MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 25, 2026
6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · ATL · batting 6Ozzie Albies
Switch hitterTalent grade FBalancedCold
.279wOBA vs RHP.251xwOBA vs his mix3.6expected PA
Starter · MIAEury Pérez
Throws rightBTB Stuff 111Trending Down
5.6projected K25%K%2.5trips vs this hitter
Eury Pérez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 29% usage, 98.3 mph, +11.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Ozzie Albies: wOBA .300 vs league .319 (pitcher's edge).Fastball 29%Sinker: 26% usage, 97.7 mph, +15.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Ozzie Albies: wOBA .313 vs league .331 (pitcher's edge).Sinker 26%Slider: 19% usage, 89.0 mph, +0.1″ arm side, +5.3″ rise. Ozzie Albies: wOBA .339 vs league .358 (pitcher's edge).Slider 19%Sweeper: 12% usage, 83.9 mph, -7.0″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Ozzie Albies: wOBA .331 vs league .349 (pitcher's edge).Sweeper 12%Changeup: 7% usage, 90.2 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +10.2″ rise. Ozzie Albies: wOBA .306 vs league .324 (pitcher's edge).Changeup 7%Curveball: 7% usage, 80.7 mph, -8.6″ arm side, -6.7″ rise. Ozzie Albies: wOBA .298 vs league .316 (pitcher's edge).Curveball 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ozzie Albies's wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ozzie Albies's last 40 balls in playHit (8)Out (32)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 97.8 mph at -6°Out: 88.2 mph at 58°Out: 80.1 mph at 86°Single: 64.3 mph at -42°Single: 91.7 mph at 0°Out: 49.9 mph at 42°Out: 85.0 mph at 34°Out: 92.9 mph at 21°Out: 83.6 mph at 32°Out: 98.2 mph at 66°Out: 72.6 mph at -5°Single: 64.2 mph at 46°Out: 79.8 mph at -33°Out: 83.9 mph at -19°Out: 97.5 mph at -4°Out: 94.8 mph at 51°Out: 87.6 mph at 57°Out: 80.5 mph at -35°Out: 79.2 mph at 25°Single: 108.5 mph at 4°Out: 82.6 mph at 43°Out: 89.1 mph at -23°Single: 98.9 mph at 11°Home run: 103.2 mph at 37°Out: 92.8 mph at -11°Out: 99.4 mph at -19°Out: 66.2 mph at 7°Out: 88.6 mph at -22°Out: 83.3 mph at 64°Out: 56.2 mph at 85°Out: 91.9 mph at 55°Out: 75.4 mph at -24°Double: 106.2 mph at 13°Out: 89.7 mph at 46°Out: 90.8 mph at 40°Out: 85.2 mph at -16°Out: 87.4 mph at -16°Out: 97.9 mph at 42°Out: 91.5 mph at 5°Triple: 99.2 mph at 24°
25% hit 95+ mph15% in the sweet spot20% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit56.3%58.6%-2.4
2+ total bases28.2%30.2%-2.0
Home run7.1%8.2%-1.1
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-1.8
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.3
2+ total bases
Starter
-1.3
Pitch mix
-0.4
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.5
Home run
Starter
-0.3
Pitch mix
-0.1
Bullpen
+0.1
Park
-0.8

