MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 25, 2026
6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIA · batting 5Griffin Conine
Bats leftTalent grade BPowerCold
.300wOBA vs LHP.327xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · ATLRay Kerr
Throws leftBTB Stuff 89Stable
2.2projected K20%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Ray Kerr's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 95.1 mph, +8.6″ arm side, +14.9″ rise. Griffin Conine: wOBA .338 vs league .342 (about even).Fastball 36%Curveball: 33% usage, 81.2 mph, -0.8″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Griffin Conine: wOBA .310 vs league .313 (about even).Curveball 33%Sinker: 21% usage, 94.7 mph, +14.8″ arm side, +10.4″ rise. Griffin Conine: wOBA .331 vs league .334 (about even).Sinker 21%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Griffin Conine's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Griffin Conine's last 40 balls in playHit (16)Out (24)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Single: 99.8 mph at 5°Home run: 102.4 mph at 28°Out: 65.6 mph at -47°Out: 79.6 mph at -35°Single: 85.5 mph at -5°Single: 92.9 mph at 0°Out: 74.2 mph at -2°Out: 106.0 mph at 22°Out: 61.9 mph at -51°Out: 78.7 mph at 37°Single: 65.1 mph at 35°Single: 106.9 mph at 2°Out: 96.5 mph at -11°Out: 81.8 mph at 75°Home run: 110.8 mph at 29°Out: 84.8 mph at 44°Out: 93.3 mph at 28°Out: 98.0 mph at 18°Out: 60.9 mph at -48°Out: 104.6 mph at -5°Home run: 100.0 mph at 28°Out: 49.8 mph at -47°Single: 92.2 mph at 18°Out: 68.2 mph at 15°Single: 81.2 mph at 15°Single: 82.1 mph at 8°Double: 102.4 mph at 29°Out: 77.3 mph at 8°Out: 92.9 mph at 72°Single: 79.3 mph at 22°Single: 100.2 mph at 9°Single: 102.9 mph at 7°Double: 114.2 mph at 14°Out: 80.9 mph at 59°Out: 94.2 mph at 73°Out: 54.1 mph at 87°Out: 101.4 mph at 27°Out: 95.6 mph at 50°Out: 91.8 mph at -10°Out: 102.3 mph at 47°
40% hit 95+ mph40% in the sweet spot40% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit59.8%60.2%-0.5
2+ total bases35.7%37.2%-1.5
Home run13.1%15.7%-2.6
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.0
Pitch mix
+0.6
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-1.0
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
+0.5
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.5
Home run
Starter
-0.9
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
-0.2
Park
-1.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Griffin Conine hits
Griffin Conine · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .260 shrunk (raw .361 on 2 PA) · league .243 · 8 pitches seen.260xwOBA .298 shrunk (raw .306 on 4 PA) · league .296 · 11 pitches seen.298xwOBA .254 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .254 · 4 pitches seenxwOBA .282 shrunk (raw .205 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 17 pitches seen.282xwOBA .370 shrunk (raw .348 on 8 PA) · league .385 · 18 pitches seen.370xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .366 on 6 PA) · league .340 · 12 pitches seen.349xwOBA .231 shrunk (raw .064 on 3 PA) · league .273 · 12 pitches seen.231xwOBA .375 shrunk (raw .679 on 1 PA) · league .350 · 7 pitches seen.375xwOBA .343 shrunk (raw .876 on 1 PA) · league .299 · 5 pitches seen.343xwOBA .294 shrunk (raw .243 on 2 PA) · league .302 · 14 pitches seen.294xwOBA .422 shrunk (raw .523 on 9 PA) · league .346 · 23 pitches seen.422xwOBA .272 shrunk (raw .251 on 10 PA) · league .289 · 48 pitches seen.272xwOBA .236 shrunk (raw .173 on 4 PA) · league .257 · 19 pitches seen.236
vs LHP · 198 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 19%0%Whiff 38% of 8 swings · league 21%38%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 21% of 14 swings · league 9%21%Whiff 0% of 12 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 9% of 11 swings · league 11%9%Whiff 44% of 9 swings · league 17%44%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 14%20%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 16%33%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 17% of 12 swings · league 29%17%Whiff 67% of 18 swings · league 48%67%Whiff 31% of 13 swings · league 34%31%
vs LHP · 198 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 50% of 8 pitches · league 63%50%Swings at 73% of 11 pitches · league 71%73%Swings at 25% of 4 pitches · league 64%25%Swings at 82% of 17 pitches · league 67%82%Swings at 67% of 18 pitches · league 76%67%Swings at 92% of 12 pitches · league 72%92%Swings at 75% of 12 pitches · league 59%75%Swings at 71% of 7 pitches · league 68%71%Swings at 60% of 5 pitches · league 66%60%Swings at 14% of 14 pitches · league 30%14%Swings at 52% of 23 pitches · league 26%52%Swings at 38% of 48 pitches · league 31%38%Swings at 68% of 19 pitches · league 41%68%
vs LHP · 198 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Griffin Conine against each of Ray Kerr's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%95.1+9″ / +15″.338.34216.0%17.6%13About league average vs these
Curveball33%81.2-1″ / -3″.310.31335.8%27.0%8About league average vs these
Sinker21%94.7+15″ / +10″.331.3349.6%10.2%14About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Griffin Conine · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G25.200.200.200.180.4810.0%0.0%15.4%77.9106.020.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G712.250.250.333.254.36125.0%0.0%28.6%84.6114.222.2%33.3%55.6%
Last 30 G1728.259.286.407.302.36125.0%3.6%26.7%86.3114.215.0%40.0%50.0%
90 days3354.255.296.333.282.33127.8%3.7%27.7%88.8114.28.3%38.9%52.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 36 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 28%Fly ball 31%Pop-up 6%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.385.429.615.450.29128.6%7.1%41.4%89.7106.911.1%44.4%11.1%
Last 15 G1543.317.349.561.390.34830.2%4.7%33.7%87.9110.817.9%39.3%39.3%
Last 30 G3085.247.353.384.332.31128.2%11.8%33.5%88.5111.710.2%38.8%32.7%
90 days75216.270.375.541.399.36830.1%13.0%35.2%92.1115.015.0%50.8%37.5%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 120 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 21%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.333.368.500.379.34121.1%5.3%33.3%85.5106.914.3%35.7%14.3%
Last 15 G1555.302.327.509.360.35129.1%3.6%32.5%87.1114.218.9%37.8%43.2%
Last 30 G30113.250.336.390.325.32327.4%9.7%31.7%87.9114.211.6%39.1%37.7%
90 days76270.267.359.496.376.36029.6%11.1%33.5%91.3115.013.5%48.1%41.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 156 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 22%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 10%
Griffin Conine · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating91Top tier
Last 100 pitches44trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.366 / .367results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit8/12
2+ total bases4/12
Home run2/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker93.899.85.551Single
Sep 25RHPFastball98.2102.4281.330Home run
Sep 25LHPCurveball81.565.6-47.189Out
Sep 24RHPSlider91.279.6-35.040Out
Sep 23RHPSplitter82.785.5-5.130Single
Sep 23RHPCurveball81.492.90.365Single
Sep 22LHPSinker92.174.2-2.067Out
Sep 22LHPFastball91.0106.0221.415Out
Sep 22RHPChangeup95.461.9-51.249Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper85.778.737.045Out
Sep 22LHPSweeper81.465.135.691Single
Sep 20RHPCutter89.2106.92.543Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25425110
Sep 24100000
Sep 23422002
Sep 22611001
Sep 20411001
Sep 19114100
Sep 18400001
Sep 16500003
Sep 15214100
Sep 14411003

