MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 25, 2026
6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · ATL · batting 7Mike Yastrzemski
Bats leftTalent grade BBalancedNormal
.327wOBA vs RHP.344xwOBA vs his mix3.5expected PA
Starter · MIAEury Pérez
Throws rightBTB Stuff 111Trending Down
5.6projected K25%K%1.9trips vs this hitter
Eury Pérez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 29% usage, 98.3 mph, +11.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Mike Yastrzemski: wOBA .319 vs league .319 (about even).Fastball 29%Sinker: 26% usage, 97.7 mph, +15.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Mike Yastrzemski: wOBA .331 vs league .331 (about even).Sinker 26%Slider: 19% usage, 89.0 mph, +0.1″ arm side, +5.3″ rise. Mike Yastrzemski: wOBA .358 vs league .358 (about even).Slider 19%Sweeper: 12% usage, 83.9 mph, -7.0″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Mike Yastrzemski: wOBA .349 vs league .349 (about even).Sweeper 12%Changeup: 7% usage, 90.2 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +10.2″ rise. Mike Yastrzemski: wOBA .324 vs league .324 (about even).Changeup 7%Curveball: 7% usage, 80.7 mph, -8.6″ arm side, -6.7″ rise. Mike Yastrzemski: wOBA .316 vs league .316 (about even).Curveball 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Mike Yastrzemski's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Mike Yastrzemski's last 40 balls in playHit (13)Out (27)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 96.9 mph at 62°Single: 93.4 mph at 6°Out: 96.0 mph at 37°Out: 102.5 mph at 19°Out: 91.9 mph at 65°Out: 97.4 mph at 8°Single: 96.1 mph at 13°Home run: 101.4 mph at 36°Out: 102.8 mph at 5°Single: 88.5 mph at 6°Home run: 98.4 mph at 39°Out: 64.9 mph at -13°Out: 94.8 mph at 6°Out: 81.4 mph at -22°Out: 56.1 mph at -40°Out: 91.5 mph at 0°Out: 101.1 mph at -13°Out: 79.8 mph at 70°Home run: 104.9 mph at 24°Out: 60.3 mph at -50°Out: 89.1 mph at 1°Single: 73.1 mph at 34°Single: 96.6 mph at 10°Single: 91.8 mph at -8°Double: 92.1 mph at 22°Out: 90.8 mph at 56°Out: 82.4 mph at 39°Out: 104.8 mph at 19°Out: 81.3 mph at -34°Out: 58.2 mph at 38°Out: 99.4 mph at 22°Single: 73.2 mph at 28°Double: 81.6 mph at 24°Single: 41.1 mph at -64°Out: 89.0 mph at 2°Out: 96.8 mph at 31°Out: 98.6 mph at 37°Out: 97.0 mph at 5°Out: 85.1 mph at 41°Out: 105.1 mph at -18°
43% hit 95+ mph28% in the sweet spot33% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit54.5%56.1%-1.5
2+ total bases32.1%33.4%-1.4
Home run11.2%12.4%-1.2
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.8
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.3
Park
-0.5
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.4
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
+0.5
Park
-0.8
Home run
Starter
-0.7
Pitch mix
+0.2
Bullpen
+0.4
Park
-1.1