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Ozzie Albies hits
Ozzie Albies · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .280 shrunk (raw .318 on 2 PA) · league .274 · 47 pitches seen.280xwOBA .223 shrunk (raw .112 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 46 pitches seen.223xwOBA .225 shrunk (raw .000 on 2 PA) · league .263 · 18 pitches seen.225xwOBA .306 shrunk (raw .286 on 21 PA) · league .342 · 75 pitches seen.306xwOBA .225 shrunk (raw .150 on 26 PA) · league .386 · 54 pitches seen.225xwOBA .331 shrunk (raw .347 on 8 PA) · league .321 · 29 pitches seen.331xwOBA .264 shrunk (raw .235 on 18 PA) · league .308 · 40 pitches seen.264xwOBA .275 shrunk (raw .233 on 22 PA) · league .351 · 65 pitches seen.275xwOBA .249 shrunk (raw .210 on 13 PA) · league .292 · 35 pitches seen.249xwOBA .373 shrunk (raw .371 on 22 PA) · league .377 · 161 pitches seen.373xwOBA .314 shrunk (raw .476 on 3 PA) · league .274 · 32 pitches seen.314xwOBA .200 shrunk (raw .183 on 44 PA) · league .263 · 184 pitches seen.200xwOBA .285 shrunk (raw .290 on 29 PA) · league .274 · 145 pitches seen.285
vs RHP · 931 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 38% of 16 swings · league 22%38%Whiff 42% of 31 swings · league 20%42%Whiff 40% of 15 swings · league 19%40%Whiff 8% of 53 swings · league 10%8%Whiff 13% of 46 swings · league 9%13%Whiff 0% of 24 swings · league 11%0%Whiff 9% of 32 swings · league 14%9%Whiff 11% of 54 swings · league 13%11%Whiff 10% of 30 swings · league 17%10%Whiff 62% of 13 swings · league 28%62%Whiff 20% of 10 swings · league 24%20%Whiff 22% of 110 swings · league 32%22%Whiff 36% of 81 swings · league 49%36%
vs RHP · 931 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 34% of 47 pitches · league 62%34%Swings at 67% of 46 pitches · league 72%67%Swings at 83% of 18 pitches · league 66%83%Swings at 71% of 75 pitches · league 70%71%Swings at 85% of 54 pitches · league 76%85%Swings at 83% of 29 pitches · league 70%83%Swings at 80% of 40 pitches · league 65%80%Swings at 83% of 65 pitches · league 68%83%Swings at 86% of 35 pitches · league 60%86%Swings at 8% of 161 pitches · league 24%8%Swings at 31% of 32 pitches · league 34%31%Swings at 60% of 184 pitches · league 40%60%Swings at 56% of 145 pitches · league 32%56%
vs RHP · 931 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Ozzie Albies against each of Eury Pérez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball29%98.3+12″ / +18″.300.31926.1%22.8%43About league average vs these
Sinker26%97.7+16″ / +14″.313.33122.1%19.5%51About league average vs these
Slider19%89.0+0″ / +5″.339.35819.9%21.8%30About league average vs these
Sweeper12%83.9-7″ / +11″.331.34921.5%23.6%24About league average vs these
Changeup7%90.2+14″ / +10″.306.32418.9%23.5%42About league average vs these; rarely misses them
Curveball7%80.7-9″ / -7″.298.31622.9%25.7%20About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ozzie Albies · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G513.083.154.083.123.09746.2%0.0%28.1%80.597.80.0%16.7%0.0%
Last 15 G1340.135.175.297.206.18627.5%2.5%29.4%89.3106.20.0%30.8%19.2%
Last 30 G2684.173.238.320.248.24021.4%6.0%21.6%89.3107.21.7%29.3%27.6%
90 days68220.187.259.369.275.23921.4%7.3%21.4%87.0107.23.3%28.3%29.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 152 balls in play
Ground 34%Line drive 18%Fly ball 34%Pop-up 14%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G37.286.286.286.257.1270.0%0.0%9.1%80.898.20.0%14.3%28.6%
Last 15 G820.167.250.167.205.19710.0%10.0%19.1%83.1108.50.0%18.8%18.8%
Last 30 G1540.211.250.237.224.22317.5%5.0%20.8%84.7108.50.0%19.4%29.0%
90 days46111.225.261.314.262.25614.4%5.4%21.7%87.0108.72.2%25.8%32.6%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 89 balls in play
Ground 38%Line drive 18%Fly ball 36%Pop-up 8%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G520.158.200.158.170.10730.0%0.0%23.3%80.698.20.0%15.4%15.4%
Last 15 G1560.145.200.255.206.19021.7%5.0%25.8%86.9108.50.0%26.2%19.0%
Last 30 G30124.186.242.292.240.23420.2%5.6%21.4%87.7108.51.1%25.8%28.1%
90 days79331.200.260.350.271.24519.0%6.6%21.5%87.0108.72.9%27.4%30.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 241 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 18%Fly ball 35%Pop-up 12%
Ozzie Albies · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormCold
Contact rating7Bottom tier
Last 100 pitches0trending down
wOBA / xwOBA.270 / .254running 17 points ahead of his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit6/12
2+ total bases2/12
Home run1/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPFastball97.897.8-6.270Out
Sep 25RHPSinker97.088.258.017Out
Sep 24RHPSinker90.080.186.000Out
Sep 24RHPSlider82.764.3-42.142Single
Sep 23LHPChangeup84.991.70.325Single
Sep 23LHPCurveball81.149.942.041Out
Sep 23LHPFastball92.885.034.020Out
Sep 22LHPChangeup87.092.921.268Out
Sep 22LHPFastball95.383.632.025Out
Sep 22LHPCutter90.898.266.028Out
Sep 20RHPSlider90.372.6-5.051Out
Sep 20LHPFastball92.864.246.180Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25300001
Sep 24511003
Sep 23411000
Sep 22400001
Sep 20411001
Sep 19400001
Sep 18400011
Sep 16411011
Sep 15425100
Sep 14400001

Two strikes

Eury Pérez MIA · RHPwith two strikes
Eury Pérez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball29%36%20.0%19.3%18.0%
Sinker26%19%13.6%13.3%17.0%
Slider19%16%34.3%21.4%21.1%
Sweeper12%14%50.0%22.6%19.3%
Changeup7%10%40.7%25.0%18.6%
Curveball7%5%27.8%29.2%20.0%
Other0%1%–0.0%21.7%
Ozzie Albies bats Swith two strikes, vs this hand
Ozzie Albies with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. Makes contact on his two-strike stuff more than most
With two strikesHimLeague
K%37.8%41.0%
Whiff%17.9%21.3%
Contact%82.1%78.7%
Chase%45.5%39.6%
wOBA.248.245
Whiff vs his put-away shapes17.7%21.0%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeFBalanced type
wOBA.282
K%18.5%
BB%6.8%
Whiff%11.9%
Barrel%2.4%
Hard-hit%20.3%
Avg EV87.0

Against right-handers, last 90 days

220 PA
wOBA.279
xwOBA vs this mix.251against pitches like his
RV/100-0.85
Hard-hit%19.8%
K%20.9%
BB%6.7%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Eury PérezRHP · MIA vs ATL
5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.7 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 19.7%20%≤34 strikeouts: 15.3%15%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 15.7%16%67 strikeouts: 12.5%13%78 strikeouts: 8.7%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.2%11%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.4%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%13.8%
Velo92.9
BTB Stuff111
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball29%14598.211.6%
Sinker26%10097.76.6%
Slider19%9888.921.8%
Sweeper12%11183.921.9%
Changeup7%6390.118.8%
Curveball6%9180.78.8%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199715%10%31%.469
Sep 139624%9%24%.340
Sep 79220%12%28%.522

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Eury Pérez MIA · RHPvsATL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ozzie Albies: every projection we've made →