Two strikes

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPwith two strikes
Ray Kerr with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%43%27.3%26.1%18.6%
Curveball33%25%33.3%23.1%21.2%
Offspeed7%21%25.0%9.1%7.7%
Sinker21%11%0.0%16.7%17.7%
Griffin Conine bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Griffin Conine with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%45.6%44.1%
Whiff%25.7%22.7%
Contact%74.3%77.3%
Chase%39.8%38.2%
wOBA.218.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.7%18.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBPower type
wOBA.350
K%29.1%
BB%10.2%
Whiff%15.2%
Barrel%7.0%
Hard-hit%27.8%
Avg EV91.1

Against left-handers, last 90 days

54 PA
wOBA.300
xwOBA vs this mix.327against pitches like his
RV/100-0.04
Hard-hit%27.2%
K%26.3%
BB%10.6%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Ray KerrLHP · ATL vs MIA
2.2projected strikeouts · likely 0 to 4 · 11.3 batters over 2.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 81.6%82%≤34 strikeouts: 11.0%11%45 strikeouts: 4.8%5%56 strikeouts: 1.8%2%67 strikeouts: 0.6%1%78 strikeouts: 0.1%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.0%
BB%1.8%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo89.1
BTB Stuff89
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball36%10495.012.5%
Curveball33%7681.118.6%
Sinker21%8494.60.0%
Offspeed7%–80.37.7%
Cutter4%8690.314.3%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPvsMIA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Griffin Conine: every projection we've made →