MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 25, 2026
6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · ATL · batting 5Mauricio Dubón
Bats rightTalent grade FBalancedCold
.328wOBA vs RHP.307xwOBA vs his mix3.7expected PA
Starter · MIAEury Pérez
Throws rightBTB Stuff 111Trending Down
5.6projected K25%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Eury Pérez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 29% usage, 98.3 mph, +11.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Mauricio Dubón: wOBA .339 vs league .337 (about even).Fastball 29%Sinker: 26% usage, 97.7 mph, +15.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Mauricio Dubón: wOBA .343 vs league .341 (about even).Sinker 26%Slider: 19% usage, 89.0 mph, +0.1″ arm side, +5.3″ rise. Mauricio Dubón: wOBA .315 vs league .313 (about even).Slider 19%Sweeper: 12% usage, 83.9 mph, -7.0″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Mauricio Dubón: wOBA .294 vs league .292 (about even).Sweeper 12%Changeup: 7% usage, 90.2 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +10.2″ rise. Mauricio Dubón: wOBA .341 vs league .339 (about even).Changeup 7%Curveball: 7% usage, 80.7 mph, -8.6″ arm side, -6.7″ rise. Mauricio Dubón: wOBA .292 vs league .290 (about even).Curveball 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Mauricio Dubón's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Mauricio Dubón's last 40 balls in playHit (17)Out (23)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 99.6 mph at -1°Out: 94.0 mph at 19°Out: 65.9 mph at 80°Out: 93.7 mph at 35°Out: 85.2 mph at 41°Single: 105.6 mph at 10°Single: 71.5 mph at 13°Out: 28.5 mph at -3°Out: 52.0 mph at 70°Single: 69.2 mph at -9°Out: 92.9 mph at 44°Out: 93.1 mph at -11°Single: 71.5 mph at -3°Out: 62.4 mph at 9°Double: 81.0 mph at -24°Out: 93.9 mph at 20°Out: 77.2 mph at 68°Out: 80.6 mph at 39°Single: 80.8 mph at 15°Out: 99.1 mph at 31°Double: 100.6 mph at 25°Out: 100.9 mph at -12°Single: 90.4 mph at 14°Out: 69.1 mph at 2°Out: 82.9 mph at 51°Triple: 95.4 mph at 20°Double: 99.9 mph at 1°Single: 100.6 mph at 5°Out: 93.5 mph at -30°Out: 84.0 mph at 54°Out: 68.5 mph at 3°Single: 84.1 mph at 6°Single: 104.8 mph at -1°Single: 87.3 mph at -7°Single: 83.2 mph at 23°Single: 104.5 mph at 3°Out: 87.6 mph at 48°Out: 84.5 mph at -8°Single: 97.4 mph at -2°Out: 93.1 mph at 19°
28% hit 95+ mph30% in the sweet spot43% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit67.6%68.7%-1.1
2+ total bases34.5%35.7%-1.2
Home run3.5%4.3%-0.8
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.1
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
+0.3
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.2
Home run
Starter
-0.4
Pitch mix
+0.1
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-0.4

