mph at 10°Out: 78.5 mph at -5°Single: 96.4 mph at 7°Out: 92.0 mph at 45°Out: 93.7 mph at 35°Out: 58.6 mph at -51°Out: 87.3 mph at -14°Out: 73.9 mph at 77°Out: 78.6 mph at 49°Out: 101.6 mph at 40°Double: 82.4 mph at 29°Out: 82.4 mph at 54°
45% hit 95+ mph29% in the sweet spot29% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.0%54.3%+1.7
2+ total bases31.1%29.9%+1.2
Home run11.0%10.1%+0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+2.3
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.6
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.3
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.6
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
+0.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Pavin Smith hits
Pavin Smith · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .305 shrunk (raw .675 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 7 pitches seen.305xwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .244 on 2 PA) · league .307 · 7 pitches seen.298xwOBA .267 shrunk (raw .292 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 9 pitches seen.267xwOBA .366 shrunk (raw .438 on 4 PA) · league .342 · 11 pitches seen.366xwOBA .354 shrunk (raw .278 on 5 PA) · league .386 · 14 pitches seen.354xwOBA .300 shrunk (raw .218 on 3 PA) · league .321 · 6 pitches seen.300xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .308 · 9 pitches seenxwOBA .378 shrunk (raw .423 on 7 PA) · league .351 · 17 pitches seen.378xwOBA .390 shrunk (raw .782 on 3 PA) · league .292 · 9 pitches seen.390xwOBA .322 shrunk (raw .228 on 7 PA) · league .377 · 29 pitches seen.322xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .274 · 15 pitches seen.253xwOBA .244 shrunk (raw .216 on 8 PA) · league .263 · 31 pitches seen.244xwOBA .250 shrunk (raw .202 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 43 pitches seen.250
vs RHP · 207 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 22%33%Whiff 0% of 5 swings · league 20%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 0% of 7 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 50% of 6 swings · league 14%50%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 13%27%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 27% of 11 swings · league 28%27%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 24%33%Whiff 25% of 12 swings · league 32%25%Whiff 43% of 14 swings · league 49%43%
vs RHP · 207 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 43% of 7 pitches · league 62%43%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 72%71%Swings at 22% of 9 pitches · league 66%22%Swings at 64% of 11 pitches · league 70%64%Swings at 86% of 14 pitches · league 76%86%Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 70%67%Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 65%67%Swings at 65% of 17 pitches · league 68%65%Swings at 44% of 9 pitches · league 60%44%Swings at 38% of 29 pitches · league 24%38%Swings at 20% of 15 pitches · league 34%20%Swings at 39% of 31 pitches · league 40%39%Swings at 33% of 43 pitches · league 32%33%
vs RHP · 207 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Pavin Smith against each of Casey Mize's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%93.2+9″ / +18″.355.35514.8%16.8%11About league average vs these
Slider30%87.3-4″ / +5″.352.35223.3%22.9%6Little history vs this shape
Splitter22%87.7+14″ / +7″.283.28328.9%26.9%4Little history vs this shape
Sinker8%93.6+13″ / +15″.356.35615.0%16.9%15About league average vs these
Sweeper4%80.9-14″ / -8″.306.30630.9%30.3%3Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Pavin Smith · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.400.500.800.537.44225.0%16.7%20.0%93.0104.614.3%71.4%57.1%
Last 15 G1538.278.316.500.350.36426.3%5.3%23.7%93.5109.77.7%61.5%34.6%
Last 30 G1849.239.286.435.311.31422.4%6.1%21.3%90.9109.75.7%48.6%28.6%
90 days1849.239.286.435.311.31422.4%6.1%21.3%90.9109.75.7%48.6%28.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 35 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 17%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 GNo plate appearances
Last 15 G44.000.000.000.000.11325.0%0.0%12.5%89.092.00.0%0.0%33.3%
Last 30 G44.000.000.000.000.11325.0%0.0%12.5%89.092.00.0%0.0%33.3%
90 days44.000.000.000.000.11325.0%0.0%12.5%89.092.00.0%0.0%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 3 balls in play
Ground 33%Line drive 0%Fly ball 67%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G512.400.500.800.537.44225.0%16.7%20.0%93.0104.614.3%71.4%57.1%
Last 15 G1542.250.286.450.317.34026.2%4.8%22.6%93.0109.76.9%55.2%34.5%
Last 30 G1853.220.264.400.288.29922.6%5.7%20.6%90.7109.75.3%44.7%28.9%
90 days1853.220.264.400.288.29922.6%5.7%20.6%90.7109.75.3%44.7%28.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 38 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 16%Fly ball 37%Pop-up 8%
FormHot
Contact rating43Below average
Last 100 pitches97trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.302 / .309results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSplitter86.572.648.121Out
Sep 24RHPFastball92.5101.122.675Double
Sep 24RHPFastball92.4104.6-1.440Force out
Sep 24RHPCurveball83.572.243.305Single
Sep 23RHPCutter88.096.29.584Out
Sep 23RHPFastball93.0104.310.839Single
Sep 19RHPCutter89.599.728.939Home run
Sep 18RHPFastball97.876.766.005Out
Sep 16RHPCurveball78.1103.77.597Single
Sep 16RHPSinker94.4109.7251.998Home run
Sep 16LHPCurveball77.985.74.345Double play
Sep 16RHPFastball100.098.641.137Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25200001
Sep 24423010
Sep 23311001
Sep 20200011
Sep 19114100
Sep 18200001
Sep 16425100
Sep 15300001
Sep 14412001
Sep 12111000

Two strikes

Casey Mize SD · RHPwith two strikes
Casey Mize with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%38%10.1%15.1%18.0%
Splitter22%32%27.9%16.5%19.0%
Slider30%18%17.6%13.3%21.1%
Sweeper4%9%16.7%10.0%19.3%
Sinker8%3%30.0%27.3%17.0%
Pavin Smith bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Pavin Smith with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%38.9%41.0%
Whiff%20.4%21.3%
Contact%79.6%78.7%
Chase%40.3%39.6%
wOBA.242.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.7%20.5%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.337
K%27.5%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%10.4%
Barrel%5.5%
Hard-hit%26.7%
Avg EV89.9

Against right-handers, last 90 days

47 PA
wOBA.319
xwOBA vs this mix.320against pitches like his
RV/100-0.12
Hard-hit%31.9%
K%22.0%
BB%7.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Casey MizeRHP · SD vs ARI
3.5projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 21.0 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 53.9%54%≤34 strikeouts: 18.7%19%45 strikeouts: 13.2%13%56 strikeouts: 7.6%8%67 strikeouts: 3.9%4%78 strikeouts: 1.7%2%89+ strikeouts: 1.0%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.1%
BB%7.4%
Whiff%8.4%
Velo89.7
BTB Stuff92
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball35%10193.25.5%
Slider29%9087.37.8%
Splitter22%8087.815.2%
Sinker8%9493.78.8%
Sweeper4%8981.04.2%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 197411%8%17%.568
Sep 14750%3%25%.417
Sep 89032%14%46%.293

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Casey Mize SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Pavin Smith: every projection we've made →