MLBengine v14
← ATL at MIA, Sep 25, 2026
6:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · lineup confirmed
Hitter · ATL · batting 2Ronald Acuña Jr.
Bats rightTalent grade APowerNormal
.353wOBA vs RHP.357xwOBA vs his mix3.9expected PA
Starter · MIAEury Pérez
Throws rightBTB Stuff 111Trending Down
5.6projected K25%K%2.7trips vs this hitter
Eury Pérez's pitches, by how they moveHitter's edgeEvenPitcher's edge
-20-100+10+20-20-100+10+20Arm side →← Glove side↑ Rise (in)Fastball: 29% usage, 98.3 mph, +11.8″ arm side, +18.2″ rise. Ronald Acuña Jr.: wOBA .348 vs league .337 (about even).Fastball 29%Sinker: 26% usage, 97.7 mph, +15.5″ arm side, +13.8″ rise. Ronald Acuña Jr.: wOBA .352 vs league .341 (about even).Sinker 26%Slider: 19% usage, 89.0 mph, +0.1″ arm side, +5.3″ rise. Ronald Acuña Jr.: wOBA .324 vs league .313 (about even).Slider 19%Sweeper: 12% usage, 83.9 mph, -7.0″ arm side, +11.0″ rise. Ronald Acuña Jr.: wOBA .303 vs league .292 (about even).Sweeper 12%Changeup: 7% usage, 90.2 mph, +14.3″ arm side, +10.2″ rise. Ronald Acuña Jr.: wOBA .350 vs league .339 (about even).Changeup 7%Curveball: 7% usage, 80.7 mph, -8.6″ arm side, -6.7″ rise. Ronald Acuña Jr.: wOBA .301 vs league .290 (about even).Curveball 7%

Bubble size is how often he throws it. Color is Ronald Acuña Jr.'s wOBA against pitches shaped like it, compared with league. Hover a pitch for the numbers; the table below has all of them.

Ronald Acuña Jr.'s last 40 balls in playHit (15)Out (25)Barrel zone
sweet spot 8–32°-40°-20°0°20°40°60°80°6070809010011012095 mph hard hitExit velocity (mph)Out: 92.2 mph at 21°Out: 80.6 mph at 0°Out: 88.0 mph at 5°Out: 104.1 mph at 24°Single: 100.5 mph at -25°Out: 83.4 mph at 31°Single: 103.6 mph at 21°Out: 103.5 mph at 39°Out: 82.0 mph at 30°Single: 42.1 mph at -37°Out: 49.3 mph at -7°Single: 90.4 mph at 13°Out: 72.7 mph at -5°Home run: 105.1 mph at 26°Out: 60.6 mph at -24°Out: 69.3 mph at 73°Home run: 111.0 mph at 21°Out: 82.6 mph at 48°Double: 105.8 mph at 24°Single: 66.9 mph at 27°Home run: 105.8 mph at 23°Out: 75.6 mph at -7°Out: 99.6 mph at 48°Out: 93.6 mph at -20°Out: 55.0 mph at 23°Out: 104.1 mph at 3°Out: 75.4 mph at 34°Out: 85.7 mph at 59°Single: 94.7 mph at 14°Single: 77.5 mph at 11°Out: 95.0 mph at 31°Single: 91.8 mph at 14°Home run: 108.0 mph at 44°Single: 77.0 mph at -51°Out: 49.4 mph at 10°Double: 106.6 mph at 13°Out: 85.6 mph at 43°Out: 94.4 mph at -17°Out: 88.6 mph at 70°Out: 62.2 mph at 1°
33% hit 95+ mph45% in the sweet spot38% fell for hits
MarketBTBWithout the matchupMatchup
1+ hit64.2%66.6%-2.4
2+ total bases39.2%42.1%-2.9
Home run15.6%18.5%-2.9
Matchup: points this starter, his pitch mix, the bullpen and the park add or take away, against the same hitter over the same trips facing league-average opposition. "Without the matchup" takes them back out.
What moves the number
1+ hit
Starter
-2.5
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
+0.0
Park
-0.6
2+ total bases
Starter
-2.5
Pitch mix
+0.7
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-1.1
Home run
Starter
-1.7
Pitch mix
+0.4
Bullpen
-0.0
Park
-1.5

Points each piece adds or takes away. The pitch-mix piece is folded into the fitted model when it scores the pair, so it often reads zero.

