MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 25, 2026
6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIA · batting 9Jared Serna
Bats rightTalent grade AvgBalancedCold
.281wOBA vs LHP.280xwOBA vs his mix3.3expected PA
Starter · ATLRay Kerr
Throws leftBTB Stuff 89Stable
2.2projected K20%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Ray Kerr's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 95.1 mph, +8.6″ arm side, +14.9″ rise. Jared Serna: wOBA .338 vs league .343 (about even).Fastball 36%Curveball: 33% usage, 81.2 mph, -0.8″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Jared Serna: wOBA .320 vs league .325 (about even).Curveball 33%Sinker: 21% usage, 94.7 mph, +14.8″ arm side, +10.4″ rise. Jared Serna: wOBA .355 vs league .360 (about even).Sinker 21%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Jared Serna's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Jared Serna's last 17 balls in playHit (4)Out (13)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 83.0 mph at 66°Out: 76.7 mph at 60°Out: 90.5 mph at 44°Out: 93.9 mph at -31°Out: 86.3 mph at -11°Out: 95.9 mph at 25°Single: 75.4 mph at 9°Out: 82.9 mph at 38°Out: 69.9 mph at 84°Double: 106.4 mph at 19°Double: 83.9 mph at 14°Out: 96.3 mph at -27°Out: 95.5 mph at -17°Out: 109.2 mph at -21°Out: 96.8 mph at 18°Single: 98.2 mph at -8°Out: 54.7 mph at -39°
41% hit 95+ mph29% in the sweet spot24% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit51.5%51.8%-0.3
2+ total bases27.0%27.6%-0.6
Home run7.6%8.4%-0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
+0.5
Pitch mix
-0.3
Bullpen
+0.2
Park
-1.0
Home run
Starter
+0.3
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Jared Serna hits
Jared Serna · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .225 shrunk (raw .003 on 1 PA) · league .243 · 3 pitches seen.225xwOBA .291 shrunk (raw .228 on 1 PA) · league .296 · 4 pitches seen.291xwOBA .294 shrunk (raw .536 on 2 PA) · league .254 · 3 pitches seen.294xwOBA .308 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .308 · 1 pitches seenxwOBA .391 shrunk (raw .424 on 2 PA) · league .385 · 3 pitches seen.391xwOBA .340 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .340 · 2 pitches seenxwOBA .273 shrunk (raw – on 0 PA) · league .273 · 4 pitches seenxwOBA .332 shrunk (raw .120 on 1 PA) · league .350 · 5 pitches seen.332xwOBA .268 shrunk (raw .080 on 2 PA) · league .299 · 4 pitches seen.268xwOBA .259 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .302 · 2 pitches seen.259xwOBA .283 shrunk (raw .030 on 3 PA) · league .346 · 8 pitches seen.283xwOBA .320 shrunk (raw .698 on 1 PA) · league .289 · 8 pitches seen.320xwOBA .230 shrunk (raw .071 on 2 PA) · league .257 · 16 pitches seen.230
vs LHP · 63 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 19%33%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 0% of 2 swings · league 23%0%Whiff 100% of 1 swings · league 9%100%Whiff 0% of 3 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 17%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 16%33%Whiff 100% of 2 swings · league 25%100%Whiff 50% of 4 swings · league 29%50%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 48%0%Whiff 29% of 7 swings · league 34%29%
vs LHP · 63 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 100% of 3 pitches · league 63%100%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 71%75%Swings at 67% of 3 pitches · league 64%67%Swings at 100% of 1 pitches · league 67%100%Swings at 100% of 3 pitches · league 76%100%Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 72%50%Swings at 25% of 4 pitches · league 59%25%Swings at 80% of 5 pitches · league 68%80%Swings at 75% of 4 pitches · league 66%75%Swings at 100% of 2 pitches · league 30%100%Swings at 50% of 8 pitches · league 26%50%Swings at 13% of 8 pitches · league 31%13%Swings at 44% of 16 pitches · league 41%44%
vs LHP · 63 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Jared Serna against each of Ray Kerr's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%95.1+9″ / +15″.338.34320.6%18.3%6Little history vs this shape
Curveball33%81.2-1″ / -3″.320.32531.5%31.1%1Little history vs this shape
Sinker21%94.7+15″ / +10″.355.36016.2%14.3%4Little history vs this shape
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Jared Serna · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G47.000.000.000.000.06928.6%0.0%15.4%89.995.90.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 15 G917.125.176.250.188.19829.4%5.9%25.7%91.9109.29.1%45.5%27.3%
Last 30 G917.125.176.250.188.19829.4%5.9%25.7%91.9109.29.1%45.5%27.3%
90 days917.125.176.250.188.19829.4%5.9%25.7%91.9109.29.1%45.5%27.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 11 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 18%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.250.250.250.225.08425.0%0.0%37.5%78.483.00.0%0.0%33.3%
Last 15 G68.286.250.286.225.15225.0%0.0%28.6%80.898.20.0%33.3%33.3%
Last 30 G68.286.250.286.225.15225.0%0.0%28.6%80.898.20.0%33.3%33.3%
90 days68.286.250.286.225.15225.0%0.0%28.6%80.898.20.0%33.3%33.3%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 6 balls in play
Ground 50%Line drive 17%Fly ball 0%Pop-up 33%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.091.091.091.082.07527.3%0.0%23.8%85.695.90.0%12.5%25.0%
Last 15 G1125.174.200.261.200.18328.0%4.0%26.5%88.0109.25.9%41.2%29.4%
Last 30 G1125.174.200.261.200.18328.0%4.0%26.5%88.0109.25.9%41.2%29.4%
90 days1125.174.200.261.200.18328.0%4.0%26.5%88.0109.25.9%41.2%29.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 17 balls in play
Ground 47%Line drive 18%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 18%
FormCold
Contact rating–percentile of xwOBA
Last 100 pitches–
wOBA / xwOBA.230 / .203running 27 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit3/10
2+ total bases1/10
Home run0/10

