MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 25, 2026
6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIA · batting 6Agustín Ramírez
Bats rightTalent grade CBalancedHot
.305wOBA vs LHP.302xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · ATLRay Kerr
Throws leftBTB Stuff 89Stable
2.2projected K20%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Ray Kerr's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 95.1 mph, +8.6″ arm side, +14.9″ rise. Agustín Ramírez: wOBA .339 vs league .343 (about even).Fastball 36%Curveball: 33% usage, 81.2 mph, -0.8″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Agustín Ramírez: wOBA .321 vs league .325 (about even).Curveball 33%Sinker: 21% usage, 94.7 mph, +14.8″ arm side, +10.4″ rise. Agustín Ramírez: wOBA .356 vs league .360 (about even).Sinker 21%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Agustín Ramírez's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Agustín Ramírez's last 40 balls in playHit (14)Out (26)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 107.3 mph at -2°Single: 109.1 mph at 9°Out: 101.8 mph at -14°Single: 94.4 mph at -2°Out: 99.5 mph at 23°Out: 63.6 mph at 85°Out: 100.4 mph at -14°Single: 80.3 mph at -50°Out: 95.8 mph at 42°Single: 107.9 mph at 8°Out: 102.6 mph at 16°Out: 85.5 mph at 64°Double: 94.7 mph at -1°Single: 91.2 mph at 11°Out: 94.0 mph at 5°Home run: 112.5 mph at 18°Single: 100.0 mph at -10°Single: 98.4 mph at 9°Out: 109.7 mph at -11°Out: 72.8 mph at 38°Out: 71.9 mph at 53°Single: 70.9 mph at -58°Home run: 108.6 mph at 32°Out: 109.9 mph at 4°Double: 107.5 mph at 12°Out: 103.1 mph at -7°Out: 85.1 mph at -37°Out: 83.9 mph at 49°Out: 79.0 mph at 3°Out: 93.4 mph at 59°Out: 103.4 mph at 14°Out: 64.4 mph at 15°Home run: 108.3 mph at 21°Out: 78.4 mph at -5°Out: 92.9 mph at 52°Out: 94.7 mph at 39°Out: 59.0 mph at 28°Out: 92.3 mph at -26°Single: 99.5 mph at -1°Out: 88.2 mph at -9°
48% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot35% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit57.0%57.4%-0.3
2+ total bases32.1%32.8%-0.7
Home run9.1%10.0%-0.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-1.2
Home run
Starter
+0.4
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Agustín Ramírez hits
Agustín Ramírez · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .243 · 6 pitches seenxwOBA .296 shrunk (raw .294 on 3 PA) · league .296 · 8 pitches seen.296xwOBA .203 shrunk (raw .000 on 3 PA) · league .254 · 11 pitches seen.203xwOBA .292 shrunk (raw .194 on 2 PA) · league .308 · 12 pitches seen.292xwOBA .415 shrunk (raw .487 on 5 PA) · league .385 · 17 pitches seen.415xwOBA .340 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .340 · 7 pitches seenxwOBA .258 shrunk (raw .223 on 5 PA) · league .273 · 13 pitches seen.258xwOBA .395 shrunk (raw .936 on 1 PA) · league .350 · 7 pitches seen.395xwOBA .288 shrunk (raw .268 on 7 PA) · league .299 · 14 pitches seen.288xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .267 on 3 PA) · league .302 · 17 pitches seen.295xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .465 on 3 PA) · league .346 · 34 pitches seen.370xwOBA .267 shrunk (raw .246 on 13 PA) · league .289 · 53 pitches seen.267xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .382 on 9 PA) · league .257 · 43 pitches seen.311
vs LHP · 242 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 19%25%Whiff 17% of 6 swings · league 21%17%Whiff 57% of 7 swings · league 23%57%Whiff 8% of 12 swings · league 9%8%Whiff 0% of 13 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 11%25%Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 17%38%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 14%20%Whiff 18% of 11 swings · league 16%18%Whiff 44% of 9 swings · league 25%44%Whiff 25% of 4 swings · league 29%25%Whiff 45% of 20 swings · league 48%45%Whiff 47% of 15 swings · league 34%47%
vs LHP · 242 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 67% of 6 pitches · league 63%67%Swings at 75% of 8 pitches · league 71%75%Swings at 64% of 11 pitches · league 64%64%Swings at 100% of 12 pitches · league 67%100%Swings at 77% of 17 pitches · league 76%77%Swings at 57% of 7 pitches · league 72%57%Swings at 62% of 13 pitches · league 59%62%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 68%71%Swings at 79% of 14 pitches · league 66%79%Swings at 53% of 17 pitches · league 30%53%Swings at 12% of 34 pitches · league 26%12%Swings at 38% of 53 pitches · league 31%38%Swings at 35% of 43 pitches · league 41%35%
vs LHP · 242 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Agustín Ramírez against each of Ray Kerr's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%95.1+9″ / +15″.339.34323.9%18.3%17About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Curveball33%81.2-1″ / -3″.321.32534.4%31.1%4Little history vs this shape
Sinker21%94.7+15″ / +10″.356.36018.8%14.3%14About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Agustín Ramírez · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G58.500.625.500.512.47312.5%25.0%26.7%96.9107.90.0%60.0%60.0%
Last 15 G1219.188.316.188.267.35426.3%15.8%31.4%97.1109.90.0%60.0%40.0%
Last 30 G2548.205.354.231.314.31325.0%18.8%25.7%94.0111.60.0%50.0%26.9%
90 days3055.200.345.222.303.30529.1%18.2%29.7%92.7111.60.0%46.4%28.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 28 balls in play
Ground 57%Line drive 25%Fly ball 14%Pop-up 4%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G49.111.111.111.112.20411.1%0.0%35.3%94.8109.10.0%71.4%14.3%
Last 15 G1230.300.300.567.379.31823.3%0.0%28.6%92.4112.59.1%50.0%31.8%
Last 30 G2252.260.288.500.360.30221.2%3.8%24.2%89.8112.57.9%42.1%28.9%
90 days2865.274.308.484.359.28223.1%4.6%24.8%90.4112.56.5%41.3%26.1%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 46 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 15%Fly ball 17%Pop-up 15%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G517.267.353.267.312.33911.8%11.8%31.2%95.7109.10.0%66.7%33.3%
Last 15 G1549.261.306.435.336.33224.5%6.1%29.6%93.8112.56.2%53.1%34.4%
Last 30 G30100.236.320.382.338.30723.0%11.0%25.0%91.5112.54.7%45.3%28.1%
90 days38120.243.325.374.333.29225.8%10.8%27.2%91.3112.54.1%43.2%27.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 74 balls in play
Ground 54%Line drive 19%Fly ball 16%Pop-up 11%
Agustín Ramírez · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormHot
Contact rating36Below average
Last 100 pitches36steady
wOBA / xwOBA.333 / .302running 31 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker94.8107.3-2.426Double play
Sep 25RHPFastball98.0109.19.790Single
Sep 25RHPSinker94.5101.8-14.176Out
Sep 24LHPFastball93.694.4-2.286Single
Sep 24LHPFastball94.099.523.683Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper85.763.685.000Out
Sep 23RHPSplitter82.2100.4-14.209Out
Sep 23LHPFastball93.880.3-50.164Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball81.495.842.023Out
Sep 22LHPSplitter83.8107.98.661Single
Sep 22LHPFastball90.1102.616.596Out
Sep 22RHPCurveball77.685.564.009Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25411010
Sep 24411001
Sep 23511001
Sep 22311000
Sep 20100010
Sep 19523003
Sep 18436100
Sep 15500002
Sep 14411002
Sep 13114100

