MLBengine v14
← ARI at SD, Sep 25, 2026
8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · ARI · batting 7Tim Tawa
Bats rightTalent grade BPowerNormal
.334wOBA vs RHP.326xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · SDCasey Mize
Throws rightBTB Stuff 92Trending Down
3.5projected K17%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Casey Mize's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 93.2 mph, +9.0″ arm side, +17.9″ rise. Tim Tawa: wOBA .360 vs league .358 (about even).Fastball 36%Slider: 30% usage, 87.3 mph, -4.0″ arm side, +4.9″ rise. Tim Tawa: wOBA .314 vs league .312 (about even).Slider 30%Splitter: 22% usage, 87.7 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +6.5″ rise. Tim Tawa: wOBA .286 vs league .283 (about even).Splitter 22%Sinker: 8% usage, 93.6 mph, +13.2″ arm side, +14.6″ rise. Tim Tawa: wOBA .358 vs league .356 (about even).Sinker 8%Sweeper: 4% usage, 80.9 mph, -14.2″ arm side, -8.2″ rise. Tim Tawa: wOBA .281 vs league .278 (about even).Sweeper 4%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Tim Tawa's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Tim Tawa's last 40 balls in playHit (9)Out (31)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 58.8 mph at -49°Out: 102.1 mph at 27°Out: 97.8 mph at 34°Out: 90.9 mph at 11°Out: 87.6 mph at 28°Out: 95.9 mph at -8°Out: 102.3 mph at 42°Out: 107.2 mph at -24°Home run: 105.9 mph at 23°Double: 110.9 mph at 20°Out: 85.3 mph at 2°Out: 84.4 mph at 38°Out: 89.3 mph at 85°Out: 72.7 mph at 59°Out: 92.0 mph at -22°Out: 29.6 mph at -7°Out: 88.5 mph at -53°Out: 95.4 mph at 22°Out: 96.5 mph at 37°Out: 83.6 mph at 69°Out: 98.1 mph at 28°Out: 91.3 mph at 19°Out: 87.2 mph at 26°Out: 31.5 mph at 0°Out: 71.6 mph at 14°Out: 94.6 mph at 19°Out: 94.8 mph at 26°Double: 62.1 mph at 24°Triple: 103.8 mph at 30°Out: 101.4 mph at -1°Out: 98.0 mph at 10°Out: 91.3 mph at 20°Out: 86.5 mph at -14°Out: 96.4 mph at -12°Single: 80.2 mph at 21°Out: 91.0 mph at 3°Out: 38.3 mph at -6°Single: 98.3 mph at -5°Home run: 100.9 mph at 25°Single: 75.5 mph at 24°
40% hit 95+ mph48% in the sweet spot23% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit61.3%59.3%+2.0
2+ total bases36.1%34.5%+1.6
Home run13.6%12.6%+1.0
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+1.8
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
+1.2
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.1
Home run
Starter
+0.2
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
+0.7