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball94.083.066.003Out
Sep 25RHPSinker93.876.760.024Out
Sep 25LHPFastball91.790.544.014Out
Sep 24LHPFastball91.793.9-31.089Out
Sep 24LHPChangeup80.086.3-11.142Double play
Sep 24LHPFastball94.695.925.228Out
Sep 23RHPFastball95.575.49.310Single
Sep 15LHPCutter94.482.938.012Out
Sep 12LHPFastball95.869.984.003Out
Sep 8LHPSinker90.4106.419.835Double
Sep 8LHPChangeup79.983.914.855Double
Sep 4LHPSplitter82.996.3-27.147Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300000
Sep 24300000
Sep 23111000
Sep 22200002
Sep 15200001
Sep 12100000
Sep 11300003
Sep 8324001
Sep 4200000
Sep 2411010

Two strikes

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPwith two strikes
Ray Kerr with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%43%27.3%26.1%18.6%
Curveball33%25%33.3%23.1%21.2%
Offspeed7%21%25.0%9.1%7.7%
Sinker21%11%0.0%16.7%17.7%
Jared Serna bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Jared Serna with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%44.0%41.5%
Whiff%23.4%21.6%
Contact%76.6%78.4%
Chase%42.8%39.9%
wOBA.245.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes20.6%18.8%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAvgBalanced type
wOBA.310
K%24.0%
BB%7.7%
Whiff%11.1%
Barrel%5.0%
Hard-hit%26.6%
Avg EV88.6

Against left-handers, last 90 days

16 PA
wOBA.281
xwOBA vs this mix.280against pitches like his
RV/100-0.72
Hard-hit%27.8%
K%25.7%
BB%6.9%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Ray KerrLHP · ATL vs MIA
2.2projected strikeouts · likely 0 to 4 · 11.3 batters over 2.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 81.6%82%≤34 strikeouts: 11.0%11%45 strikeouts: 4.8%5%56 strikeouts: 1.8%2%67 strikeouts: 0.6%1%78 strikeouts: 0.1%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.0%
BB%1.8%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo89.1
BTB Stuff89
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball36%10495.012.5%
Curveball33%7681.118.6%
Sinker21%8494.60.0%
Offspeed7%–80.37.7%
Cutter4%8690.314.3%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPvsMIA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Jared Serna: every projection we've made →