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Mauricio Dubón hits
Mauricio Dubón · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .226 shrunk (raw .110 on 5 PA) · league .274 · 27 pitches seen.226xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .364 on 6 PA) · league .307 · 22 pitches seen.326xwOBA .253 shrunk (raw .233 on 6 PA) · league .263 · 28 pitches seen.253xwOBA .240 shrunk (raw .145 on 13 PA) · league .342 · 38 pitches seen.240xwOBA .425 shrunk (raw .450 on 19 PA) · league .386 · 47 pitches seen.425xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .297 on 17 PA) · league .321 · 51 pitches seen.307xwOBA .349 shrunk (raw .393 on 11 PA) · league .308 · 28 pitches seen.349xwOBA .400 shrunk (raw .435 on 17 PA) · league .351 · 38 pitches seen.400xwOBA .242 shrunk (raw .214 on 21 PA) · league .292 · 55 pitches seen.242xwOBA .409 shrunk (raw .424 on 26 PA) · league .377 · 94 pitches seen.409xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .256 on 19 PA) · league .274 · 62 pitches seen.263xwOBA .326 shrunk (raw .363 on 20 PA) · league .263 · 56 pitches seen.326xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .237 on 33 PA) · league .274 · 249 pitches seen.247
vs RHP · 795 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 9% of 22 swings · league 22%9%Whiff 6% of 17 swings · league 20%6%Whiff 14% of 21 swings · league 19%14%Whiff 13% of 30 swings · league 10%13%Whiff 10% of 39 swings · league 9%10%Whiff 9% of 33 swings · league 11%9%Whiff 16% of 25 swings · league 14%16%Whiff 4% of 27 swings · league 13%4%Whiff 6% of 32 swings · league 17%6%Whiff 9% of 47 swings · league 28%9%Whiff 11% of 28 swings · league 24%11%Whiff 3% of 34 swings · league 32%3%Whiff 41% of 73 swings · league 49%41%
vs RHP · 795 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 82% of 27 pitches · league 62%82%Swings at 77% of 22 pitches · league 72%77%Swings at 75% of 28 pitches · league 66%75%Swings at 79% of 38 pitches · league 70%79%Swings at 83% of 47 pitches · league 76%83%Swings at 65% of 51 pitches · league 70%65%Swings at 89% of 28 pitches · league 65%89%Swings at 71% of 38 pitches · league 68%71%Swings at 58% of 55 pitches · league 60%58%Swings at 50% of 94 pitches · league 24%50%Swings at 45% of 62 pitches · league 34%45%Swings at 61% of 56 pitches · league 40%61%Swings at 29% of 249 pitches · league 32%29%
vs RHP · 795 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Mauricio Dubón against each of Eury Pérez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball29%98.3+12″ / +18″.339.33710.8%19.7%39About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sinker26%97.7+16″ / +14″.343.3416.9%13.0%46About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Slider19%89.0+0″ / +5″.315.31321.3%27.8%42About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Sweeper12%83.9-7″ / +11″.294.29225.5%32.5%39About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Changeup7%90.2+14″ / +10″.341.33911.0%18.6%41About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball7%80.7-9″ / -7″.292.29022.1%28.7%16About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Mauricio Dubón · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.250.308.250.300.35514.3%7.1%11.5%80.0105.60.0%20.0%50.0%
Last 15 G1547.350.413.450.393.36012.8%6.4%13.8%86.7105.65.7%34.3%40.0%
Last 30 G2990.309.360.407.350.32511.1%5.6%14.6%85.0105.64.2%28.2%38.0%
90 days72217.284.336.360.324.31410.1%6.5%14.5%85.3105.92.3%28.4%36.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 176 balls in play
Ground 42%Line drive 22%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.429.429.571.436.04914.3%0.0%7.7%76.693.10.0%0.0%0.0%
Last 15 G1017.375.412.438.379.2025.9%5.9%10.0%80.499.40.0%6.7%20.0%
Last 30 G1933.312.333.375.315.2053.0%3.0%8.3%81.6100.60.0%16.1%19.4%
90 days4588.277.287.373.312.2436.8%2.3%10.4%86.6105.60.0%30.0%33.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 80 balls in play
Ground 46%Line drive 16%Fly ball 26%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G521.316.350.368.350.24214.3%4.8%10.3%78.8105.60.0%12.5%31.2%
Last 15 G1564.357.413.446.390.31710.9%6.2%12.9%84.8105.64.0%26.0%34.0%
Last 30 G30123.310.352.398.340.2928.9%4.9%12.8%84.0105.62.9%24.5%32.4%
90 days75305.282.322.364.320.2939.2%5.2%13.3%85.7105.91.6%28.9%35.9%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 256 balls in play
Ground 43%Line drive 20%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 11%
Mauricio Dubón · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating35Below average
Last 100 pitches37steady
wOBA / xwOBA.320 / .301running 19 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit12/12
2+ total bases7/12
Home run0/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSlider87.699.6-1.361Out
Sep 25RHPFastball99.094.019.369Out
Sep 25RHPFastball96.365.980.000Out
Sep 24RHPSinker89.693.735.080Out
Sep 24RHPSweeper86.485.241.025Out
Sep 24RHPSinker90.2105.610.867Single
Sep 24RHPSweeper86.071.513.278Single
Sep 24RHPFastball96.128.5-3–Sac bunt
Sep 23LHPSweeper81.952.070.003Out
Sep 23LHPChangeup86.169.2-9.047Single
Sep 23LHPFastball92.392.944.013Out
Sep 22LHPCutter88.493.1-11.162Double play
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300000
Sep 24522000
Sep 23522010
Sep 22411001
Sep 20412002
Sep 19411001
Sep 18523001
Sep 16425000
Sep 15411010
Sep 14422010

Two strikes

Eury Pérez MIA · RHPwith two strikes
Eury Pérez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball29%36%20.0%19.3%18.0%
Sinker26%19%13.6%13.3%17.0%
Slider19%16%34.3%21.4%21.1%
Sweeper12%14%50.0%22.6%19.3%
Changeup7%10%40.7%25.0%18.6%
Curveball7%5%27.8%29.2%20.0%
Other0%1%–0.0%21.7%
Mauricio Dubón bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Mauricio Dubón with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%31.0%42.4%
Whiff%13.8%22.2%
Contact%86.2%77.8%
Chase%43.4%39.9%
wOBA.252.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes12.8%20.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.314
K%10.0%
BB%5.5%
Whiff%7.8%
Barrel%1.4%
Hard-hit%24.1%
Avg EV85.6

Against right-handers, last 90 days

217 PA
wOBA.328
xwOBA vs this mix.307against pitches like his
RV/100-0.07
Hard-hit%23.5%
K%11.3%
BB%5.4%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Eury PérezRHP · MIA vs ATL
5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.7 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 19.7%20%≤34 strikeouts: 15.3%15%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 15.7%16%67 strikeouts: 12.5%13%78 strikeouts: 8.7%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.2%11%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.4%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%13.8%
Velo92.9
BTB Stuff111
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball29%14598.211.6%
Sinker26%10097.76.6%
Slider19%9888.921.8%
Sweeper12%11183.921.9%
Changeup7%6390.118.8%
Curveball6%9180.78.8%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199715%10%31%.469
Sep 139624%9%24%.340
Sep 79220%12%28%.522

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Eury Pérez MIA · RHPvsATL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Mauricio Dubón: every projection we've made →