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Tim Tawa hits
Tim Tawa · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .239 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 30 pitches seen.261xwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .287 on 10 PA) · league .307 · 30 pitches seen.298xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .308 on 7 PA) · league .263 · 39 pitches seen.280xwOBA .475 shrunk (raw .674 on 8 PA) · league .342 · 32 pitches seen.475xwOBA .414 shrunk (raw .431 on 19 PA) · league .386 · 47 pitches seen.414xwOBA .303 shrunk (raw .294 on 24 PA) · league .321 · 56 pitches seen.303xwOBA .316 shrunk (raw .323 on 12 PA) · league .308 · 25 pitches seen.316xwOBA .447 shrunk (raw .542 on 12 PA) · league .351 · 40 pitches seen.447xwOBA .256 shrunk (raw .222 on 13 PA) · league .292 · 51 pitches seen.256xwOBA .485 shrunk (raw .647 on 8 PA) · league .377 · 60 pitches seen.485xwOBA .351 shrunk (raw .390 on 24 PA) · league .274 · 74 pitches seen.351xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw .347 on 14 PA) · league .263 · 55 pitches seen.308xwOBA .205 shrunk (raw .184 on 39 PA) · league .274 · 241 pitches seen.205
vs RHP · 780 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 14% of 21 swings · league 22%14%Whiff 10% of 20 swings · league 20%10%Whiff 18% of 22 swings · league 19%18%Whiff 0% of 24 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 14% of 35 swings · league 9%14%Whiff 10% of 40 swings · league 11%10%Whiff 17% of 18 swings · league 14%17%Whiff 30% of 27 swings · league 13%30%Whiff 28% of 32 swings · league 17%28%Whiff 0% of 9 swings · league 28%0%Whiff 13% of 31 swings · league 24%13%Whiff 37% of 27 swings · league 32%37%Whiff 60% of 78 swings · league 49%60%
vs RHP · 780 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 70% of 30 pitches · league 62%70%Swings at 67% of 30 pitches · league 72%67%Swings at 56% of 39 pitches · league 66%56%Swings at 75% of 32 pitches · league 70%75%Swings at 75% of 47 pitches · league 76%75%Swings at 71% of 56 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 72% of 25 pitches · league 65%72%Swings at 68% of 40 pitches · league 68%68%Swings at 63% of 51 pitches · league 60%63%Swings at 15% of 60 pitches · league 24%15%Swings at 42% of 74 pitches · league 34%42%Swings at 49% of 55 pitches · league 40%49%Swings at 32% of 241 pitches · league 32%32%
vs RHP · 780 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Tim Tawa against each of Casey Mize's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%93.2+9″ / +18″.360.35817.7%17.5%52About league average vs these
Slider30%87.3-4″ / +5″.314.31233.6%28.5%31About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Splitter22%87.7+14″ / +7″.286.28336.8%31.7%17About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker8%93.6+13″ / +15″.358.35614.8%14.3%59About league average vs these
Sweeper4%80.9-14″ / -8″.281.27835.1%29.7%9About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Tim Tawa · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G516.071.125.071.100.19525.0%6.2%24.1%88.4107.20.0%36.4%18.2%
Last 15 G1545.175.227.300.252.32920.0%6.7%23.9%84.5107.29.1%36.4%39.4%
Last 30 G3086.184.259.342.276.31126.7%9.3%26.9%87.1107.812.7%38.2%43.6%
90 days65202.243.294.436.338.34123.3%6.9%25.8%87.9108.212.1%46.8%37.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 141 balls in play
Ground 45%Line drive 19%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 10%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G45.500.6001.500.7901.0320.0%20.0%37.5%102.7110.975.0%75.0%75.0%
Last 15 G1014.308.357.692.436.54821.4%7.1%37.0%94.7110.930.0%50.0%80.0%
Last 30 G1832.345.406.552.427.43325.0%9.4%33.9%94.9110.915.0%55.0%60.0%
90 days3565.267.308.383.308.32329.2%6.2%29.1%94.6110.99.8%51.2%48.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 41 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 34%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.167.238.389.264.39419.0%9.5%27.0%92.2110.920.0%46.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1559.208.259.396.297.38220.3%6.8%27.0%86.9110.914.0%39.5%48.8%
Last 30 G30118.229.299.400.316.34426.3%9.3%28.8%89.2110.913.3%42.7%48.0%
90 days67267.249.298.423.330.33724.7%6.7%26.6%89.4110.911.5%47.8%40.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 182 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 23%Fly ball 24%Pop-up 11%
Tim Tawa · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating65Above average
Last 100 pitches3trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.315 / .330results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball92.658.8-49.252Single
Sep 25LHPChangeup89.6102.1271.254Out
Sep 25RHPSlider86.597.834.502Out
Sep 25RHPSlider87.890.911.646Out
Sep 24RHPFastball92.987.628.076Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper79.695.9-8.170Out
Sep 24RHPFastball92.6102.342.347Out
Sep 23RHPSweeper85.0107.2-24.103Out
Sep 23LHPFastball93.9105.9231.588Home run
Sep 22LHPFastball90.7110.9201.491Double
Sep 22RHPFastball93.085.32.284Out
Sep 22RHPSweeper84.084.438.014Sac fly
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25511010
Sep 24500002
Sep 23314101
Sep 22412010
Sep 20400001
Sep 19400002
Sep 18300002
Sep 16400001
Sep 14400010
Sep 13412000

Two strikes

Casey Mize SD · RHPwith two strikes
Casey Mize with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%38%10.1%15.1%18.0%
Splitter22%32%27.9%16.5%19.0%
Slider30%18%17.6%13.3%21.1%
Sweeper4%9%16.7%10.0%19.3%
Sinker8%3%30.0%27.3%17.0%
Tim Tawa bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Tim Tawa with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.9%42.4%
Whiff%23.8%22.2%
Contact%76.2%77.8%
Chase%37.2%39.9%
wOBA.236.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes26.1%24.3%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.315
K%25.4%
BB%7.0%
Whiff%12.7%
Barrel%7.1%
Hard-hit%31.5%
Avg EV89.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

198 PA
wOBA.334
xwOBA vs this mix.326against pitches like his
RV/1000.22
Hard-hit%32.1%
K%23.8%
BB%6.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Casey MizeRHP · SD vs ARI
3.5projected strikeouts · likely 1 to 6 · 21.0 batters over 4.8 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 53.9%54%≤34 strikeouts: 18.7%19%45 strikeouts: 13.2%13%56 strikeouts: 7.6%8%67 strikeouts: 3.9%4%78 strikeouts: 1.7%2%89+ strikeouts: 1.0%1%9+book 3.5
Over 3.5: 46% (red bars) · under: 54%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%17.1%
BB%7.4%
Whiff%8.4%
Velo89.7
BTB Stuff92
Location106
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball35%10193.25.5%
Slider29%9087.37.8%
Splitter22%8087.815.2%
Sinker8%9493.78.8%
Sweeper4%8981.04.2%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 197411%8%17%.568
Sep 14750%3%25%.417
Sep 89032%14%46%.293

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Casey Mize SD · RHPvsARI lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

1 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameARI @ SD →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Tim Tawa: every projection we've made →