The game
Game totals, win probability and the first inning are research only: in the backtest they don't beat the league-wide rate. Shown as projections, never as plays.
- Carry
- +1.7% vs neutral air
- Weather
- – · Wind unknown
- Park factor
- Runs 101 · HR 90 100 = average
- Umpire
- Adam Hamari
- Schedule
- ATL traveled in; MIA traveled in
Air density from observed temperature, dew point and pressure. It shapes batted balls, not the run total directly.
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
| Date | Pitches | K% | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | 97 | 15% | 10% | 31% | .469 |
| Sep 13 | 96 | 24% | 9% | 24% | .340 |
| Sep 7 | 92 | 20% | 12% | 28% | .522 |
Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.
2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight
Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.
Pitch-mix battles
each lineup against the starter it faces| Eury Pérez's pitches | ATL lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Fastball | 29% | 98.2 | 145 | 11.6% | -0.44 | .324 | 9.8% | 32.8% | +0.19 |
| Sinker | 26% | 97.7 | 100 | 6.6% | -0.08 | .369 | 6.9% | 30.7% | +0.89 |
| Slider | 19% | 88.9 | 98 | 21.8% | 1.37 | .356 | 17.2% | 23.3% | +0.06 |
| Sweeper | 12% | 83.9 | 111 | 21.9% | 1.40 | .300 | 13.4% | 17.7% | -0.30 |
| Changeup | 7% | 90.1 | 63 | 18.8% | -0.03 | .319 | 11.8% | 25.2% | +0.03 |
| Curveball | 6% | 80.7 | 91 | 8.8% | 1.85 | .292 | 12.4% | 22.9% | -0.24 |
| Ray Kerr's pitches | MIA lineup vs that pitch | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | BTB Stuff | Whiff% | RV/100 | wOBA | Whiff% | Hard-hit% | Edge |
| Fastball | 36% | 95.0 | 104 | 12.5% | 3.96 | .337 | 8.0% | 31.6% | -0.98 |
| Curveball | 33% | 81.1 | 76 | 18.6% | -3.27 | .229 | 12.1% | 7.4% | -0.41 |
| Sinker | 21% | 94.6 | 84 | 0.0% | 4.61 | .292 | 4.0% | 22.1% | -1.27 |
| Offspeed | 7% | 80.3 | – | 7.7% | 1.25 | .225 | 0.0% | 25.0% | -0.33 |
| Cutter | 4% | 90.3 | 86 | 14.3% | 7.81 | .462 | 11.2% | 28.6% | 0.00 |
Bullpens
Pitched yesterday: Mahle, Smith-Shawver, Dodd.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
Pitched yesterday: Phillips, Ekness, Ralston, Vodnik.
Ranked on a blend of K-BB% (60%) and wOBA allowed (40%) over the bullpen window. Tired arms are context: in our tests bullpen rest didn't improve run totals.
Two strikes
how each starter finishes hitters| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 36% | 43% | 27.3% | 26.1% | 18.6% |
| Curveball | 33% | 25% | 33.3% | 23.1% | 21.2% |
| Offspeed | 7% | 21% | 25.0% | 9.1% | 7.7% |
| Sinker | 21% | 11% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 17.7% |
| Pitch | Overall | 2 strikes | Whiff% | Put-away | League put-away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 29% | 36% | 20.0% | 19.3% | 18.0% |
| Sinker | 26% | 19% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 17.0% |
| Slider | 19% | 16% | 34.3% | 21.4% | 21.1% |
| Sweeper | 12% | 14% | 50.0% | 22.6% | 19.3% |
| Changeup | 7% | 10% | 40.7% | 25.0% | 18.6% |
| Curveball | 7% | 5% | 27.8% | 29.2% | 20.0% |
| Other | 0% | 1% | – | 0.0% | 21.7% |
Braves lineup
Confirmed · facing Eury Pérez RHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake Baldwin DH · bats L | 70.7% | 44.8% | 15.9% | 4.0 | +0.5 | .403 | A | Power | Normal |
| 2 | Ronald Acuña Jr. RF · bats R | 64.2% | 39.2% | 15.6% | 3.9 | -2.4 | .353 | A | Power | Normal |
| 3 | Matt Olson 1B · bats L | 60.4% | 39.9% | 18.6% | 3.8 | -2.0 | .344 | A | Power | Hot |
| 4 | Michael Harris II CF · bats L | 67.3% | 40.2% | 11.9% | 3.8 | -0.2 | .343 | C | Power | Hot |
| 5 | Mauricio Dubón SS · bats R | 67.6% | 34.5% | 3.5% | 3.7 | -1.1 | .328 | F | Balanced | Cold |
| 6 | Ozzie Albies 2B · bats S | 56.3% | 28.2% | 7.1% | 3.6 | -2.4 | .279 | F | Balanced | Cold |
| 7 | Mike Yastrzemski LF · bats L | 54.5% | 32.1% | 11.2% | 3.5 | -1.5 | .327 | B | Balanced | Normal |
| 8 | Austin Riley 3B · bats R | 51.9% | 29.1% | 11.5% | 3.4 | -3.1 | .302 | B | Power | Normal |
| 9 | Sean Murphy C · bats R | 45.1% | 24.2% | 9.6% | 3.3 | -2.4 | .326 | Avg | Balanced | Normal |
Marlins lineup
Confirmed · facing Ray Kerr LHP| Spot | Hitter | 1+ hit | 2+ TB | HR | PA | Matchup (1+ hit) | wOBA vs hand | Talent grade | Type | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otto Lopez SS · bats R | 68.1% | 38.3% | 8.3% | 4.0 | +0.3 | .297 | C | Balanced | Normal |
| 2 | Jakob Marsee CF · bats L | 63.2% | 34.2% | 6.5% | 3.9 | +0.3 | .345 | Avg | Contact | Cold |
| 3 | Heriberto Hernández LF · bats R | 59.3% | 37.4% | 15.9% | 3.8 | +0.2 | .369 | B | Power | Cold |
| 4 | Javier Sanoja 3B · bats R | 70.1% | 39.3% | 5.6% | 3.8 | +0.4 | .409 | C | Balanced | Normal |
| 5 | Griffin Conine RF · bats L | 59.8% | 35.7% | 13.1% | 3.7 | -0.5 | .300 | B | Power | Cold |
| 6 | Agustín Ramírez DH · bats R | 57.0% | 32.1% | 9.1% | 3.6 | -0.3 | .305 | C | Balanced | Hot |
| 7 | Deyvison De Los Santos 1B · bats R | 54.4% | 29.3% | 8.0% | 3.5 | -0.1 | .277 | D | Balanced | Normal |
| 8 | Joe Mack C · bats L | 54.0% | 28.7% | 8.9% | 3.4 | -1.4 | .248 | F | Balanced | Normal |
| 9 | Jared Serna 2B · bats R | 51.5% | 27.0% | 7.6% | 3.3 | -0.3 | .281 | Avg | Balanced | Cold |