MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 25, 2026
6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · MIA · batting 8Joe Mack
Bats leftTalent grade FBalancedNormal
.248wOBA vs LHP.255xwOBA vs his mix3.4expected PA
Starter · ATLRay Kerr
Throws leftBTB Stuff 89Stable
2.2projected K20%K%1.0trips vs this hitter
Ray Kerr's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 36% usage, 95.1 mph, +8.6″ arm side, +14.9″ rise. Joe Mack: wOBA .330 vs league .342 (about even).Fastball 36%Curveball: 33% usage, 81.2 mph, -0.8″ arm side, -3.2″ rise. Joe Mack: wOBA .301 vs league .313 (about even).Curveball 33%Sinker: 21% usage, 94.7 mph, +14.8″ arm side, +10.4″ rise. Joe Mack: wOBA .322 vs league .334 (about even).Sinker 21%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Joe Mack's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Joe Mack's last 40 balls in playHit (12)Out (28)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Home run: 107.5 mph at 27°Out: 98.8 mph at 9°Out: 103.5 mph at 21°Out: 94.1 mph at 19°Out: 92.6 mph at -7°Out: 84.3 mph at 49°Single: 103.2 mph at 6°Out: 82.1 mph at 74°Single: 93.6 mph at -15°Out: 84.8 mph at -26°Single: 89.5 mph at 6°Out: 93.0 mph at -11°Out: 74.4 mph at 8°Out: 95.1 mph at -2°Out: 88.1 mph at -16°Out: 68.0 mph at -26°Out: 81.4 mph at 61°Out: 76.9 mph at -25°Out: 95.4 mph at 29°Single: 107.5 mph at 7°Out: 90.7 mph at 53°Single: 103.0 mph at -14°Out: 90.1 mph at 21°Out: 94.0 mph at -7°Out: 98.5 mph at 34°Single: 104.3 mph at 7°Out: 84.3 mph at 29°Home run: 104.1 mph at 34°Single: 79.4 mph at -15°Double: 98.8 mph at 24°Out: 92.5 mph at -10°Out: 94.1 mph at 21°Out: 99.2 mph at 23°Out: 71.7 mph at -41°Out: 90.8 mph at -26°Single: 105.8 mph at 13°Out: 88.9 mph at 19°Out: 100.9 mph at 6°Out: 74.8 mph at 68°Single: 84.6 mph at -33°
38% hit 95+ mph33% in the sweet spot30% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.0%55.4%-1.4
2+ total bases28.7%30.8%-2.1
Home run8.9%11.3%-2.4
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-0.1
Pitch mix
-0.5
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.8
2+ total bases
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.2
Home run
Starter
-0.8
Pitch mix
-0.2
Bullpen
-0.1
Park
-1.3