Zone battle

where he pitches, where Ronald Acuña Jr. hits
Ronald Acuña Jr. · hot and cold vs RHP
xwOBA .234 shrunk (raw .166 on 7 PA) · league .274 · 26 pitches seen.234xwOBA .295 shrunk (raw .280 on 9 PA) · league .307 · 34 pitches seen.295xwOBA .376 shrunk (raw .499 on 11 PA) · league .263 · 20 pitches seen.376xwOBA .404 shrunk (raw .471 on 11 PA) · league .342 · 30 pitches seen.404xwOBA .505 shrunk (raw .648 on 10 PA) · league .386 · 41 pitches seen.505xwOBA .367 shrunk (raw .410 on 13 PA) · league .321 · 35 pitches seen.367xwOBA .311 shrunk (raw .316 on 9 PA) · league .308 · 21 pitches seen.311xwOBA .354 shrunk (raw .357 on 11 PA) · league .351 · 26 pitches seen.354xwOBA .396 shrunk (raw .465 on 18 PA) · league .292 · 41 pitches seen.396xwOBA .383 shrunk (raw .392 on 8 PA) · league .377 · 75 pitches seen.383xwOBA .173 shrunk (raw .093 on 15 PA) · league .274 · 55 pitches seen.173xwOBA .301 shrunk (raw .332 on 15 PA) · league .263 · 49 pitches seen.301xwOBA .286 shrunk (raw .291 on 28 PA) · league .274 · 171 pitches seen.286
vs RHP · 624 pitches · catcher's view
Whiff 28% of 18 swings · league 22%28%Whiff 35% of 23 swings · league 20%35%Whiff 13% of 15 swings · league 19%13%Whiff 21% of 24 swings · league 10%21%Whiff 12% of 33 swings · league 9%12%Whiff 21% of 28 swings · league 11%21%Whiff 11% of 18 swings · league 14%11%Whiff 17% of 24 swings · league 13%17%Whiff 12% of 34 swings · league 17%12%Whiff 29% of 17 swings · league 28%29%Whiff 65% of 23 swings · league 24%65%Whiff 26% of 27 swings · league 32%26%Whiff 49% of 55 swings · league 49%49%
vs RHP · 624 pitches · catcher's view
Swings at 69% of 26 pitches · league 62%69%Swings at 68% of 34 pitches · league 72%68%Swings at 75% of 20 pitches · league 66%75%Swings at 80% of 30 pitches · league 70%80%Swings at 81% of 41 pitches · league 76%81%Swings at 80% of 35 pitches · league 70%80%Swings at 86% of 21 pitches · league 65%86%Swings at 92% of 26 pitches · league 68%92%Swings at 83% of 41 pitches · league 60%83%Swings at 23% of 75 pitches · league 24%23%Swings at 42% of 55 pitches · league 34%42%Swings at 55% of 49 pitches · league 40%55%Swings at 32% of 171 pitches · league 32%32%
vs RHP · 624 pitches · catcher's view

better for him than the league in that spot worse. Faded cells have little sample. Last 90 days; zone drawn at a fixed 1.5–3.5 ft.

Pitch by pitch

Ronald Acuña Jr. against each of Eury Pérez's pitches
His pitchUsageVeloMovementHis wOBALeagueHis whiff%LeagueSampleRead
Fastball29%98.3+12″ / +18″.348.33724.7%19.7%44About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sinker26%97.7+16″ / +14″.352.34116.6%13.0%48About league average vs these
Slider19%89.0+0″ / +5″.324.31334.3%27.8%22About league average vs these; misses them more than most
Sweeper12%83.9-7″ / +11″.303.29239.3%32.5%16About league average vs these
Changeup7%90.2+14″ / +10″.350.33921.9%18.6%32About league average vs these
Curveball7%80.7-9″ / -7″.301.29034.8%28.7%14About league average vs these
Matched by shape: every pitch in our history that moved like each of the starter's pitches, not just ones with the same name. Movement is horizontal / induced vertical break in inches. Display only; the fitted model reads the matchup its own way.

Statcast

opens on right-handers, the hand he faces tonight
Ronald Acuña Jr. · by window and pitcher handthrough Sep 25, 2026 · windows are his last games
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G417.357.471.571.506.53211.8%17.6%19.2%86.0105.125.0%41.7%41.7%
Last 15 G1450.283.340.522.388.42712.0%8.0%16.5%85.7111.015.0%35.0%37.5%
Last 30 G2798.318.378.568.416.39817.3%9.2%24.1%88.4111.912.7%40.8%35.2%
90 days50166.255.307.471.353.35723.5%6.6%27.7%90.3111.911.4%47.4%36.0%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 114 balls in play
Ground 41%Line drive 26%Fly ball 22%Pop-up 11%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G22.000.000.000.000.1030.0%0.0%37.5%82.783.40.0%0.0%100.0%
Last 15 G814.308.357.615.411.32228.6%7.1%34.2%84.3108.011.1%33.3%66.7%
Last 30 G1733.276.364.448.358.33021.2%12.1%25.3%91.3115.29.1%40.9%54.5%
90 days3163.286.365.536.387.36617.5%11.1%23.0%87.2115.28.9%37.8%42.2%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 45 balls in play
Ground 36%Line drive 29%Fly ball 27%Pop-up 9%
WindowGPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAK%BB%Whiff%Avg EVMax EVBarrel%Hard-hit%Sweet-spot%
Last 5 G519.312.421.500.453.48710.5%15.8%23.5%85.5105.121.4%35.7%50.0%
Last 15 G1564.288.344.542.393.40415.6%7.8%21.7%85.4111.014.3%34.7%42.9%
Last 30 G30131.308.374.538.402.38018.3%9.9%24.4%89.1115.211.8%40.9%39.8%
90 days53229.263.323.488.362.36021.8%7.9%26.4%89.4115.210.7%44.7%37.7%
Batted-ball mix, 90 days · 159 balls in play
Ground 40%Line drive 27%Fly ball 23%Pop-up 10%
Ronald Acuña Jr. · percentile ranksvs 210 hitters on the slate with 60+ PA · last 90 days

Right is always better for the hitter: K% and whiff are ranked low-to-high. Context only; a percentile isn't a projection.