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Mike Yastrzemski hits
Mike Yastrzemski · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .247 shrunk (raw .210 on 9 PA) · league .274 · 32 pitches seen.247xwOBA .273 shrunk (raw .190 on 5 PA) · league .307 · 25 pitches seen.273xwOBA .270 shrunk (raw .353 on 1 PA) · league .263 · 13 pitches seen.270xwOBA .348 shrunk (raw .356 on 9 PA) · league .342 · 51 pitches seen.348xwOBA .475 shrunk (raw .523 on 22 PA) · league .386 · 52 pitches seen.475xwOBA .275 shrunk (raw .233 on 13 PA) · league .321 · 42 pitches seen.275xwOBA .307 shrunk (raw .305 on 10 PA) · league .308 · 39 pitches seen.307xwOBA .328 shrunk (raw .316 on 24 PA) · league .351 · 57 pitches seen.328xwOBA .353 shrunk (raw .401 on 15 PA) · league .292 · 31 pitches seen.353xwOBA .405 shrunk (raw .430 on 13 PA) · league .377 · 117 pitches seen.405xwOBA .237 shrunk (raw .162 on 6 PA) · league .274 · 41 pitches seen.237xwOBA .263 shrunk (raw .263 on 20 PA) · league .263 · 122 pitches seen.263xwOBA .303 shrunk (raw .318 on 23 PA) · league .274 · 112 pitches seen.303
vs RHP · 734 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 46% of 13 swings · league 22%46%Whiff 47% of 17 swings · league 20%47%Whiff 44% of 9 swings · league 19%44%Whiff 11% of 27 swings · league 10%11%Whiff 10% of 40 swings · league 9%10%Whiff 15% of 26 swings · league 11%15%Whiff 0% of 19 swings · league 14%0%Whiff 9% of 43 swings · league 13%9%Whiff 5% of 19 swings · league 17%5%Whiff 71% of 7 swings · league 28%71%Whiff 23% of 13 swings · league 24%23%Whiff 20% of 35 swings · league 32%20%Whiff 30% of 50 swings · league 49%30%
vs RHP · 734 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 41% of 32 pitches · league 62%41%Swings at 68% of 25 pitches · league 72%68%Swings at 69% of 13 pitches · league 66%69%Swings at 53% of 51 pitches · league 70%53%Swings at 77% of 52 pitches · league 76%77%Swings at 62% of 42 pitches · league 70%62%Swings at 49% of 39 pitches · league 65%49%Swings at 75% of 57 pitches · league 68%75%Swings at 61% of 31 pitches · league 60%61%Swings at 6% of 117 pitches · league 24%6%Swings at 32% of 41 pitches · league 34%32%Swings at 29% of 122 pitches · league 40%29%Swings at 45% of 112 pitches · league 32%45%
vs RHP · 734 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Mike Yastrzemski against each of Eury Pérez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball29%98.3+12″ / +18″.319.31924.2%22.8%35About league average vs these
Sinker26%97.7+16″ / +14″.331.33120.5%19.5%35About league average vs these
Slider19%89.0+0″ / +5″.358.35818.8%21.8%31About league average vs these
Sweeper12%83.9-7″ / +11″.349.34920.4%23.6%20About league average vs these
Changeup7%90.2+14″ / +10″.324.32418.5%23.5%35About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball7%80.7-9″ / -7″.316.31622.2%25.7%17About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Mike Yastrzemski · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.182.308.182.246.31830.8%15.4%21.7%96.3102.50.0%71.4%42.9%
Last 15 G1542.237.310.421.320.30519.0%9.5%18.5%88.6104.93.3%40.0%26.7%
Last 30 G3081.236.321.347.302.30125.9%11.1%18.6%88.7105.12.0%43.1%27.5%
90 days64170.221.306.423.322.33424.7%11.2%20.1%89.9107.07.3%43.1%35.8%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 109 balls in play
Ground 39%Line drive 25%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 12%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G111.0001.0004.0002.000.7760.0%0.0%33.3%101.4101.40.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 15 G22.500.5002.0001.000.38850.0%0.0%20.0%101.4101.40.0%100.0%0.0%
Last 30 G33.333.3331.333.667.39533.3%0.0%28.6%94.2101.40.0%50.0%0.0%
90 days66.667.6671.167.783.32216.7%0.0%18.2%73.4101.40.0%40.0%0.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 5 balls in play
Ground 80%Line drive 0%Fly ball 20%Pop-up 0%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G514.250.357.500.371.35128.6%14.3%23.1%97.0102.50.0%75.0%37.5%
Last 15 G1544.250.318.500.351.30820.5%9.1%18.6%89.0104.93.2%41.9%25.8%
Last 30 G3084.240.321.387.315.30426.2%10.7%19.0%88.9105.11.9%43.4%26.4%
90 days64176.239.318.452.338.33324.4%10.8%20.1%89.2107.07.0%43.0%34.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 114 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 24%Fly ball 25%Pop-up 11%
Mike Yastrzemski · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating92Top tier
Last 100 pitches71trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.344 / .370running 26 points behind his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases5/12
Home run3/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSinker98.196.962.021Out
Sep 24RHPFastball93.693.46.477Single
Sep 24RHPFastball95.596.037.209Out
Sep 24RHPSinker94.1102.519.489Out
Sep 23RHPCurveball86.991.965.014Out
Sep 20RHPChangeup87.197.48.627Out
Sep 20RHPFastball95.296.113.907Single
Sep 20LHPFastball92.0101.436.776Home run
Sep 19RHPCutter87.8102.85.558Out
Sep 19RHPChangeup87.488.56.414Single
Sep 19RHPFastball94.898.439.213Home run
Sep 18RHPFastball92.064.9-13.044Out
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300002
Sep 24511011
Sep 23100000
Sep 22100010
Sep 20425101
Sep 19425101
Sep 18400002
Sep 16100000
Sep 15400000
Sep 14214110

Two strikes

Eury Pérez MIA · RHPwith two strikes
Eury Pérez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball29%36%20.0%19.3%18.0%
Sinker26%19%13.6%13.3%17.0%
Slider19%16%34.3%21.4%21.1%
Sweeper12%14%50.0%22.6%19.3%
Changeup7%10%40.7%25.0%18.6%
Curveball7%5%27.8%29.2%20.0%
Other0%1%–0.0%21.7%
Mike Yastrzemski bats Lwith two strikes, vs this hand
Mike Yastrzemski with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%40.9%41.0%
Whiff%19.8%21.3%
Contact%80.2%78.7%
Chase%39.0%39.6%
wOBA.247.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes19.5%21.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeBBalanced type
wOBA.338
K%22.5%
BB%11.7%
Whiff%9.0%
Barrel%5.1%
Hard-hit%28.4%
Avg EV89.3

Against right-handers, last 90 days

170 PA
wOBA.327
xwOBA vs this mix.344against pitches like his
RV/1000.20
Hard-hit%28.0%
K%23.5%
BB%11.2%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Eury PérezRHP · MIA vs ATL
5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.7 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 19.7%20%≤34 strikeouts: 15.3%15%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 15.7%16%67 strikeouts: 12.5%13%78 strikeouts: 8.7%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.2%11%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.4%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%13.8%
Velo92.9
BTB Stuff111
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball29%14598.211.6%
Sinker26%10097.76.6%
Slider19%9888.921.8%
Sweeper12%11183.921.9%
Changeup7%6390.118.8%
Curveball6%9180.78.8%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199715%10%31%.469
Sep 139624%9%24%.340
Sep 79220%12%28%.522

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Eury Pérez MIA · RHPvsATL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Mike Yastrzemski: every projection we've made →