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Joe Mack hits
Joe Mack · hot and cold vs LHP
xwOBA .224 shrunk (raw .000 on 1 PA) · league .243 · 5 pitches seen.224xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .003 on 1 PA) · league .296 · 3 pitches seen.273xwOBA .224 shrunk (raw .134 on 4 PA) · league .254 · 5 pitches seen.224xwOBA .243 shrunk (raw .049 on 4 PA) · league .308 · 10 pitches seen.243xwOBA .350 shrunk (raw .265 on 5 PA) · league .385 · 7 pitches seen.350xwOBA .347 shrunk (raw .368 on 4 PA) · league .340 · 10 pitches seen.347xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .117 on 3 PA) · league .273 · 10 pitches seen.242xwOBA .336 shrunk (raw .254 on 2 PA) · league .350 · 9 pitches seen.336xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .135 on 1 PA) · league .299 · 2 pitches seen.286xwOBA .310 shrunk (raw .356 on 2 PA) · league .302 · 5 pitches seen.310xwOBA .357 shrunk (raw .485 on 1 PA) · league .346 · 5 pitches seen.357xwOBA .261 shrunk (raw .175 on 4 PA) · league .289 · 36 pitches seen.261xwOBA .289 shrunk (raw .419 on 3 PA) · league .257 · 15 pitches seen.289
vs LHP · 122 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 19%20%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 21%0%Whiff 20% of 5 swings · league 23%20%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 9%0%Whiff 0% of 6 swings · league 10%0%Whiff 11% of 9 swings · league 11%11%Whiff 33% of 3 swings · league 17%33%Whiff 33% of 6 swings · league 14%33%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 16%0%Whiff 0% of 1 swings · league 25%0%Whiff 0% of 4 swings · league 29%0%Whiff 71% of 7 swings · league 48%71%Whiff 25% of 8 swings · league 34%25%
vs LHP · 122 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 100% of 5 pitches · league 63%100%Swings at 33% of 3 pitches · league 71%33%Swings at 100% of 5 pitches · league 64%100%Swings at 40% of 10 pitches · league 67%40%Swings at 86% of 7 pitches · league 76%86%Swings at 90% of 10 pitches · league 72%90%Swings at 30% of 10 pitches · league 59%30%Swings at 67% of 9 pitches · league 68%67%Swings at 50% of 2 pitches · league 66%50%Swings at 20% of 5 pitches · league 30%20%Swings at 80% of 5 pitches · league 26%80%Swings at 19% of 36 pitches · league 31%19%Swings at 53% of 15 pitches · league 41%53%
vs LHP · 122 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Joe Mack against each of Ray Kerr's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball36%95.1+9″ / +15″.330.34217.4%17.6%7Little history vs this shape
Curveball33%81.2-1″ / -3″.301.31329.0%27.0%4Little history vs this shape
Sinker21%94.7+15″ / +10″.322.33410.1%10.2%10About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on left-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Joe Mack · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G34.250.250.250.225.2160.0%0.0%27.3%91.898.80.0%25.0%25.0%
Last 15 G45.200.200.200.180.2110.0%0.0%28.6%92.298.80.0%20.0%20.0%
Last 30 G1218.235.222.235.200.16022.2%0.0%29.0%84.6108.70.0%35.7%14.3%
90 days2638.125.194.125.174.21918.4%7.9%21.7%80.8108.70.0%22.2%7.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 27 balls in play
Ground 67%Line drive 4%Fly ball 11%Pop-up 19%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G511.300.364.600.409.5140.0%9.1%15.8%92.9107.520.0%40.0%40.0%
Last 15 G1541.263.293.447.316.32519.5%4.9%18.8%92.1107.59.7%41.9%35.5%
Last 30 G2874.243.270.400.289.26624.3%4.1%22.8%89.0107.57.5%34.0%30.2%
90 days60157.242.274.470.317.29326.1%3.8%26.0%89.3109.39.2%42.2%29.4%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 109 balls in play
Ground 52%Line drive 20%Fly ball 19%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G515.286.333.500.360.4350.0%6.7%20.0%92.6107.514.3%35.7%35.7%
Last 15 G1546.256.283.419.301.31217.4%4.3%20.2%92.1107.58.3%38.9%33.3%
Last 30 G3092.241.261.368.272.24523.9%3.3%23.9%88.1108.76.0%34.3%26.9%
90 days62195.221.259.409.291.28024.6%4.6%25.3%87.6109.37.4%38.2%25.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 136 balls in play
Ground 55%Line drive 17%Fly ball 18%Pop-up 10%
Joe Mack · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating16Poor
Last 100 pitches1trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.278 / .273results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases3/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPCurveball83.3107.5271.962Home run
Sep 25LHPCurveball81.698.89.564Out
Sep 23RHPFastball93.4103.521.954Out
Sep 23RHPFastball91.494.119.369Out
Sep 23LHPSweeper83.192.6-7.171Out
Sep 23RHPChangeup90.184.349.008Out
Sep 22RHPFastball100.2103.26.603Single
Sep 22LHPFastball92.082.174.003Out
Sep 22LHPSinker96.093.6-15.126Single
Sep 20RHPFastball92.384.8-26.037Out
Sep 20RHPCurveball77.089.56.414Single
Sep 19RHPSplitter86.693.0-11.135Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25314110
Sep 23400000
Sep 22322000
Sep 20211000
Sep 19300000
Sep 18200001
Sep 16400002
Sep 14411010
Sep 13311001
Sep 12400002

Two strikes

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPwith two strikes
Ray Kerr with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball36%43%27.3%26.1%18.6%
Curveball33%25%33.3%23.1%21.2%
Offspeed7%21%25.0%9.1%7.7%
Sinker21%11%0.0%16.7%17.7%
Joe Mack bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Joe Mack with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Little two-strike history vs these shapes
With two strikesHimLeague
K%46.0%44.1%
Whiff%23.9%22.7%
Contact%76.1%77.3%
Chase%38.6%38.2%
wOBA.211.224
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.1%18.2%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.296
K%24.6%
BB%5.4%
Whiff%12.0%
Barrel%4.8%
Hard-hit%26.0%
Avg EV87.6

Against left-handers, last 90 days

38 PA
wOBA.248
xwOBA vs this mix.255against pitches like his
RV/100-2.06
Hard-hit%20.1%
K%22.2%
BB%4.3%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Ray KerrLHP · ATL vs MIA
2.2projected strikeouts · likely 0 to 4 · 11.3 batters over 2.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 81.6%82%≤34 strikeouts: 11.0%11%45 strikeouts: 4.8%5%56 strikeouts: 1.8%2%67 strikeouts: 0.6%1%78 strikeouts: 0.1%0%89+ strikeouts: 0.1%0%9+book 2.5
Over 2.5: 38% (red bars) · under: 62%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%20.0%
BB%1.8%
Whiff%11.7%
Velo89.1
BTB Stuff89
Location100
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball36%10495.012.5%
Curveball33%7681.118.6%
Sinker21%8494.60.0%
Offspeed7%–80.37.7%
Cutter4%8690.314.3%

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Ray Kerr ATL · LHPvsMIA lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

3 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against left-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Joe Mack: every projection we've made →