Two strikes

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPwith two strikes
Ray Kerr with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%43%27.3%26.1%18.6%
Curveball33%25%33.3%23.1%21.2%
Offspeed7%21%25.0%9.1%7.7%
Sinker21%11%0.0%16.7%17.7%
Agustín Ramírez bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Agustín Ramírez with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%43.5%41.5%
Whiff%22.1%21.6%
Contact%77.9%78.4%
Chase%38.3%39.9%
wOBA.241.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.4%18.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeCBalanced type
wOBA.320
K%23.4%
BB%8.2%
Whiff%12.1%
Barrel%5.2%
Hard-hit%28.9%
Avg EV90.4

Against left-handers, last 90 days

54 PA
wOBA.305
xwOBA vs this mix.302against pitches like his
RV/100-0.44
Hard-hit%24.8%
K%27.2%
BB%9.8%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Ray KerrLHP · ATL vs MIA
2.2projected strikeouts · likely 0 to 4 · 11.3 batters over 2.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 81.6%82%≤34 strikeouts: 11.0%11%45 strikeouts: 4.8%5%56 strikeouts: 1.8%2%67 strikeouts: 0.6%1%78 strikeouts: 0.1%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.0%
BB%1.8%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo89.1
BTB Stuff89
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball36%10495.012.5%
Curveball33%7681.118.6%
Sinker21%8494.60.0%
Offspeed7%–80.37.7%
Cutter4%8690.314.3%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPvsMIA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Agustín Ramírez: every projection we've made →