FormNormal
Contact rating92Top tier
Last 100 pitches100trending up
wOBA / xwOBA.359 / .369results in line with his contact
Last 12 games, oldest to newest
Hit9/12
2+ total bases8/12
Home run4/12

Context only. Streaks and hot or cold labels don't move a projection: in our tests recent results didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season.

Recent contact

Last 12 balls in play. Hard hit is 95+ mph; the sweet spot is a launch angle of 8 to 32 degrees.
DatePitcherPitchVeloEVLAxwOBAResult
Sep 25RHPSweeper85.592.221.264Out
Sep 25RHPSlider91.180.60.177Out
Sep 25RHPSlider89.288.05.372Error
Sep 24RHPSinker90.2104.1241.367Out
Sep 24RHPFastball97.7100.5-25.091Single
Sep 24LHPFastball98.083.431.086Out
Sep 24RHPSlider81.7103.621.954Single
Sep 24RHPFastball94.0103.539.615Out
Sep 22LHPCutter92.582.030.120Out
Sep 20RHPSinker95.642.1-37.282Single
Sep 20RHPSinker97.249.3-7.129Out
Sep 19RHPSinker93.490.413.882Single
Last 10 games.
DatePAHTBHRBBK
Sep 25400001
Sep 24522000
Sep 22100000
Sep 20411011
Sep 19525120
Sep 18514101
Sep 16423002
Sep 15514101
Sep 14500011
Sep 13522001

Two strikes

Eury Pérez MIA · RHPwith two strikes
Eury Pérez with two strikes. Put-away: share of two-strike pitches that end the at-bat with a strikeout.
PitchOverall2 strikesWhiff%Put-awayLeague put-away
Fastball29%36%20.0%19.3%18.0%
Sinker26%19%13.6%13.3%17.0%
Slider19%16%34.3%21.4%21.1%
Sweeper12%14%50.0%22.6%19.3%
Changeup7%10%40.7%25.0%18.6%
Curveball7%5%27.8%29.2%20.0%
Other0%1%–0.0%21.7%
Ronald Acuña Jr. bats Rwith two strikes, vs this hand
Ronald Acuña Jr. with two strikes against this hand, shrunk toward league. About league average vs his two-strike stuff
With two strikesHimLeague
K%45.0%42.4%
Whiff%24.6%22.2%
Contact%75.4%77.8%
Chase%37.3%39.9%
wOBA.229.237
Whiff vs his put-away shapes23.0%20.6%

The hitter

season-level talent read
Talent gradeAPower type
wOBA.379
K%22.1%
BB%10.2%
Whiff%13.6%
Barrel%7.8%
Hard-hit%31.1%
Avg EV89.7

Against right-handers, last 90 days

162 PA
wOBA.353
xwOBA vs this mix.357against pitches like his
RV/1000.69
Hard-hit%32.4%
K%23.2%
BB%8.0%

Talent blends this season with last season, shrunk toward league average where the sample is thin. Recent hot or cold streaks are not weighted: in our tests they didn't predict the next two weeks better than the season does.

The starter he faces
Eury PérezRHP · MIA vs ATL
5.6projected strikeouts · likely 3 to 9 · 23.7 batters over 5.6 innings
≤3 strikeouts: 19.7%20%≤34 strikeouts: 15.3%15%45 strikeouts: 16.9%17%56 strikeouts: 15.7%16%67 strikeouts: 12.5%13%78 strikeouts: 8.7%9%89+ strikeouts: 11.2%11%9+book 5.5
Over 5.5: 48% (red bars) · under: 52%. Chance of each exact strikeout total, from the served distribution.
K%25.4%
BB%11.1%
Whiff%13.8%
Velo92.9
BTB Stuff111
Location97
PitchUsageBTB Stuff 60 · 100 · 140VeloWhiff
Fastball29%14598.211.6%
Sinker26%10097.76.6%
Slider19%9888.921.8%
Sweeper12%11183.921.9%
Changeup7%6390.118.8%
Curveball6%9180.78.8%
Other0%––0.0%
Last 3 startsTrending Down
DatePitchesK%Whiff%Hard-hit%wOBA
Sep 199715%10%31%.469
Sep 139624%9%24%.340
Sep 79220%12%28%.522

Season numbers from the last 90 days of Statcast. BTB Stuff and Location read on a scale where 100 is league average. Recent starts are context; the projection doesn't weight them.

Eury Pérez MIA · RHPvsATL lineupstrikeout rate vs his hand

2 of 9 strike out more than the average hitter tonight

Strikeout rate against right-handers over the last 90 days (season rate where the split is missing). Line: tonight's average hitter, 22.5%. Red strikes out more, blue less.

The rest of the gameATL @ MIA →Both lineups, bullpens, the pitch-mix battles and park air.Ronald Acuña Jr.: every projection we've made →